ATL: SALLY - Models
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
HWRF 18z paints a pretty serious flooding situation, particularly in Alabama?
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
HWRF peaks in 72-75 hours near Cat 3 intensity before turning to the west and crawling across the coast as a weakening C1/TS.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
One thing that is for sure: this will be a very wet storm - both for storm surge and especially for rainfall.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
Ivanhater wrote:Anyone have access to 18z Euro?
I don't, but I'd pay for it if I knew exactly where to get it.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
It looks like shear does pick up after landfall. I think any models that bring it far west is as a weakening/remant low.
18z euro?
18z euro?
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Michael
Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
CrazyC83 wrote:One thing that is for sure: this will be a very wet storm - both for storm surge and especially for rainfall.
If the HWRF verified, pushing slowly due east from the panhandle, you'd see piles of water getting into Lake Pontchartrain. That would not be good.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
SoupBone wrote:Ivanhater wrote:Anyone have access to 18z Euro?
I don't, but I'd pay for it if I knew exactly where to get it.
I think Aric and a couple others do.
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Michael
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
Ivanhater wrote:It looks like shear does pick up after landfall. I think any models that bring it far west is as a weakening/remant low.
18z euro?
Moves it more NNW from near Ft. Myers to about 75 miles South of Apalachicola @ 1002mb then moves it due West and stalls from 63hrs to 68hrs as far as has loaded so far due South of P'Cola about 100miles. Presssure still 1002mb with winds gusting to near 70mph.
Last edited by Dean4Storms on Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
Here is the 18Z GFS shear animation through day 5. Notice the shear currently at hour 0, then the shear relaxes over the EGOM and picks up again along the northern Gulf coast by days 4 and 5:
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
Wow....18z ECMWF with a stall South of P'Cola from hour 63 thru 80hr so far. A TS @ 1002mb with winds gusting to 70mph just offshore.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
Dean4Storms wrote:Wow....18z ECMWF with a stall South of P'Cola from hour 63 thru 80hr so far. A TS @ 1002mb with winds gusting to 70mph just offshore.
Thanks for posting the 18z euro
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Michael
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
Takeaways with Euro track.....much more of a NNW track toward Apalachicola before a turn West then a stall south of P'Cola. I'm not buying the intensity however and that gives me a concern for Panama City area to P'Cola as I would expect a deeper storm than 1002mb and you have to wonder about that turn.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
You can get the 18z Euro ensembles for free in a hour. At weathernerds
Ivanhater wrote:Dean4Storms wrote:Wow....18z ECMWF with a stall South of P'Cola from hour 63 thru 80hr so far. A TS @ 1002mb with winds gusting to 70mph just offshore.
Thanks for posting the 18z euro
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
00Z Early track models
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Michael
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
Dean4Storms wrote:Wow....18z ECMWF with a stall South of P'Cola from hour 63 thru 80hr so far. A TS @ 1002mb with winds gusting to 70mph just offshore.
Wow...Elena flashbacks anyone??
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
Salute!
I am remembering tracks like Erin (95) or Elena (85) ( tho Elena did a loop in the gulf before making up her mind). And then Betsy, that looped in the Atlantic then grazed the Keys then headed to NOLA.
This thing worries me, here in the Pnhandle.
Gums sends...
I am remembering tracks like Erin (95) or Elena (85) ( tho Elena did a loop in the gulf before making up her mind). And then Betsy, that looped in the Atlantic then grazed the Keys then headed to NOLA.
This thing worries me, here in the Pnhandle.
Gums sends...
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
00Z Icon finally on board. Landfall around Mobile
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Michael
Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
Ivanhater wrote:00Z Icon finally on board. Landfall around Mobilehttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200912/339329f1613809df1537b298b6fa878e.jpg
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GFS too
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