ATL: DELTA - Models

[kevin]

12z GFS run is a bit stronger than 06z and has a 996 mbar TS near the tip of Cuba at 60 hours. Gamma is also further South, pretty much over Yucatan and weaker.

[Steve]

I agree with wxman57. Though I do think we have to credit the HRWF depictions were solid, especially within 72 hours. This is where the models are this morning:

ICON 12z - 92L rotates up into SELA washing out but with some strong convection. Mid-upper energy shears off toward the NNE as a stronger (than 92L) Gamma comes up toward the Mouth of the MS River heading also NNE though it stops the weakening circulation at the coast and washes it out too. That would still be pretty cool though obviously not a destructive series of hits.

GFS-parallel 06z - rotates up 92L and weakens it south of Lake Charles into nothing. Brings up a re-fortified Gamma in the 970's up near Morgan City next Sunday around noon. It's weakening but formidable.

GFS 12z - This is strange so far. I think it's having issues with the multiple systems. Gamma pulls into the BoC and fades out. 92L takes over and is moving NW across the Gulf but gets to about 91W and hooks NE toward Plaquemines Parish. Just prior, some energy (presumably originally from 92L) hits SE LA. Maybe that was some leftover upper or mid-level energy or something. Run is out to 120 so whether it hits the mouth of the river and goes on toward MS/Al/FL is yet unknown.

HWRF 06z - Takes 92L into the low 970's and hits Plaquemines Parish Friday morning. Oddly enough, it also has Gamma getting ready to hit around the same area a day or so after.

I'll take a look at stuff later tonight and see what's up. We're supposed to be blowing out next Sunday for Asheville, and it's paid for. While it would be cool to get a couple days of tropical storms before we roll out, this is one time I hope we don't get much here in New Orleans.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS

Sent from my LM-G900TM using Tapatalk

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1312787047640432645

[ronjon]

Models still struggling with ultimate strength of 92L and interaction with Gamma. Seems the GFS/HWRF are in one camp with others way far field like ICON, NAVGEM, CMC, and Euro. Last Euro run doesn't even develop 92L into more than a wave. Hopefully we'll get some model consistency in the next few cycles.

[LarryWx]

12Z CMC is bizarre!!!! It develops 92L into a TS and gets to 150 S of SE LA Thu night while TS Gamma sits in the BoC. Then Gamma moves N, eats up 92L, and then Gamma moves NE and LFs at Pensacola next Sun as a strong TS, which then moves N into S AL, stops, and weakens. Between the 2 storms, the SE US rainfall is very high! IF this were close to reality, we’d be looking at major flooding in areas already hit very hard by Sally.

[Emmett_Brown]

Funny, we have seen so many fujiwara scenarios in 2020 that we have become sort of indifferent to how interesting this setup is... two TC's interacting in the GOM, with light steering currents. A lot can happen! I think the recent 12Z GFS looks pretty realistic... has Gamma moving little and weakening while Delta boldly enters and absorbs it. Interested to see the next ensemble runs.

[NDG]

So far the 12z HWRF is stronger at 36 hrs than its previous 06z run. Makes it a hurricane by tomorrow night east of the Cayman Islands.

[NDG]

12Z CMC is bizarre!!!! It develops 92L into a TS and gets to 150 S of SE LA Thu night while TS Gamma sits in the BoC. Then Gamma moves N, eats up 92L, and then Gamma moves NE and LFs at Pensacola next Sun as a strong TS, which then moves N into S AL, stops, and weakens. Between the 2 storms, the SE US rainfall is very high! IF this were close to reality, we’d be looking at major flooding in areas already hit very hard by Sally.

CMC has become a joke once again during the past couple of months or so.

[LarryWx]

Funny, we have seen so many fujiwara scenarios in 2020 that we have become sort of indifferent to how interesting this setup is... two TC's interacting in the GOM, with light steering currents. A lot can happen! I think the recent 12Z GFS looks pretty realistic... has Gamma moving little and weakening while Delta boldly enters and absorbs it. Interested to see the next ensemble runs.

The 12Z GEFS is the most active of at least the last 4 and one of most active ever for CONUS with about half the 31 members hitting the area between S of Galveston and Panama City with a TS+ and with 7 of the 31 being a H. Highest impact days 10/8-11 with heavy rainfall over much of SE US.

[supercane4867]

12z HWRF rapidly intensifies it in the NW Caribbean

[NDG]

[Nimbus]

12z HWRF rapidly intensifies it in the NW Caribbean

Crosses Cuba near La Jaula.
The placement of the high over the Southeast means tropical airmass from the Southeast moves back into the gulf coast ahead of 92L(if that ridging alignment doesn't change next run).

[LarryWx]

12Z CMC is bizarre!!!! It develops 92L into a TS and gets to 150 S of SE LA Thu night while TS Gamma sits in the BoC. Then Gamma moves N, eats up 92L, and then Gamma moves NE and LFs at Pensacola next Sun as a strong TS, which then moves N into S AL, stops, and weakens. Between the 2 storms, the SE US rainfall is very high! IF this were close to reality, we’d be looking at major flooding in areas already hit very hard by Sally.

CMC has become a joke once again during the past couple of months or so.

True but the 12Z UK is somewhat similar though slower as 92L falls apart in NW Gulf while Gamma regenerates to the S and starts moving N as a restrengthening TC!

[NDG]

12Z CMC is bizarre!!!! It develops 92L into a TS and gets to 150 S of SE LA Thu night while TS Gamma sits in the BoC. Then Gamma moves N, eats up 92L, and then Gamma moves NE and LFs at Pensacola next Sun as a strong TS, which then moves N into S AL, stops, and weakens. Between the 2 storms, the SE US rainfall is very high! IF this were close to reality, we’d be looking at major flooding in areas already hit very hard by Sally.

CMC has become a joke once again during the past couple of months or so.

True but the 12Z UK is somewhat similar though slower as 92L falls apart in NW Gulf while Gamma regenerates to the S and starts moving N as a restrengthening TC!

UKMET, another model that has not done well this year.

[supercane4867]

Probably the smallest eye depicted by the HWRF all season. Such structure would likely allow for explosive deepening over very warm waters of W Caribbean and Southern Gulf.

[SoupBone]

I think the HWRF track looks good, but I think it's intensity is WAY too strong in the northern Gulf. We have it weakening to a TD or a remnant low near SE LA Friday. HWRF says 82 kts. For Marco, with a similar setup, it was predicting 89 kts near SE LA, when all that remained was a remnant swirl of clouds. Conditions across the northern Gulf do not look favorable at all.

92L:
http://wxman57.com/images/HWRF06ZOCT4.JPG

Marco HWRF:
http://wxman57.com/images/MarcoHWRF.JPG

What would be protecting SE TExas on these runs? Wasn't the Euro showing a SE Texas hit recently?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Models still struggling with ultimate strength of 92L and interaction with Gamma. Seems the GFS/HWRF are in one camp with others way far field like ICON, NAVGEM, CMC, and Euro. Last Euro run doesn't even develop 92L into more than a wave. Hopefully we'll get some model consistency in the next few cycles.

The Euro has been really bad with TC Genesis this whole season. It never developed Gamma at all

[aspen]

Both the HWRF and HMON have trended significantly further south for their 12z runs. The HWRF only clips the SW tip of Cuba, and the HMON is so far south, Delta makes landfall in the NE Yucatán. Both are also much stronger, but a different points — a 960s major approaching Cuba for the HWRF and a 940s-950s Cat 3/4 in the Gulf for the HWRF.

[NDG]

Anything the dethroned king Euro shows with tropical systems past 48-72 hrs need to be thrown out.