WPAC: MOLAVE - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

Weather station - Guinobatan, Albay

Rapid Scan

[mrbagyo]

JMA with its so so 45 knots

TS 2018 (Molave)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 25 October 2020

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 25 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°30' (13.5°)
E126°25' (126.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 220 km (120 NM)
SW 165 km (90 NM)

[euro6208]

Looks like we have a close eyewall on microwave. At least a Cat 2 now.

[aspen]

Looks like we have a close eyewall on microwave. At least a Cat 2 now.

I think a 65-75 kt Cat 1 is a safe bet right now. Could have an argument for Cat 2 by the time it makes landfall.

[1900hurricane]

WP, 21, 2020102500, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1263E, 55, 994, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 70, 90, 100, 1008, 150, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, MOLAVE, D,
WP, 21, 2020102500, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1263E, 55, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 20, 20, 1008, 150, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, MOLAVE, D,

[ElectricStorm]

WP, 21, 2020102500, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1263E, 55, 994, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 70, 90, 100, 1008, 150, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, MOLAVE, D,
WP, 21, 2020102500, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1263E, 55, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 20, 20, 1008, 150, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, MOLAVE, D,

Still too low IMO. Should be at least 65kts

[aspen]

Nice eyewall, although it’s rather big.

[mrbagyo]

PAGASA should raise Signal Number 3 in some parts of Bicol Region (Albay, Catanduanes, Sorsogon) on their 11 AM bulletin. landfall is within 12 hrs and this is clearly a typhoon now and still intensifying.

PS: Lead time for Signal 3 (typhoon condition) is 18 hrs.

[underthwx]

WP, 21, 2020102500, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1263E, 55, 994, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 70, 90, 100, 1008, 150, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, MOLAVE, D,
WP, 21, 2020102500, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1263E, 55, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 20, 20, 1008, 150, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, MOLAVE, D,

Still too low IMO. Should be at least 65kts

Yes....I agree with that for sure....

[euro6208]

Usually you have these high intensity TC's with no hint of an eye but I see Mojave has an eye on satellite so I'm thinking between 85 to 100 knots.

[ElectricStorm]

Usually you have these high intensity TC's with no hint of an eye but I see Mojave has an eye on satellite so I'm thinking between 85 to 100 knots.

Nah not quite that high yet I don't think. But certainly 65-75 kts

[euro6208]

Usually you have these high intensity TC's with no hint of an eye but I see Mojave has an eye on satellite so I'm thinking between 85 to 100 knots.

Nah not quite that high yet I don't think. But certainly 65-75 kts

Recon has confirmed this can happen...You have a closed eye wall on microwave and cyan ring which indicates rapid strengthening.

[doomhaMwx]

JTWC expects it to remain a TY throughout passage over Southern Luzon.

[Hayabusa]

...

TS 2018 (Molave)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 25 October 2020

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 25 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°25' (13.4°)
E125°40' (125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 220 km (120 NM)
SW 165 km (90 NM)

[dexterlabio]

...

TS 2018 (Molave)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 25 October 2020

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 25 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°25' (13.4°)
E125°40' (125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 220 km (120 NM)
SW 165 km (90 NM)

My goodness

[doomhaMwx]

...

TS 2018 (Molave)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 25 October 2020

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 25 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°25' (13.4°)
E125°40' (125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 220 km (120 NM)
SW 165 km (90 NM)

My goodness

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

45kt is quite the underestimation, even with the lack of recon to confirm wind speeds.

Something around 75-80kt is reasonable, based upon current structure and appearance.

[doomhaMwx]

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10250048
SATCON: MSLP = 987 hPa MSW = 64 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 63.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 67 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 150 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 994 hPa 55 knots Scene: CDO Date: OCT250230
CIMSS AMSU: 983 hPa 71 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 10250048
ATMS: 995.0 hPa 39.6 knots Date: 10241725
SSMIS: 987.7 hPa 51.7 knots Date: 10241725
CIRA ATMS: 982 hPa 66 knots Date: 10241636

SATCON ~65kts at 21Z and 00Z

[mrbagyo]

This dude is headed directly for the core. I wonder what's goin on there?

[ejeraldmc]

It's definitely a typhoon. Getting better each frame. What are the agencies doing lol