ATL: ETA - Models

[kevin]

The 12z GFS ensemble splits at ~100 hours between a cluster making landfall in CA and a cluster going NW. The CA cluster seems to have 13/21 members (62%) and the NW cluster has 8/21 members (38%). So a CA landfall is the most likely option at this point, but definitely not a done deal yet. We'll have to monitor the models closely the next few days.

[Spacecoast]

The 12z GFS ensemble splits at ~100 hours between a cluster making landfall in CA and a cluster going NW. The CA cluster seems to have 13/21 members (62%) and the NW cluster has 8/21 members (38%). So a CA landfall is the most likely option at this point, but definitely not a done deal yet. We'll have to monitor the models closely the next few days.

New GEFS should have total of ~31 members, correct?

[kevin]

The 12z GFS ensemble splits at ~100 hours between a cluster making landfall in CA and a cluster going NW. The CA cluster seems to have 13/21 members (62%) and the NW cluster has 8/21 members (38%). So a CA landfall is the most likely option at this point, but definitely not a done deal yet. We'll have to monitor the models closely the next few days.

New GEFS should have total of ~31 members, correct?

That could be the case, I'm not sure. I counted 8 or 9 members going NW so I just subtracted that number from 21 to get the # of CA landfalling members, but the ratios might be even more in favor of a CA landfall is it's indeed ~31 members atm. GFS (has) had 21 members for such a long time now that I didn't even think about it.

[Spacecoast]

The 12z GFS ensemble splits at ~100 hours between a cluster making landfall in CA and a cluster going NW. The CA cluster seems to have 13/21 members (62%) and the NW cluster has 8/21 members (38%). So a CA landfall is the most likely option at this point, but definitely not a done deal yet. We'll have to monitor the models closely the next few days.

New GEFS should have total of ~31 members, correct?

That could be the case, I'm not sure. I counted 8 or 9 members going NW so I just subtracted that number from 21 to get the # of CA landfalling members, but the ratios might be even more in favor of a CA landfall is it's indeed ~31 members atm. GFS (has) had 21 members for such a long time now that I didn't even think about it.

Yes, new GEFS has 30 members (AP01-AP30), plus 1 control (AC00), plus 1 Ensemble mean (AEMN). Not sure whether TT displays AC00, and/or AEMN, though.
Tropical Atlantic displays all 32 members, but graphic is delayed somewhat.

[Shell Mound]

Looking better for the U.S. Not good news for CA, though. They're going to get the brunt of it.

If anything, the operational models, especially ICON and the GFS-Parallel, are farther north now than they’ve been in several cycles. Ensembles still favour a path just offshore of CA. Plus, the current rate of organisation, which is considerably faster than forecast, would also favour a track farther north, toward the Gulf of Honduras. I wouldn’t dismiss the threat to the mainland U.S., particularly Florida, at this stage. Current trends as well as climatology for early November look to favour a track farther north.

[Fancy1001]

Both HWRF and HMON are already ramping this one up.

[Fancy1001]

HWRF has it decently Northeast of HMON though.

[kevin]

12z HMON landfall:

[Nimbus]

18Z HWRF same landfall as a major hurricane.
Not a good start for the models.

[aspen]

18Z HWRF same landfall as a major hurricane.
Not a good start for the models.

And it has a pinhole too. Due to its success with predicting Goni’s <10 mile wide eye and its overall success with storm structure this year...this is pretty concerning.

[kevin]

12z HWRF even more intense than HMON. Maybe it's just me, but I feel every recent storm has exceeded its initial model runs so the fact that HMON and HWRF start with a cat 3/4 is very concerning.

[aspen]

This is one of the most aggressive Atlantic HWRF runs this year, and also the most terrifying simulated IR view of 2020. Not even Laura, Delta, Goni, or Atsani had a full pink ring from the HWRF.

[AutoPenalti]

I still don't think this goes into CA, deep level steering is weak at this stage.

[Shell Mound]

18Z HWRF same landfall as a major hurricane.
Not a good start for the models.

And it has a pinhole too. Due to its success with predicting Goni’s <10 mile wide eye and its overall success with storm structure this year...this is pretty concerning.

How far inland does it track on the HWRF? What is the movement around the time of landfall? The Miskito Coast is quite flat, similar to the Everglades.

[kevin]

Considering I said something similar with Delta take this with a grain of salt, but I think this might be 2020's last chance at a cat 5 and perhaps also its biggest chance all season together with Delta. Especially if this forms earlier than expected, there doesn't seem to be anything in the way of future Eta that can prevent it from bombing out in the Caribbean.

[aspen]

18Z HWRF same landfall as a major hurricane.
Not a good start for the models.

And it has a pinhole too. Due to its success with predicting Goni’s <10 mile wide eye and its overall success with storm structure this year...this is pretty concerning.

How far inland does it track on the HWRF? What is the movement around the time of landfall? The Miskito Coast is quite flat, similar to the Everglades.

The HWRF has a WNW track until midday Monday, when it slows a bit and takes a dive to the SW. Close to landfall, it's tracking nearly parallel to the CA coast, giving it more time over water.

[ElectricStorm]

:double:
This is one of the most aggressive Atlantic HWRF runs this year, and also the most terrifying simulated IR view of 2020. Not even Laura, Delta, Goni, or Atsani had a full pink ring from the HWRF.
https://i.imgur.com/G3FJ3mF.png
https://i.imgur.com/kjDHSUY.png

Now THAT is concerning considering the HWRF has nailed the structure is most strong storms this year, including 155kt Goni in the WPAC. If there's no pesky mid level shear, Eta may have a shot to become the storm of the season in the Atlantic, assuming it develops quickly

[Shell Mound]

And it has a pinhole too. Due to its success with predicting Goni’s <10 mile wide eye and its overall success with storm structure this year...this is pretty concerning.

How far inland does it track on the HWRF? What is the movement around the time of landfall? The Miskito Coast is quite flat, similar to the Everglades.

The HWRF has a WNW track until midday Monday, when it slows a bit and takes a dive to the SW. Close to landfall, it's tracking nearly parallel to the CA coast, giving it more time over water.

If that’s the case, then this could easily make a brief landfall near Cabo Gracias a Dios and then move back into the Gulf of Honduras, threatening Cuba/FL.

Technically, given how marshy the Miskito Coast is, this system could easily recover from a brief rendezvous with Cabo Gracias a Dios. Mountains are inland.

[boca]

How far inland does it track on the HWRF? What is the movement around the time of landfall? The Miskito Coast is quite flat, similar to the Everglades.

The HWRF has a WNW track until midday Monday, when it slows a bit and takes a dive to the SW. Close to landfall, it's tracking nearly parallel to the CA coast, giving it more time over water.

If that’s the case, then this could easily make a brief landfall near Cabo Gracias a Dios and then move back into the Gulf of Honduras, threatening Cuba/FL.

Technically, given how marshy the Miskito Coast is, this system could easily recover from a brief rendezvous with Cabo Gracias a Dios. Mountains are inland.

It depends on how fast that sprawling high pressure breaks down after Monday’s cold front.

[NDG]

12z Euro, past its 72-96 hrs I don't believe it, 96L will either go the EPAC or stay in C.A./GOH area, there is no way another system would develop that fast in the GOH.