ATL: IOTA - Models

[AutoPenalti]

HMON 908mb...

HWRF is at 945...

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON ends run at 908mb


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[SouthFLTropics]

Interesting that HMON and HWRF neither take a dive into Honduras.


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[ClarCari]

I'm amazed at the latitude and strength of the initial runs. For a system that isn't even developed yet...

[tomatkins]

HMON 908mb...

HWRF is at 945...

If the storm ends up anything like this, it plus what is left to get from Eta and Theta could push this season into the top 10 in ACE.

[kevin]

I don't think even Eta or Delta ever went below 910 mbar in any HMON run, so the fact that it does it on the first run now is very alarming. Especially considering the fact that with both Delta and Eta the storms both surpassed their initial HMON/HWRF forecasted peaks. Tbh I'd be more surprised if this didn't become a major than if it did. And I know how crazy it is that I have to say this in mid-November, but I think there is a possibility that this becomes a cat 5. Very far from a certainty since we don't even have a TD yet, but there is a possibility. I know it goes against all climatology to even talk about a cat 5 this late in November, but the conditions in the Caribbean are so favorable right now that I think it overrules the voice in the back of my head saying it's November and that a cat 5 right now is impossible. I thought Delta would become one, but we all know how that ended. Then I was sure that Eta would become one and it might have actually been a cat 5, but I think we're all familiar with Eta's story. And now in mid-November the Atlantic has probably its last shot (I mean I know this is a crazy season but it has to end at some point, right?) at a cat 5.

[kevin]

06z intensity guidance:

[ClarCari]

06z intensity guidance:

https://i.imgur.com/iSpUF64.png

BAHAHA this season can go to hell!

[kevin]

06z models are rolling, let's see what happens this time. HWRF already has a hurricane on Saturday (48 hours).

[chris_fit]

Just wanna say glad pretty my every models keeps this away from the US. My friends in Central America, ughhh. Hang in there, 2020 almost over.

[aspen]

Yikes almighty, that HMOM run

Just about every model has shifted north. Either Iota makes landfall around the Nic-Hond border, or it gets into the Gulf of Honduras. The CMC is back to showing a stronger storm, the GFS-Para took a massive northern shift, and the 06z HWRF is showing a compact/pinhole core. All the signs are now pointing towards another monster storm within the next week.

[Nimbus]

Models are having the same difficulty they had with Eta, surely going to become a storm and probably no luck burying it in Central American mountains before it becomes a hurricane.

[Kazmit]

I'm amazed at the latitude and strength of the initial runs. For a system that isn't even developed yet...

And for a system forming halfway through November.

[supercane4867]

06z HWRF continues to be bullish and north

[Owasso]

HMON

[Loveweather12]

Just wanna say glad pretty my every models keeps this away from the US. My friends in Central America, ughhh. Hang in there, 2020 almost over.

To early to make that assumption as things can change.

[aspen]

06z HWRF and HMON aren’t as strong as the 00z runs, but they both show compact to normal-sized cores and bottom out at 932 mbar and 952 mbar, respectively.

[kevin]

Just took a look at the Eta models thread. The first HWRF and HMON runs had 937 and 947 mbar, respectively. So quite similar to today's runs so far.

[tolakram]

Euro now has a stronger storm, GFS loses it, HWRF strong and north. What a year for the models. At least the euro is mostly trustworthy at less than 120 hours. Mostly, but not always.

[aspen]

Euro now has a stronger storm, GFS loses it, HWRF strong and north. What a year for the models. At least the euro is mostly trustworthy at less than 120 hours. Mostly, but not always.

The GFS also loses everything from 54-168 hours out, because apparently asking a model to load correctly is too much in 2020.