ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

ASCAT misses are the bane of tropical analysis every year

[gatorcane]

Let’s not forget the Euro and GFS show some weak development up to around the NE Lesser Antilles longitude. So this pulsing convection is not a surprise: They both show weakening after that. Fast forward speed and perhaps easterly winds at the 200MB level just north of the Greater Antilles does not allow it to spin up and deepen. It is really hard to go against those two models. They both have 98l near South Florida or the Straits in 5 days. Hard to believe they will miss on intensity this bad and there is a major hurricane or even a hurricane on South Florida’s doorstep in 5 days.

[Kazmit]

I’m gonna guess 5am tomorrow for TD classification. 11pm is too late as Wxman said and NHC typically likes to wait a little anyway to make sure convection sustains.

[DestinHurricane]

I’m gonna guess 5am tomorrow for TD classification. 11pm is too late as Wxman said and NHC typically likes to wait a little anyway to make sure convection sustains.

They classified Isaias at 11 IIRC.

[EquusStorm]

Probably safe to just start putting out PTC advisories as soon as it's within the impact window, no need to jump the gun on TC upgrade until certain since it's not required for watches and warnings now

[AtlanticWind]

Let’s not forget the Euro and GFS show some weak development up to around the NE Lesser Antilles longitude. So this pulsing convection is not a surprise: They both show weakening after that. Fast forward speed and perhaps easterly winds at the 200MB level just north of the Greater Antilles does not allow it to spin up and deepen. It is really hard to go against those two models. They both have 98l near South Florida or the Straits in 5 days. Hard to believe they will miss on intensity this bad and there is a major hurricane or even a hurricane on South Florida’s doorstep in 5 days.

48 hours ago the euro showed a powerful hurricane in the bahamas.
What will the euro show in next 48 hours? Who knows

[StruThiO]

"NHC will lower chances because gfs and ec show no development"

never change s2k

[Nuno]

I’m gonna guess 5am tomorrow for TD classification. 11pm is too late as Wxman said and NHC typically likes to wait a little anyway to make sure convection sustains.

Anecdotally, there's several times advisories have been initiated for storms at 11pm. NHC may not like doing it, but if it meets the formal classification of a storm, they'll initiate advisories and not wait six hours that could be vital.

[eastcoastFL]

Let’s not forget the Euro and GFS show some weak development up to around the NE Lesser Antilles longitude. So this pulsing convection is not a surprise: They both show weakening after that. Fast forward speed and perhaps easterly winds at the 200MB level just north of the Greater Antilles does not allow it to spin up and deepen. It is really hard to go against those two models. They both have 98l near South Florida or the Straits in 5 days. Hard to believe they will miss on intensity this bad and there is a major hurricane or even a hurricane on South Florida’s doorstep in 5 days.

I disagree respectfully. Both models are a complete mess and have been awful this year especially on intensity. I think you’re giving these models waaay too much credit.

[Nuno]

Let’s not forget the Euro and GFS show some weak development up to around the NE Lesser Antilles longitude. So this pulsing convection is not a surprise: They both show weakening after that. Fast forward speed and perhaps easterly winds at the 200MB level just north of the Greater Antilles does not allow it to spin up and deepen. It is really hard to go against those two models. They both have 98l near South Florida or the Straits in 5 days. Hard to believe they will miss on intensity this bad and there is a major hurricane or even a hurricane on South Florida’s doorstep in 5 days.

Honestly, is it hard to believe GFS and Euro, with everything we've seen in recent months, could both just be wrong? Models are just tools, not rules.

[AutoPenalti]

Let’s not forget the Euro and GFS show some weak development up to around the NE Lesser Antilles longitude. So this pulsing convection is not a surprise: They both show weakening after that. Fast forward speed and perhaps easterly winds at the 200MB level just north of the Greater Antilles does not allow it to spin up and deepen. It is really hard to go against those two models. They both have 98l near South Florida or the Straits in 5 days. Hard to believe they will miss on intensity this bad and there is a major hurricane or even a hurricane on South Florida’s doorstep in 5 days.

Let’s not forget a couple of runs ago, the Euro and GFS showed a mid-range Cat 3 threatening the Bahamas before either A) hitting florida or B) going OTS

It’s really hard to put weight into these models which actually struggled.

[SouthFLTropics]

Let’s not forget the Euro and GFS show some weak development up to around the NE Lesser Antilles longitude. So this pulsing convection is not a surprise: They both show weakening after that. Fast forward speed and perhaps easterly winds at the 200MB level just north of the Greater Antilles does not allow it to spin up and deepen. It is really hard to go against those two models. They both have 98l near South Florida or the Straits in 5 days. Hard to believe they will miss on intensity this bad and there is a major hurricane or even a hurricane on South Florida’s doorstep in 5 days.

I disagree respectfully. Both models are a complete mess and have been awful this year especially on intensity. I think you’re giving these models waaay too much credit.

I've gotta go with EastCoastFl here and agree. With the way the Euro and GFS has performed in regards to TCG this year, I have a hard time putting a lot of faith in the operational models. Especially when many of their ensembles are going against them as well. I think the ensembles are what to watch when looking for the trends.

[cheezyWXguy]

Let’s not forget the Euro and GFS show some weak development up to around the NE Lesser Antilles longitude. So this pulsing convection is not a surprise: They both show weakening after that. Fast forward speed and perhaps easterly winds at the 200MB level just north of the Greater Antilles does not allow it to spin up and deepen. It is really hard to go against those two models. They both have 98l near South Florida or the Straits in 5 days. Hard to believe they will miss on intensity this bad and there is a major hurricane or even a hurricane on South Florida’s doorstep in 5 days.

I disagree respectfully. Both models are a complete mess and have been awful this year especially on intensity. I think you’re giving these models waaay too much credit.

It should also be noted that their ensembles are quite a bit more aggressive than their deterministic runs, which I would argue are currently more valuable

[Blown Away]

Really coming together now and gaining latitude...

[ConvergenceZone]

Even Derek Ortt, professional Met was badmouthing the GFS and EURO earlier today,and when he talks I listen, as he used to be very reliable with his analysis and predictions when he use to post on this board

[SouthFLTropics]

Over on the models forum...ICON came in further North and hits Andros as a 989mb storm at 120 hours.

[ExBailbonds]

Must be some serious debate going on at the NHC this afternoon 5:30 and still no update

[DestinHurricane]

Must be some serious debate going on at the NHC this afternoon 5:30 and still no update

What do you mean? TWO come out at 2/8 AM/PM eastern.

[wx98]

Must be some serious debate going on at the NHC this afternoon 5:30 and still no update

Update for what? TWO doesn’t come out until 8 pm EDT.

[ExBailbonds]

Must be some serious debate going on at the NHC this afternoon 5:30 and still no update

Update for what? TWO doesn’t come out until 8 pm EDT.

Ya your right not classified yet. Getting ahead of myself.