ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Recon has entered the outskirts of the storm and will likely do a SW—>NE pass, sampling the maximum winds that the final AF pass didn’t get. Meanwhile, raw TS are up to 7.0, and Teddy has developed a nearly complete W ring.

[northjaxpro]

Recon has entered the outskirts of the storm and will likely do a SW—>NE pass, sampling the maximum winds that the final AF pass didn’t get. Meanwhile, raw TS are up to 7.0, and Teddy has developed a nearly complete W ring.

Yeah, I saw the W ring a short time ago. We may have a Cat 5 this evening folks!

[Kazmit]

Taken shortly before sunset.

[AxaltaRacing24]

the atlantic has had an impressive run of multiple incredible majors year after year since 2015 joaquin, with matthew 2016 starting the cat 5 streak.

[cheezyWXguy]

the atlantic has had an impressive run of multiple incredible majors year after year since 2015 joaquin, with matthew 2016 starting the cat 5 streak.

What’s crazy is that this may not even be the last chance this season. Caribbean season is fast approaching. As someone else said the other day, it’s hard to believe it’s still only mid September

[Shell Mound]

Based on satellite-derived data and trends, I’m guessing reconnaissance will find winds of 130 knots and MSLP in the mid- to upper 930s mb.

[MGC]

Teddy is impressive....2020 wouldn't be complete without a Cat-5. I nominate Teddy to carry the torch.....MGC

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Teddy is impressive....2020 wouldn't be complete without a Cat-5. I nominate Teddy to carry the torch.....MGC

I also think he'll peak at a Cat Five.

[Blinhart]

ACE will be great accumulation with Mighty Teddy, will have to bear it out and watch to see if he can get to Patricia wind speed, looking like he could get to it even if just for a few hours, but will he get to Tip's size and pressure. I don't know if he will be able to get under 900, but will definitely try to. I wouldn't be shocked to see Recon get in there and find wind speeds around 165 MPH and a pressure around 920, by the time it ends its flight.

[Blinhart]

Teddy is impressive....2020 wouldn't be complete without a Cat-5. I nominate Teddy to carry the torch.....MGC

I also think he'll peak at a Cat Five.

Kind of obvious since there is no Cat 6.

[ClarCari]

ACE will be great accumulation with Mighty Teddy, will have to bear it out and watch to see if he can get to Patricia wind speed, looking like he could get to it even if just for a few hours, but will he get to Tip's size and pressure. I don't know if he will be able to get under 900, but will definitely try to. I wouldn't be shocked to see Recon get in there and find wind speeds around 165 MPH and a pressure around 920, by the time it ends its flight.

I think they will find Teddy fosure more intense than Laura and will very much hit Cat.5.
We’ll see with him, but I’m saving my excitement for something to beat Patricia and Tip when something enters the western Caribbean and EXPLODES.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Teddy is impressive....2020 wouldn't be complete without a Cat-5. I nominate Teddy to carry the torch.....MGC

I also think he'll peak at a Cat Five.

Kind of obvious since there is no Cat 6.

Hey, blame the NHC not me for that.

[dukeblue219]

942.0mb extrap and 92kt flight level on the way in

[Blinhart]

I also think he'll peak at a Cat Five.

Kind of obvious since there is no Cat 6.

Hey, blame the NHC not me for that.

I actually agree, I think they need to have a Cat 6 for storms with winds from 180-205 MPH and Cat 7 for storms 205+MPH.

[aspen]

The eye is a little less clear now on IR imagery.

[us89]

ACE will be great accumulation with Mighty Teddy, will have to bear it out and watch to see if he can get to Patricia wind speed, looking like he could get to it even if just for a few hours, but will he get to Tip's size and pressure. I don't know if he will be able to get under 900, but will definitely try to. I wouldn't be shocked to see Recon get in there and find wind speeds around 165 MPH and a pressure around 920, by the time it ends its flight.

I see what you did there...

I don't see this getting anywhere near the intensities of Patricia or Tip. But a solid cat 5 by Atlantic standards is not out of the question.

[ElectricStorm]

Kind of obvious since there is no Cat 6.

Hey, blame the NHC not me for that.

I actually agree, I think they need to have a Cat 6 for storms with winds from 180-205 MPH and Cat 7 for storms 205+MPH.

Nah. The damage of a cat 5 is already complete destruction. No need to add any categories. Same with tornadoes

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/Wx_Geek/status/1306721895451176960



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1306722244362723334



 https://twitter.com/EdgeStorms/status/1306720145763598337



Personally, I doubt that Teddy will reach Cat-5 status. Note that the expanding CDO is hitting a wall of shear to its west. Note the sharp demarcation between cold convective tops and precipitation-free areas. The southern quadrant is struggling to generate strong echoes on radar, indicating that VWS is preventing a solid CDO from forming, hence the weak returns in the southern eyewall. Teddy will probably peak on the order of 130–5 knots and 935–8 mb, very similar to Laura, which also dealt with some westerly shear. Nevertheless, this will still bolster seasonal ACE.

[abajan]

Not from what I've seen in the models thread - it seems like the GFS has been trending towards to Euro which had a western solution near the US canada border. I'm not an expert on these things by any means, but that seems like reason for increased concern IMO

Oh, who cares about the 7 day range. GIGO at that range. I am talking about the 4 days Bermuda impacts, which are looking less and less every run as the models trend east.

Teddy is only 5 days away from a potential US/Canada impact, sir.

True, but consider plasticup's location. Maybe under normal circumstances they wouldn't have said that. Their focus is, understandably, on Bermuda.

[ElectricStorm]

https://twitter.com/Wx_Geek/status/1306721895451176960
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1306722244362723334
https://twitter.com/EdgeStorms/status/1306720145763598337
Personally, I doubt that Teddy will reach Cat-5 status. Note that the expanding CDO is hitting a wall of shear to its west. Note the sharp demarcation between cold convective tops and precipitation-free areas. The southern quadrant is struggling to generate strong echoes on radar, indicating that VWS is preventing a solid CDO from forming, hence the weak returns in the southern eyewall. Teddy will probably peak on the order of 130–5 knots and 935–8 mb, very similar to Laura, which also dealt with some westerly shear. Nevertheless, this will still bolster seasonal ACE.

I'm pretty sure the shear has been the same the entire time. Thats why it struggled a bit yesterday