ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

Overall circulation +/- 18

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

[GCANE]

Almost 50 mm/hr rain rate recorded by Recon.
Indicates strong latent heating of the core.
Also seeing a deepening of the cold pool at 550mb.
Very good indication that this will strengthen.

[Iceresistance]

Recon is getting a NW wind inside the deep convection, there is a center reformation with Zeta, Zeta is expected to improve over the next several hours

[aspen]

999.1 mbar extrapolated! This is still strengthening, and at a respectable pace too.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Recon suggests a pressure of 999mb, 40 knot winds on the surface.

[GCANE]

Overall circulation +/- 18

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

Convection is firing right over the cold pool.
If the cold pool continues to deepen, this could be a nasty TC.

[xironman]

I don't see it going over the Yucatan, too south and east.

[underthwx]

Almost 50 mm/hr rain rate recorded by Recon.
Indicates strong latent heating of the core.
Also seeing a deepening of the cold pool at 550mb.
Very good indication that this will strengthen.


https://i.imgur.com/T6SMOif.gif

That is very interesting...

[ElectricStorm]

Overall circulation +/- 18

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

Convection is firing right over the cold pool.
If the cold pool continues to deepen, this could be a nasty TC.

Yeah I have a feeling we may be looking at our 5th major of the season in a few days...

[Nimbus]

Just got back..

looks like convection is trying to build up the east side.

Did that for the 5PM forecast yesterday, will the convection persist or drift south again?

[GCANE]

Top of the scale rain rate.
I have a bad feeling this is going to be a nasty one alright.

[Iceresistance]

The newly reformed center is already below 1000 MB flight level

[GCANE]

I don't see it going over the Yucatan, too south and east.

Going thru the Yucatan Channel will definitely be a big-time game changer.

[Iceresistance]

999.1 mbar extrapolated! This is still strengthening, and at a respectable pace too.

Another reading just showed 998.5 MB Extrapolated.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

45 knots at 5 PM

5:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 25
Location: 17.7°N 83.4°W
Moving: Nearly stationary
Min pressure: 999 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

[Iceresistance]

Almost 50 mm/hr rain rate recorded by Recon.
Indicates strong latent heating of the core.
Also seeing a deepening of the cold pool at 550mb.
Very good indication that this will strengthen.


https://i.imgur.com/T6SMOif.gif

This does not look good, Delta's cold water trail is nonexistant because of how small it was with a pinhole eye.

[Nimbus]

I don't see it going over the Yucatan, too south and east.

Going thru the Yucatan Channel will definitely be a big-time game changer.

Doesn't that mean it will get there a little later with a steering flow more from the SE?
"stationary" wait for the 18Z output.

[Iceresistance]

45 knots at 5 PM

5:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 25
Location: 17.7°N 83.4°W
Moving: Nearly stationary
Min pressure: 999 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

They did not say that there was a center reformation, the advisory came out just before the reformation was discovered

[ElectricStorm]

Almost 50 mm/hr rain rate recorded by Recon.
Indicates strong latent heating of the core.
Also seeing a deepening of the cold pool at 550mb.
Very good indication that this will strengthen.


https://i.imgur.com/T6SMOif.gif

This does not look good, Delta's cold water trail is nonexistant because of how small it was with a pinhole eye.

Also because of the insane OHC... Anything that formes a solid core can really explode down there like Gamma and Delta

[TallyTracker]

Definitely keeping an eye out for a harder right hook in the Gulf. Stronger definitely appears to be indicative of more to the right in this case. I’m just flabbergasted that we’re talking about another Northern Gulf hurricane threat this late in the season...it’s ridiculous!