ATL: ETA - Models

[Keldeo1997]

18z HWRF has extremely rapid intensification...in fact, a little too much RI. That’s a Cat 4 by late tomorrow morning. That’s not happening.

The way IR looking right now that may not be to crazy. HWRF Initialized pretty good showing the open eyewall to the South

[MetroMike]

18Z GFS long-range with a new solution:

https://i.postimg.cc/59wsVxYy/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh150-288.gif

We thought it would be shunted off to the East, but no its coming back to Cuba?

[Nimbus]

18Z HMON dives Eta into Honduras but lots of circulation creating shear lift in the Bay of Honduras so even if the original center dissipates there could still be low surface pressure spreading over the gulf where a new center could form in 4 or 5 days. 18Z HWRF portrayed a center jump like that last night at the 93 hour mark when the old center was weakening inland near the border of Nicaragua.

[supercane4867]

HWRF clearly wants to replicate a Typhoon Goni in the Caribbean.

[LarryWx]

HWRF clearly wants to replicate a Typhoon Goni in the Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/hpNCUu4.png

And note that despite it being every bit as strong as the 12Z (930s), it is much further SW than that outlier 12Z run and near the 6Z and 0Z.

[tolakram]

Trend is still to hug the coast. Looks like steering completely breaks down with Eta drifting off the cost before moving west/nw.

[SFLcane]

18z GEFS still quite busy near the Florida peninsula.

[tolakram]

HWRF does move it well inland again.

[aspen]

Deepest run yet.

18z HWRF wants a pinhole eye by the time recon arrives at 06z tomorrow morning. Since the pink <-80C CDO has formed and microwave is starting to show the eyewall close off into a pinhole, perhaps this is possible.

[LarryWx]

18Z HWRF is absolutely terrible for Honduras and N Nicaragua.

[Spacecoast]

Big pile of Spaghetti for Sunday night.
All 32 members of GEFS + All 51 Members of ECMF + All deterministic + All Consensus guidance + NHC Official
(white is consensus (of Consensus))
Choose your favorite strand. My only observation is that Eta may find it difficult to rise above 28N

[supercane4867]

18z GFS fantasy land lol

[Nimbus]

18Z HWRF run makes the center jump at 90 hours this run.
So maybe something to track after the CA crisis if the NHC gets on board later.

[CyclonicFury]

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 75% is 6.9 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 56% is 12.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 51% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)

[gatorcane]

Saved HWRF loop:

[Shell Mound]

Saved HWRF loop:

https://i.postimg.cc/VvwfVj5z/hwrf-sat-IR-29-L-fh0-114.gif

Given the current coordinates and forward speed, plus the really strong ridging to the northwest, I’m feeling numb for Central America right now.

[supercane4867]

HWRF end of the run shows re-intensification from TD to TS

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS fantasy land lol

https://i.imgur.com/19a7Rl8.gif

Looks like a certain pre-Zeta run from the GFS-P.

[RL3AO]

Some of these model runs are a good reminder that some crazy stuff can happen with TC movement in November.

[crimi481]

Well the models narrowed it down to somewhere between Veracruz and the Bahamas. lol. stay tuned