ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

MAAAAASSIVE!!!

[tolakram]

[cainjamin]

What an absolutely horrifying increase in strength. Wishing the best for all the persons in the way of Laura.

[abajan]

"Unsurvivable storm surge" is being stressed in the last several advisories. The NHC really wants to hammer that point home. I hope those in harm's way are taking heed.

[Michele B]

MAAAAASSIVE!!!

https://i.imgur.com/7Vvv46x.png

Any idea how far out hurricane force winds extend?

[Do_For_Love]

A horror movie, but it's real life

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1298695625341427712

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Code: Select all

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 160 gpm - 10 gpm (525 geo. feet - 33 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 190° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 125 knots (144 mph)


[Highteeld]

Pressure around 948 mb. Subsidence more and more clear with each new dropsonde

[Blinhart]

Probably have winds up to 150-155 MPH at the next advisory if not the dreaded 160. I think max intensity is 175 MPH and pressure of 912.

[Ken711]

The chance of Laura NOT becoming a CAT5 is rapidly decreasing.

https://i.imgur.com/4vo2QJS.gif

Is it possible there's time for an eye wall replacement which could weaken Laura?

[Janie2006]

All of these years and watching a hurricane really get itself organized never ceases to amaze me. “Stadium Effect” taking form now. Looks like HWORF nailed the intensity days ago.

[GCANE]

MAAAAASSIVE!!!

https://i.imgur.com/7Vvv46x.png

Any idea how far out hurricane force winds extend?

80 nm on the NE quad

[wkwally]

Yikes!

That would put in Houston in play again

IT would take a huge miss to get Houston into anything more than a stormy day, but it wouldnt take a huge miss to get Beaumont into the right side of the storm. The region around and south of Beaumont (including Port Arthur) is more populous with (I think) more oil infrastructure than the area around Lake Charles, and Lake Charles of course would still be on the right side of the storm - its not like they wouldnt get any major impacts.

Maybe so but the fact remains that Houston is only 75 miles from the projected landfall, with the size of this storm that is really not much and not what I would call a huge miss.

[cfisher]

This is a large eye that will be difficult to disrupt through any shear near the coast.

[Beef Stew]

Those winds are mixing down fast.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Jeff Piotrowski reported on his stream that some storm chasers are already trapped by surge along Louisiana highway 82 on the coast. I just hope they are safe.

82 runs west from Holly Beach to Sabine Pass. That is perhaps the WORST place to be.

I get chasing storms but on that road with highest predicted surge of all time. Its only like 2 ft above the marsh tide level and no where to get high ground for many miles. Most all of it is the worst place to be right now and will only get worse.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

2:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 27.4°N 92.6°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 948 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph

[tolakram]

The chance of Laura NOT becoming a CAT5 is rapidly decreasing.

https://i.imgur.com/4vo2QJS.gif

Is it possible there's time for an eye wall replacement which could weaken Laura?

They cannot be predicted so the answer to this question is always yes. Unfortunately an ERC expands the windfield which is not a good thing. That's what made Katrina so deadly.

[Highteeld]

The temperature anomaly in the eye is getting much more intense