ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronjon]

It will be interesting to see the 12z early models to see if they shift with the further south fix at 12z by the NHC.

Would a shift further south shift the track further west like the euro?

Maybe, maybe not. If it is stronger because of it then maybe it will move north. If it's still weak then will go west.

I think we need to see where the LLC and MLC align once the system is offshore in the GOM. TD19 still struggling a little due to northerly shear, land interaction, and a pesky little upper level low to its west. I still anticipate it to pull itself together later on today somewhere offshore of Ft Myers.

[gatorcane]

The sun is out in Coconut Creek and I said to myself last night this is a Keys storm.

Much different story out here on the beach. Wind gusts to tropical storm force and sideways rain. This is the most action we have had all season.

[Dean4Storms]

If it struggles to deepen much more over the next 24hours as the GFS and ECM depict it would get steered more WNW but I would expect it to turn more NW or even NNW out 24hours (HWRF and HMON) if it's already a borderline hurricane putting the squeeze on the SE Ridge as its being suppressed by the 500mb Trough lifting out but late turn back more WNW.

[3090]

If it struggles to deepen much more over the next 24hours as the GFS and ECM depict it would get steered more WNW but I would expect it to turn more NW or even NNW out 24hours (HWRF and HMON) if it's already a borderline hurricane putting the squeeze on the SE Ridge.

Not sure about all of that, according to the NHC. Many folks go against the grain of the NHC, recently as such with Marco and Laura. I would say the NHC was pretty much spot on.

[Jr0d]

The center seems to be a bit south of the NHC position.

[Dean4Storms]

If it struggles to deepen much more over the next 24hours as the GFS and ECM depict it would get steered more WNW but I would expect it to turn more NW or even NNW out 24hours (HWRF and HMON) if it's already a borderline hurricane putting the squeeze on the SE Ridge.

Not sure about all of that, according to the NHC. Many folks go against the grain of the NHC, recently as such with Marco and Laura. I would say the NHC was pretty much spot on.

A deepening storm near hurricane strength will not continue WNW if the ridge steering it is weakening to it's NE or ENE.

If you notice with the NHC forecast track they have a cone clear over to Ft. Walton Bch. for just that scenario.

[robbielyn]

Bernie Rayno anticipates hurricane most like SE LA but could be as far east as Pensacola. His concern is on monday night after the high is east and the trough lifts out it could just sit there and squeeze out copious amounts of rain NE quad area like a foot or more due to there being no steering component on the 500mb map. he said we might hv to wait until another trough pushes it out.

[Evil Jeremy]

I don't know how much stock to place in The Weather Channel's "future radar" (which I'm guessing functions similar to the HRRR?) but it shows SE FL getting absolutely walloped with bands on the back-end of 19 as today goes on. It poured around midnight-1am here in Plantation, and has been raining steadily, but not heavily, so far this morning. Sun ain't out here in Plantation, not at all.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/CptProtato/status/1304773031148032002

[PTrackerLA]

Not liking these trends, I expect Hurricane watches to be going up soon for the northern Gulf coast. A track into SE LA would likely mean at least a cat 1. With the slow movement could be similar impacts to Isaac 2012.

[NDG]

At this rate if it continues it may get fairly close just north of Key West, lol.
What is up this year with developing systems and a further southern track in our part of the Atlantic basin, lol.

[robbielyn]

At this rate if it continues it may get fairly close just north of Key West, lol.
What is up this year with developing systems and a further southern track in our part of the Atlantic basin, lol.

https://i.imgur.com/LePvuWi.gif

big highs always seem to be in the right place at the right time lol

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like on radar the MLC is beginning to track more NW. A meeting of minds if you will.

[NDG]

Not a good trend for SE LA & MS.

 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1304774281721794560

[us89]

At this rate if it continues it may get fairly close just north of Key West, lol.
What is up this year with developing systems and a further southern track in our part of the Atlantic basin, lol.

https://i.imgur.com/LePvuWi.gif

That is a fascinating radar loop. Love how the LLC decides to blast SW off the peninsula in the last hour.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like soon to be Sally is really beginning to wrap and tighten convection around the MLC, which to me appears to become the dominant vort north/northeast of Key West currently. This is about to really get going later today.

[GCANE]

Looks like latest GFS has a better handle on the LL vorts.
Still not good on the UL (200mb).
Currently has it whacking NOLA.

[gatorcane]

I am seeing some banding on the east side. Plus as some as mentioned, it looks like it could end up well south of the track giving it more time over water. I am thinking hurricane now into the northern Gulf coast. Maybe we even push a CAT 2 here. I can’t see how the NHC keeps this a TS and believe they will bump to hurricane.

[NDG]

TD 19 starting to look like a TS Sally to me, with deep convection firing near its LLC now.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1304781115274801152