ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

[northjaxpro]

I am really getting concerned about the potential loss of life near the landfall. I'm hearing from some local sources that more people have decided to ride this storm out despite mandatory evacuations in place. I hope that this is wrong because a lot of those people will not survive the night. Even NWS is saying its unsurvible SMDH

My God, I hope that this is not the case of people staying on to ride out this monster.

[wkwally]

Muggy and light winds here in Lake Charles. Two bands came through.

This parking garage on Lakeshore and Broad is one of two vehicle structures that can provide vehicle safety. There is a private garage next door that can also be used.

Tell any chasers they stopped letting them in. But I made friends with security and they will leave gate open this evening. Told them the chasers are good people.

Expecting 10-15 ft of water at this garage. It is 60 ft tall.

Many people chose not to leave all around here. This is going to be deadly as we know.

Chuck

Unbeliable that some would choose to ride this monster out as it is cat 1 hurricane. my understanding is the storm surge is going to be carzy there.

[karenfromheaven]

Sometimes that works against the storm too, when it strengthens quickly and then weakens in the day or so leading to landfall. It's the storms that blow up right before landfall that scare me; see Michael for one example.

Remember those guys in the pickup truck in Mexico Beach? When the surge hit the truck started floating away live on the stream until it got to a house on stilts. They hopped out and broke in to the house and survived.

I dont think I ever heard or saw that vid. Do you have a link?

Brett Adair as the surge comes in:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3Nvx2mNqFs
When his truck is overwhelmed:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XA5OQHWx1Y

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Beastly storm. Hard to believe it was a struggling TD east of the Antilles a few days ago.

Honestly, even if that predicted westerly-southwesterly shear were to start impinging on the storm right now it really would not make much of a difference - the structure and size of Laura is probably too much to really overwhelm at the moment. You would hope for an EWRC to knock this thing down a few pegs but I don't really think it has the time to undergo one, IMO.

[eastcoastFL]

Muggy and light winds here in Lake Charles. Two bands came through.

This parking garage on Lakeshore and Broad is one of two vehicle structures that can provide vehicle safety. There is a private garage next door that can also be used.

Tell any chasers they stopped letting them in. But I made friends with security and they will leave gate open this evening. Told them the chasers are good people.

Expecting 10-15 ft of water at this garage. It is 60 ft tall.

Many people chose not to leave all around here. This is going to be deadly as we know.

Chuck

Anyone give a reason why they chose to ride it out? It’s just foolish. I hope they don’t have children

[Snowman67]

Hou/Galv Area Forecast Discussion awfully late coming out this afternoon....

I noticed that too. Nothing nefarious, I am sure. I know they are in constant contact with NHC folks...

Oh, for sure. I'm sure they're trying to digest all of the data coming in...

[TallyTracker]

Power may be out for a month or two after this. Anyone who stays better be largely self sufficient for a long time.

[weunice]

I am really getting concerned about the potential loss of life near the landfall. I'm hearing from some local sources that more people have decided to ride this storm out despite mandatory evacuations in place. I hope that this is wrong because a lot of those people will not survive the night. Even NWS is saying its unsurvible SMDH

I am too. I have a college friend from Lake Charles. Her family left but she knows a family who is staying. I am afraid we will certainly have some loss of life from this storm.

[syfr]

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search ... E&dist=250


Here's an interesting link to current buoy readings from the area

[us89]

There is a lot of lightning with the eastern eyewall.

At this point I'm struggling to see how this doesn't reach category 5.

[cfisher]

SW LA will have to completely rebuild.

[ronjon]

In Laura it appears we have another Michael that will tear up the NW gulf coat. A powerful CAT 4 storm strengthening all the way up to landfall. NHC at their 5 pm advisory now makes Laura a CAT 5 storm at landfall with 150 mph winds near 2 am this morning. I see no reason to doubt their predictions. My prayers to all in the path and am hoping those that decided to stay behind are above the surge level in sturdy dwellings. I'm fearful many will decide to ride out the storm with the COVID pandemic. This storm appears to be another Michael or Katrina. In addition to the coastal surge impact, their will be hurricane force wind gusts well inland probably leading to massive power outages across a wide swath of east Tx/West La and even southern Arkansas.

[Cunxi Huang]

[Steejo91]

Chasing in Cameron is a death sentence.

There is nowhere to hide out here when chasing except where I am at right now.

If you are chasing and read this please come now to Lakeshore and Broad in Lake Charles. Now. You WILL have exit paths blocked by surge very soon.

Chuck

Already here at a garage nearby! Hope you fair well chaser dude!

[chaser1]

"There will never be another Haiyan"

Gulf: hold my SSTs

Let’s not post these kind of unsubstantiated statements. Laura will not get that strong but it doesn’t take a Haiyan to do real damage. A high end Cat 4 is more than enough.

Good post. Kind of like someone pronouncing that being hit by a bus moving 200 mph, wouldn't be as bad as being hit by an asteroid Probably best to avoid either.

[Nimbus]

Hou/Galv Area Forecast Discussion awfully late coming out this afternoon....

I noticed that too. Nothing nefarious, I am sure. I know they are in constant contact with NHC folks...

Probably lots of extra storm surge alerts to add to the forecast.
Are the Home depots and Lowes stores still open.
They are going to run out of PL S30 pretty fast if the wind forecast isn't right..

[KWT]

Amazing presentation at the moment, though I do note that the southern quadrant is just starting to thin a little in terms of the larger precip shield and eyewall. Probably a hint of the shear, especially as some mets have said the southern side is the area that will be first impacte as it becomes a little more lopsided again (we saw that with Katrina and Rita as well in 05).

Probably a fair chance recon finds close to cat-5 when its next in that NE quadrant...

[Chemmers]

I think 170 to 180 mph on landfall

[Buck]

In Laura it appears we have another Michael that will tear up the NW gulf coat. A powerful CAT 4 storm strengthening all the way up to landfall. NHC at their 5 pm advisory now makes Laura a CAT 5 storm at landfall with 150 mph winds near 2 am this morning. I see no reason to doubt their predictions. My prayers to all in the path and am hoping those that decided to stay behind are above the surge level in sturdy dwellings. I'm fearful many will decide to ride out the storm with the COVID pandemic. This storm appears to be another Michael or Katrina. In addition to the coastal surge impact, their will be hurricane force wind gusts well inland probably leading to massive power outages across a wide swath of east Tx/West La and even southern Arkansas.

They don’t actually explicitly call for a Cat 5 in the advisory.