ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

Currently overcast in Key West with west winds around 12 knots on land, 18 knots out on the open water at Sand Key. There is a small line of storms north of us. All the heavy stuff is to our east and should be here this afternoon.

Given the current track of the LLC, we may be fairly close to the center tonight. Even if it becomes a storm, our impact is fairly minimal. Biggest concern will be street flooding and possibly an isolated tornado.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Well we survived a very tense overnight period, damage assessment complete... It made a good run at TS status, convective envelope seems to be stationary for now...land interaction may have put the brakes on forward progress. Lets hope it behaves in the gulf, Laura was enough for our friends to the NW.

This system should serve as a warning for the rest of the season, I know the cape verde systems get the headlines but beware, west of 60 is far more dangerous for the united states.

Agree I always say this. Isaias was only a TS until it wasn't. Still cleaning up debris and wreckage... Sure looks certain that the Gulf Coast will be dealing with a strengthening storm. and heading for Lake Borgne. If HWRF holds true, which it has done well this year, this is bad news and folks need to be aware

[us89]

HWRF and HMON are both on board with the idea of making this a 970 mb or deeper hurricane as it approaches the gulf coast.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I had bad vibes about this cyclone a couple of days ago and how the globals were badly handling the evolution of this system. It unfortunately is going to have considerably more time with the more southerly track over very warm ssts over the Southeast GOM in the next couple of days and with the generally low shear.

I think Sally has the potential to become a major TC if she continues to have very slow movement toward the North Central Gulf Coast. I just hope everyone along the coasts of LA MS, AL and the Florida Panhandle are taking all the necessary preps NOW!
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[NDG]

12z Tampa sounding, there's the northerly shear pushing against TD 19 from H40 on up.

[MississippiWx]

Seems to be a reorganization of the center to the south in the main convection. Not a good trend. This thing just has the look of something that wants to be bad.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans/status/1304773828313100293

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1304787019130908673

[Jr0d]

A lot of northerly shear in Key West too.

[NDG]

Fowey Rock buoy now reporting sustained TS force winds gusting to 47 mph but is at 144 feet above surface.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... m=E&tz=STN

[NDG]

A lot of northerly shear in Key West too.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/upper/eyw.gif

That's from the mid level circulation which is tilted south of where the LLC was at 12z.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, some northerly shear currently, but a big anticyclone awaits Sally as soon as she pulls away from the Keys later tonight and moves out into the Southeast GOM. A virtually ideal environment awaits Sally, which really is worrisome for people on the North Central Gulf Coast.

[Aric Dunn]

Oh look its farther to the SW.. who would have thought.. lol

[drezee]

A lot of northerly shear in Key West too.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/upper/eyw.gif

That is not shear. Completely different sounding than NDG. That is the TD19 wind field. You would need to take an average sounding from tropicaltidbits.com.

[Jr0d]

A lot of northerly shear in Key West too.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/upper/eyw.gif

That's from the mid level circulation which is tilted south of where the LLC was at 12z.

https://i.imgur.com/I1rcp1D.png

I suppose I should have looked at that too.

It should really start deteorating soon here in Key West. Looking out the window there is some heavy rain just north of me.

[SootyTern]

The sun is out in Coconut Creek and I said to myself last night this is a Keys storm.

Much different story out here on the beach. Wind gusts to tropical storm force and sideways rain. This is the most action we have had all season.

Just got back from Convoy Point due east of Homestead; had to go out and get a taste. Definitely feels tropical out with solid 20's for wind, thick cloud layers and now the big batch of rain is starting to come ashore

[tigerz3030]

So as we see it possibly stacking, does that mean more poleward movement as Levi Cowan stated yesterday.

I remember Michael a couple of years ago was eh to start with and then boom.

[toad strangler]

Great night sleep, was awakened by heavy showers twice. 19 cure looks like a TS to me and much further S than forecast track. Almost missed S FL

[us89]

I don’t know whether the Weatherstem station on Virginia Key is elevated or standard 10-m height, but it is reporting sustained winds of 45 mph with the band moving through now.

[Aric Dunn]

This should be upgraded. plenty of data for a TS>

and now Fowey rocks reporting sustained 41 mph winds

09 12 9:00 am SE 35 38 - - - - 29.75 +0.02 81.1 84.4 - - - -
09 12 8:00 am SSE 30 34 - - - - 29.75 +0.02 79.5 84.4 - - - -