ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

And I'm probably going to lose a lot of my crabbing grounds.

You might have all new crabbing grounds.

north of I-10

...or 40 or so miles inland

[hipshot]

Hou/Galv Area Forecast Discussion awfully late coming out this afternoon....

I noticed that too. Nothing nefarious, I am sure. I know they are in constant contact with NHC folks...

Probably lots of extra storm surge alerts to add to the forecast.
Are the Home depots and Lowes stores still open.
They are going to run out of PL S30 pretty fast if the wind forecast isn't right..

What the heck is PL S30?

[aperson]

2020AUG26 215020 6.5 929.1 127.0 6.4 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 20.47 -68.06 EYE 30 IR 9.9 28.06 92.87 ARCHER GOES16 38.1

Closing in on that 90C delta. Feels a lot like Michael with these dvorak returns.

[supercane4867]

It's really ramping up into sunset.

[Kingarabian]

No clear EWRC shown on radar. Btw Laura's NE quadrant looks VIOLENT, can't wait the next recon pass.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgYVjB7U0Ac8lN3?format=png&name=large

Doesn’t matter how far a storm might be from an EWRC, there will still be myriad posts saying that one is about to begin at any given time.

Eyewall presentations in systems undergoing RI are pretty dynamic. There's also a case of seamless ERC's that do not do as much as damage compared to traditional ERC's.

[Raebie]

I'm in a hurricane-related Facebook group where hundreds of people in Beaumont, Port Arthur, Lake Charles and Orange are planning to ride out the hurricane. I managed to convince one lady to evacuate (which I'm still feeling pretty good about), but it's incredible how many people are planning to stay and boasting about it.

ji

I read what a poster stated a short time ago that many people may have decided to ride out the storm due to COVID-19 and not going to shelters in.place. It would be an enomorous catastrophe if people decided to do this instead of evacuating. This monster stitm is just something you don't ride out if you value life!!

It highlights how dreadful people are at risk assessment.

No kidding. Odds of surviving Covid are like 95% plus. Laura? Let's just say a lot less.

[Kazmit]

Too bad the plane out right now looks like a upper level mission. I thought it was a low level one.

[Highteeld]

[jdjaguar]

ji

I read what a poster stated a short time ago that many people may have decided to ride out the storm due to COVID-19 and not going to shelters in.place. It would be an enomorous catastrophe if people decided to do this instead of evacuating. This monster stitm is just something you don't ride out if you value life!!

It highlights how dreadful people are at risk assessment.

No kidding. Odds of surviving Covid are like 95% plus. Laura? Let's just say a lot less.

99.73% actually.

[cfisher]

There's probably enough satellite and radar velocity data to go ahead and upgrade to a Cat 5. NHC will probably wait for recon though

[Highteeld]

Getting into rare territory in terms of eye temperature

2020AUG26 222020 6.5 929.0 127.0 6.4 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 20.85 -68.99 EYE 30 IR 9.9 28.13 92.89 ARCHER GOES16 38.2

[ConvergenceZone]

I really miss Jim Cantore doing live reports. I’ve seen like 10 other reporters out there. They keep saying Jim is out there, but I have yet to see him, so I’m starting to doubt it.

[Cumulonimbus_Ca]

Hi, I hope this doesn't clutter the board. Mods please delete if I'm in the wrong here.

I make an Android app that uses the barometer in some phones to record surface pressures (NOT MSLP, raw pressure from the sensor) and I study severe thunderstorm initiation as well as landfalling hurricanes. The app is https://play.google.com/store/apps/deta ... er.android and if you want to contribute 15-minute interval surface pressure data, you can download and tap the Gear icon (settings) then Sensors to enable barometric pressure reporting.

I made a crappy animation of the data from Florida when Dorian approached: https://www.allclearweather.com/hurricane-dorian

I will make visualizations of the storm center for Laura when all this is over. If you download and report data please STAY SAFE FIRST.

I open source the code for sensor access in case other android devs want to contribute. https://github.com/JacobSheehy/AllClearSensorLibrary

Thanks!

[HurricaneEnzo]

I know this is well above surface levels but these numbers have been on the increase last 45 minutes or so. Might be stronger winds working down to surface now.

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[Beef Stew]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1298752877876449280




We should know soon how intense she is.

[supercane4867]

We should get the first center fix by the NOAA mission within the next 40 minutes.

[Nimbus]

I noticed that too. Nothing nefarious, I am sure. I know they are in constant contact with NHC folks...

Probably lots of extra storm surge alerts to add to the forecast.
Are the Home depots and Lowes stores still open.
They are going to run out of PL S30 pretty fast if the wind forecast isn't right..

What the heck is PL S30?

Roofing sealant for resealing aluminum roof vents regluing shingles.
My roof was making a noise like a freight train from the winds the night of the storm and the seal strips on half the shingles broke so I spent a day regluing them. Neighbors were replacing their roofs after Irma..

[Kazmit]

There's probably enough satellite and radar velocity data to go ahead and upgrade to a Cat 5. NHC will probably wait for recon though

It would have to be a lot more clear to upgrade to cat 5 based on satellite alone. NHC is especially conservative with the 4/5 boundary.

[Highteeld]

What a hoss

[cfisher]

I know this is well above surface levels but these numbers have been on the increase last 45 minutes or so. Might be stronger winds working down to surface now.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200826/7a184aa98cde9dd81d2737f5449c7e67.jpg

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That's wayyy up in the atmosphere, typically max winds occur at a much lower altitude.