ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[shiny-pebble]

It is crazy to think that when I woke up this morning, it was a CAT 2. Insane intensification

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[tarheelprogrammer]

This should be upgraded to a category 5 with that data set. Hard to deny this is the best it has looked in its life. Sad thing is, it is close to landfall while doing this. Praying for the people down there.

[Hammy]

Well, Laura has officially passed my prediction for a peak of 939 mbars.

Mine was 945-55, passed that awhile ago. A lot of posts (including mine) regarding intensity from a few days ago aren't going to age well.

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1298758431587868672

[rigbyrigz]

Per Levi C minutes ago: recon in NE eyewall measured surface winds 150-155 MPH (nears Cat 5)

recon flight from HRD-AOML-NOAA
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/

[tropicwatch]

Honestly, it's insane how much this feels like Hurricane Michael again.

Michaels pressure fell to 919mb. Have a little way to go but could get close in windage.

[cfisher]

Latest microwave imagery showing strongest winds in the N and E eyewall

[Kingarabian]

I'm thinking it could bottom out somewhere in 920s then. The recon pressure readings have been playing catch up with Dvorak estimates for the past 18 hours or so and ADT currently shows 929mb.

[TallahasseeMan]

Worth noting considering people love to talk about the HWRF always coming in too strong: The HWRF actually underestimated strengthening at both 12z (Weakening on approach) and 18z (never getting it below 940mb.)

[supercane4867]

[Ryxn]

[Deleted]

[chaser1]

Another thing to remember about the location of this landfall and surge area, there is going to be a lot of nasty wildlife in those flood waters.

Well, I've seen cars on roofs. You suggesting that we might actually see our first post-hurricane with an alligator on someone's roof??

[cheezyWXguy]

This may be it guys. The eye is contracting, and the CDO is cooling in a fashion similar to Michael just before it made landfall. We could be seeing the push it needs to get above the threshold.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Honestly, it's insane how much this feels like Hurricane Michael again.

Michaels pressure fell to 919mb. Have a little way to go but could get close in windage.

Well, yeah. But watching it bomb out feels like Michael again.

[tolakram]

[wkwally]

The emergancy alert on the TV just went off here in Humble and from what it looks like on Channel 11 my area is now under a Hurricane warning. However when I looked at the NWS map it is showing that we are still under a TS warning. Can anyone verify?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Unreal.

[HurricaneEdouard]

This should be upgraded to a category 5 with that data set. Hard to deny this is the best it has looked in its life. Sad thing is, it is close to landfall while doing this. Praying for the people down there.

140 knots at flight-level correlates to 126 knots at the surface. Blended with the 133 knot SFMR reading, the intensity looks to be 130 knots (possibly 135 knots if dropsonde supports SFMR), but not 140 knots. Not a Category 5 (yet, anyway), but getting close.

[Kingarabian]

Well, Laura has officially passed my prediction for a peak of 939 mbars.

Mine was 945-55, passed that awhile ago. A lot of posts (including mine) regarding intensity from a few days ago aren't going to age well.

I went kinda dumb with an 895mb pressure reading in chaser1's thread as I underestimated the pressure gradient and the environmental pressure. My personal forecast from the beginning was upper end cat.4 or low end cat.5. Just had the gut feeling.

[Ryxn]

Cool tidbit is that if, or at this rate, when Laura attains Category 5 status, it will be the first Category 5 hurricane in August ANYWHERE in the basin since 2007's Hurricane Dean THIRTEEN YEARS AGO Surprisingly long streak given late August's reputation. Granted Dorian got REALLY close but reached Category 5 on September 1.