ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

NHC still seems very certain this will continue diving south instead of a more eastward motion skirting the coast.

I'm not sure that SE @ 3 mph is actually "diving" south.

I meant in terms of how far inland it would go. It would have a couple of days over land if it followed the NHC track.

[SoupBone]

This is the best looking June GOM tropical storm I've seen. Better hope CA can pull this inland and substantially weaken it, or hope there's some shear or dry air as it moves towards the states.

I don't know if it will hang around, but there's a pretty decent amount of dry air in the GoM right now.

[gatorcane]

Conditions simply do not look like they will be favorable for Cristobal as it moves further north in the Gulf. Of course it could change but one has to lean towards climo and the fact there is model support for unfavorable conditions.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like center has halfway crossed the coast..

[TheStormExpert]

The Euro is likely overdoing the intensification of Cristobal in the Gulf and a sheared/lopsided TS not atypical of June is most likely like the GFS keeps insisting on. Heck, it may not even be tropical just looking at the 18z GFS run.

[TheStormExpert]

Conditions simply do not look like they will be favorable for Cristobal as it moves further north in the Gulf. Of course it could change but one has to lean towards climo and the fact there is model support for unfavorable conditions.

This is strange considering a week or so ago many were stating that the MJO would favor decreasing and more favorable wind shear levels across the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

[TheStormExpert]

This is the best looking June GOM tropical storm I've seen. Better hope CA can pull this inland and substantially weaken it, or hope there's some shear or dry air as it moves towards the states.

I don't know if it will hang around, but there's a pretty decent amount of dry air in the GoM right now.

https://i.imgur.com/pGlWLQ7.jpg

We’re probably seeing the best that Cristobal will look at this moment. Don’t get too excited about him being the best looking June TC when he gets into the middle of the Gulf of Mexico!

[Aric Dunn]

Cuidad Del Carmen appears to be in the center now.. pressure 995mb. wind 10kts radar confirming this as well. slow drift of ene again for the last 4 to 5 hours.

[TheProfessor]

Great video from Mark Sudduth and Jack Sillin. They hit a lot of great points including the chance of Cristobal hitting it's full potential in the Gulf if it can reorganize quick enough and position itself well in respect to the upper level trough.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJZm8Gc-Nzw

[Kingarabian]

Cuidad Del Carmen appears to be in the center now.. pressure 995mb. wind 10kts radar confirming this as well. slow drift of ene again for the last 4 to 5 hours.

The pattern of a south-drift followed by an e to ene drift seem to be a sign that the "looping" process is beginning.

[Aric Dunn]

Cuidad Del Carmen appears to be in the center now.. pressure 995mb. wind 10kts radar confirming this as well. slow drift of ene again for the last 4 to 5 hours.

The pattern of a south-drift followed by an e to ene drift seem to be a sign that the "looping" process is beginning.

Another one of my great drawing attempts ....

todays track in white VS Recon/best track, and the dashed is forecast track..

it has been on a larger Cyclonic loop ( which was supopsed to happen much farther west) ... but also doing smaller Trochoidal loops along the way..

assuming this larger loops completes and the present motion continues it will be well ahead of the models and NHC. and of course back over open water in the next 6 hours or so,...

[TheProfessor]

Cuidad Del Carmen appears to be in the center now.. pressure 995mb. wind 10kts radar confirming this as well. slow drift of ene again for the last 4 to 5 hours.

The pattern of a south-drift followed by an e to ene drift seem to be a sign that the "looping" process is beginning.

Another one of my great drawing attemps ....

todays track in white VS Recon/best track, and the dashed is forecast track..

it has been on a larger Cyclonic loop ( which was supopsed to happen much farther west) ... but also doing smaller Trochoidal loops along the way..

assuming this larger loops completes and the present motion continues it will be well ahead of the models and NHC. and of course back over open water in the next 6 hours or so,...

https://i.ibb.co/M6B3B40/Capture.png

There have been some model runs where the storm loops off the coast back into the water before landfalling again(Although over a much more rugged area to the west.). So it certainly isn't too far fetched that this could happen.

[Aric Dunn]

The pattern of a south-drift followed by an e to ene drift seem to be a sign that the "looping" process is beginning.

Another one of my great drawing attemps ....

todays track in white VS Recon/best track, and the dashed is forecast track..

it has been on a larger Cyclonic loop ( which was supopsed to happen much farther west) ... but also doing smaller Trochoidal loops along the way..

assuming this larger loops completes and the present motion continues it will be well ahead of the models and NHC. and of course back over open water in the next 6 hours or so,...

https://i.ibb.co/M6B3B40/Capture.png

There have been some model runs where the storm loops off the coast back into the water before landfalling again(Although over a much more rugged area to the west.). So it certainly isn't too far fetched that this could happen.

Yeah various previous runs over the last few days showed all sorts of looping. definitely happening and possible.

but the models have been multiple steps off what has been going on... one step behind so to speak.. a lot of variables at play with the trochoidal motion.

models are just having a hard time.

[cycloneye]

From the 7 PM CDT advisory:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

[weathaguyry]

Since the storm is not expected to have any westward movement in the next few days, I think that how far east Cristobal makes it now will have a very large impact on its strength and organization in the Gulf. If the system moves back out over open water within the next day or so and heads northward, it will have more time to reorganize its center and potentially become a halfway decent looking TS as it moves north through the Gulf before shear and dry air start having an effect. If the current NHC track is correct and the system gets buried over the Yucatan until Friday afternoon, we will probably be looking at a more normal looking June storm with questionable tropical characteristics and convection far removed from the center to the east. Storms that form from these Gyres are typically not very pretty and are very susceptible to slow and erratic movement, but the BOC worked its magic and allowed Cristobal to attain a pretty decent little COC before it moved inland.

[Aric Dunn]

what.. are going to watch this deepen half on land lol I mean sure why not it is 2020 afterall

[MississippiWx]

what.. are going to watch this deepen half on land lol I mean sure why not it is 2020 afterall

https://i.ibb.co/XLrLtyG/ezgif-com-optimize-11.gif

Wow. The center appears to be fully over water again with strong thunderstorms wrapping into the center.

[Tireman4]

I still think, and I know nothing..lol, all interests on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico should stay aware. Long way to go. Lots of model runs left to analyze. Have kits rrady no matter what

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

Location: 18.3°N 91.8°W
Maximum Winds: 40 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1007 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM

[NDG]

Ciudad del Carmen an hour ago had fairly light winds with a pressure of 995mb, there is no way the CoC is to the SW of them like the latest fix by the NHC showed.

METAR for: MMCE (Ciudad Del Carmen Ar, --, MX)
Text: MMCE 032347Z 09014KT 1SM -RA OVC006CB 25/24 A2940 RMK SLP953 54000 991 60015 8/3// COND VRB
Temperature: 25.0°C ( 77°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C ( 75°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.40 inches Hg ( 995.7 mb) [Sea level pressure: 995.3 mb]
Winds: from the E (90 degrees) at 16 MPH (14 knots; 7.2 m/s)
Visibility: 1.00 sm ( 1.61 km)
Ceiling: 600 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 600 feet AGL
Weather: -RA (light rain)