ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

WTF???
No Recon anymore!!!????

No threat to land.

this also means it will likely be downgraded and called open before it actually is... since we have to go off ASCAT now. which has not been doing well with this system.

just wait for the claims... "see the models got it right" lol

Way too close to Conus IMHO.
They never ran any GIV. Nearly blind on what's really going on in the UL's.
GFS showing it getting on the SW side of a TUTT and then into a highly divergent outflow.
This could also easily phase with the Rossby wave like Isaias did and ramp up.
Too much risk IMHO.
They'll scramble when they see the pink donut.

[1900hurricane]

Easy to see the shear belt on WV imagery extending from Hispaniola towards Josephine. Here's a couple of upshear soundings too, which show the upcoming envioronment.

https://i.imgur.com/j3p8KPC.gif

https://i.imgur.com/BkCo6uB.gif

https://i.imgur.com/er9aphs.gif

Exactly why this will probably continue to survive a lot longer than what people have been thinking.
all the shear is above the mid levels. 300mb and up.


or who knows maybe it will just get lost in the Bermuda triangle.

Survive is a bit of a relative term. The vorticity will be traceable for a while, and who knows, it might get a chance to build up if it can successfully cross TUTT alley. Now, will it be a closed entity is perhaps a more open question. Those westerlies south of the center on the last recon are what I would call hanging on by a thread. There wasn't even any real signature of them to the SW of the center before recon ascended, so we're just barely there right now.

[GCANE]

Ya, aha, those trofs should get it to recurve

[Aric Dunn]

Easy to see the shear belt on WV imagery extending from Hispaniola towards Josephine. Here's a couple of upshear soundings too, which show the upcoming envioronment.

https://i.imgur.com/j3p8KPC.gif

https://i.imgur.com/BkCo6uB.gif

https://i.imgur.com/er9aphs.gif

Exactly why this will probably continue to survive a lot longer than what people have been thinking.
all the shear is above the mid levels. 300mb and up.


or who knows maybe it will just get lost in the Bermuda triangle.

Survive is a bit of a relative term. The vorticity will be traceable for a while, and who knows, it might get a chance to build up if it can successfully cross TUTT alley. Now, will it be a closed entity is perhaps a more open question. Those westerlies south of the center on the last recon are what I would call hanging on by a thread. There wasn't even any real signature of them to the SW of the center before recon ascended, so we're just barely there right now.

https://i.imgur.com/65HyMMP.png

and since then on visible. the overall SW quad shows more defined W and SW inflow farther fromt he center.. looks like it will be around even longer..

[floridasun78]

trofs is their on coast line issue is how strong is trofs and have shear relax north of PR to bahamas area

[wxman57]

Weak swirl that is Josephine's center is outrunning the convection in the strong shear. It still has no future. That swirl will likely be gone by this evening.

[floridasun78]

Weak swirl that is Josephine's center is outrunning the convection in the strong shear. It still has no future. That swirl will likely be gone by this evening.

close this Discussion Josephine is dead

[gatorcane]

Weak swirl that is Josephine's center is outrunning the convection in the strong shear. It still has no future. That swirl will likely be gone by this evening.

close this Discussion Josephine is dead

Yikes that shear is strong and only increasing. She is a goner and even if she manages to survive headed into the North Atlantic graveyard on a recurve:

[CyclonicFury]

Weak swirl that is Josephine's center is outrunning the convection in the strong shear. It still has no future. That swirl will likely be gone by this evening.

close this Discussion Josephine is dead

It's still a tropical storm officially.

[floridasun78]

Weak swirl that is Josephine's center is outrunning the convection in the strong shear. It still has no future. That swirl will likely be gone by this evening.

close this Discussion Josephine is dead

It's still a tropical storm officially.

wxman57 going vacation so it dead he want vacation before peak part season come so dead

[Aric Dunn]

This will maintain as long as convection keeps building near the center. New convective burst right over the center has begun again. Shear is all above 300mb which is far less a problem then mid level shear. ( per PR soundings).

So any talk of this dying by tonight or anytime soon is sort of moot until the LLC is without convection long enough for it to weaken.

[tiger_deF]

So any talk of this dying by tonight or anytime soon is sort of moot until the LLC is without convection long enough for it to weaken.

I can't believe how fast everyone is writing off this storm. Do I think it will pose even the smallest threat to land, or become any stronger than it currently is? No, but it is still a cyclone with a decent moisture sheath tracking through 30 degree waters in mid-August, and until any storm dissipates entirely the potential for a surprise is never gone. She's a fighter, this one

[AutoPenalti]

It’s not dead until there’s 70kt shear and dry air choking it to death.

[xironman]

So any talk of this dying by tonight or anytime soon is sort of moot until the LLC is without convection long enough for it to weaken.

I can't believe how fast everyone is writing off this storm. Do I think it will pose even the smallest threat to land, or become any stronger than it currently is? No, but it is still a cyclone with a decent moisture sheath tracking through 30 degree waters in mid-August, and until any storm dissipates entirely the potential for a surprise is never gone. She's a fighter, this one

>Do I think it will pose even the smallest threat to land

Bermuda.

[hipshot]

Early popups across some of the eastern islands.
Must be some very high CAPE air.
I am expecting the rest of the islands to fire off soon including PR.
That should nail the dry slot.
We'll see how Jo reorganizes then.

https://i.imgur.com/9BoiAuU.png

That image looks like 2 eyes and a set of nostrils if you cock your head a little to the right.

[Kazmit]

So any talk of this dying by tonight or anytime soon is sort of moot until the LLC is without convection long enough for it to weaken.

I can't believe how fast everyone is writing off this storm. Do I think it will pose even the smallest threat to land, or become any stronger than it currently is? No, but it is still a cyclone with a decent moisture sheath tracking through 30 degree waters in mid-August, and until any storm dissipates entirely the potential for a surprise is never gone. She's a fighter, this one

>Do I think it will pose even the smallest threat to land

Bermuda.

It would be more of a blessing than a threat- we need rain badly.

[GCANE]

If GFS gives Jo another 24 hrs, she may have 3 new friends to play with.

[Ubuntwo]

If GFS gives Jo another 24 hrs, she may have 3 new friends to play with.

https://i.imgur.com/xW05FPN.png

https://i.imgur.com/bcGnAMe.png

https://i.imgur.com/ESdhOMY.png

A few weak, nontropical lows?

[GCANE]

There goes Hispaniola

[GCANE]

If GFS gives Jo another 24 hrs, she may have 3 new friends to play with.

https://i.imgur.com/xW05FPN.png

https://i.imgur.com/bcGnAMe.png

https://i.imgur.com/ESdhOMY.png

A few weak, nontropical lows?

That will take a good chunk out of those trofs