WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[ManilaTC]

Looks like its done with the dip. The eye is wobbling to the West and should strike Catanduanes in about 3-4 hours from now.

This monster is staring right at us in the face and will be here in 20H tops.
Its Midnight now in Manila...

Going to get some z's as it will be a long day/night tomorrow.

[ElectricStorm]

Honestly the damage will likely be similar to Haiyan which is sickening to think about. A 5-10kt (or even 0 perhaps?) Difference will not make any difference

[doomhaMwx]

Why is nobody talking about how the RSMC is not bulging from its 115kt 915mb estimate for more than 24hrs already
I would really like to see them go ≤900mb

TY 2019 (Goni)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 31 October 2020

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 31 October>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N13°55' (13.9°)
E125°40' (125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 95 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 480 km (260 NM)
SE 220 km (120 NM)

[ElectricStorm]

Why is nobody talking about how the RSMC is not bulging from its 115kt 915mb estimate for more than 24hrs already
I would really like to see them go ≤900mb

TY 2019 (Goni)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 31 October 2020

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 31 October>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N13°55' (13.9°)
E125°40' (125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 95 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 480 km (260 NM)
SE 220 km (120 NM)

Wow the JMA going with a JTWC move...

[aspen]

Why is nobody talking about how the RSMC is not bulging from its 115kt 915mb estimate for more than 24hrs already
I would really like to see them go ≤900mb

TY 2019 (Goni)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 31 October 2020

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 31 October>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N13°55' (13.9°)
E125°40' (125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 95 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 480 km (260 NM)
SE 220 km (120 NM)

I hate the way the JMA estimates storms: always 10-min sustained winds, always pressure at intervals of 5mb that are up to 30 mbar off from the best track. 10-min sustained wind estimates can give off the wrong message, like how Cat 2 Usagi ‘18 was a “severe tropical storm” using those estimates. It’s also such a disconnect between the JMA and the JTWC.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This thing's bringing more rain than I thought... No storm signals have been raised here but it's been raining for 4+ hours continuously.

[Highteeld]

Another instantaneous 8.0 manually. We'll see what ADT does.

[Shell Mound]

The latest satellite data indicate that the eye is rapidly clearing and warming just as Goni nears landfall on Catanduanes. This is going to be on the level of Haiyan.

[ElectricStorm]

The latest satellite data indicate that the eye is rapidly clearing and warming just as Goni nears landfall on Catanduanes. This is going to be on the level of Haiyan.

Yep. Eye clearing on IR... the impact will be very similar to Haiyan... Hopefully the death toll won't be...

[euro6208]

Why is nobody talking about how the RSMC is not bulging from its 115kt 915mb estimate for more than 24hrs already
I would really like to see them go ≤900mb

TY 2019 (Goni)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 31 October 2020

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 31 October>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N13°55' (13.9°)
E125°40' (125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 95 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 480 km (260 NM)
SE 220 km (120 NM)

I hate the way the JMA estimates storms: always 10-min sustained winds, always pressure at intervals of 5mb that are up to 30 mbar off from the best track. 10-min sustained wind estimates can give off the wrong message, like how Cat 2 Usagi ‘18 was a “severe tropical storm” using those estimates. It’s also such a disconnect between the JMA and the JTWC.

Tbh JMA is kind of reliable for weaker storms and 50/50 of the time they upgrade first but for stronger and stronger typhoons, they fall completely behind because of their Koba scale.

[doomhaMwx]

SATCON 174kts

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10311256
SATCON: MSLP = 903 hPa MSW = 174 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 167.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 154 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 150 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 5.2 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 902 hPa 161 knots Scene: CDO Date: OCT311540
CIMSS AMSU: 898 hPa 181 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 10311256
ATMS: 934.2 hPa 123.1 knots Date: 10310512
SSMIS: 918.0 hPa 132.0 knots Date: 10311000
CIRA ATMS: 981 hPa 70 knots Date:

[Hayabusa]

SATCON 174kts

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10311256
SATCON: MSLP = 903 hPa MSW = 174 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 167.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 154 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 150 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 5.2 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 902 hPa 161 knots Scene: CDO Date: OCT311540
CIMSS AMSU: 898 hPa 181 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 10311256
ATMS: 934.2 hPa 123.1 knots Date: 10310512
SSMIS: 918.0 hPa 132.0 knots Date: 10311000
CIRA ATMS: 981 hPa 70 knots Date:

Wow!

[euro6208]

SATCON 174kts

Omg

[1900hurricane]

Highest AMSU estimate I've ever seen, 2 kt higher than Meranti's 179 kt.

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
SUPER TYPHOON 22W
Saturday 31oct20 Time: 1256 UTC
Latitude: 14.12 Longitude: 126.33
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 16 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 898 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 181 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 10mb +/- 12kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is -28.1 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 4.74
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 3.40
RMW: 12 km
RMW Source is: IR
Environmental Pressure: 1005
Satellite: NOAA-90
ATCF data for Month: 10 Day: 31 Time (UTC): 1200

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu

[mrbagyo]

JMA is notorious for low estimates even with ground data (like Rammasun) and this

[ElectricStorm]

Highest AMSU estimate I've ever seen, 2 kt higher than Meranti's 179 kt.

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
SUPER TYPHOON 22W
Saturday 31oct20 Time: 1256 UTC
Latitude: 14.12 Longitude: 126.33
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 16 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 898 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 181 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 10mb +/- 12kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is -28.1 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 4.74
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 3.40
RMW: 12 km
RMW Source is: IR
Environmental Pressure: 1005
Satellite: NOAA-90
ATCF data for Month: 10 Day: 31 Time (UTC): 1200

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu

https://i.imgur.com/8jQ7Xb5.gif

https://i.imgur.com/yYigHSc.gif

Whoa that's insane!

[aspen]

SATCON 174kts

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10311256
SATCON: MSLP = 903 hPa MSW = 174 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 167.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 154 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 150 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 5.2 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 902 hPa 161 knots Scene: CDO Date: OCT311540
CIMSS AMSU: 898 hPa 181 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 10311256
ATMS: 934.2 hPa 123.1 knots Date: 10310512
SSMIS: 918.0 hPa 132.0 knots Date: 10311000
CIRA ATMS: 981 hPa 70 knots Date:

Yeah I think there’s plenty of evidence for a 160+ kt upgrade coming soon...

[ElectricStorm]

SATCON 174kts

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10311256
SATCON: MSLP = 903 hPa MSW = 174 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 167.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 154 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 150 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 5.2 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 902 hPa 161 knots Scene: CDO Date: OCT311540
CIMSS AMSU: 898 hPa 181 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 10311256
ATMS: 934.2 hPa 123.1 knots Date: 10310512
SSMIS: 918.0 hPa 132.0 knots Date: 10311000
CIRA ATMS: 981 hPa 70 knots Date:

Yeah I think there’s plenty of evidence for a 160+ kt upgrade coming soon...

At this point they could really even go 170kts

[Highteeld]

How awful!

[euro6208]

Goni has an even higher SATCON and AMSU than Patricia but lower ADT but equal Dvorak at this point. Wow.

Personally I would go with 180 to 190 knots!