ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[catskillfire51]

Its going from a shrimp to a donut.
I am staying up for the vortex message.
Poppin a cold one, cranking CCR.

https://i.imgur.com/pa2X8ib.png

I'm with ya, except some Cody Jinks

[supercane4867]

TXNT27 KNES 232343
TCSNTL

A. 08L (NONAME)

B. 23/2331Z

C. 26.2N

D. 91.1W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/GMI

H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT ARE 2.5. FT
IS BASED ON MET BECAUSE THE BANDING FEATURES WERE NOT CLEAR-CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

23/2236Z 26.1N 91.0W GMI


...CLARK

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1286472226359869440

[Aric Dunn]

well roughly the same pattern as the earlier recon which then left..

hopefully the stay..

[ConvergenceZone]

Fortunately this only has less than 48hrs. left over water.

I'd feel better if it were 4 hours and not 48 hours....

[wx98]

well roughly the same pattern as the earlier recon which then left..

hopefully the stay..

They turned south so it looks like another pass

[Craters]

Anti-cyclone right on top of this.
Its all there, spinning up.

https://i.imgur.com/JaIvz83.gif

Yes, GCANE, this chart plus your other recent comments about outflow are on the money. You can see the outflow developing rapidly in almost all quadrants now if you watch the visible loops. It's that upper level venting with no inhibition at the lower levels plus good mid-level RH that will get this ramping really fast tonight. RI is quite possible. Hurricane is quite possible now.

Yay, Ozonepete! I've been watching that mid-level RH for two days now, and you're the first one to mention it. I thought I was going nuts.

My guess is that was a -- if not THE -- major factor that was keeping the lid on this thing. As the dry mass of air disappeared, it seemed that the convection started popping to the west of the COC much more regularly. Now that it looks to be just about gone, let's see what happens...

[GCANE]

CAPE increasing now to 3500 just NE of the CoC.

[tolakram]

Nigthtime Microphysics (whatever that means)
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=eumetsat_nighttime_microphysics&x=1393.9659423828125&y=1382.8579406738281

[Hammy]

I am curious as to what's keeping this from strengthening given the environment. Conditions look very favorable yet the winds are still fairly light.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

I am curious as to what's keeping this from strengthening given the environment. Conditions look very favorable yet the winds are still fairly light.

It's strengthening, but because Eight is such a large system, there's going to need to be a larger pressure drop to increase winds and there's a larger lag in wind increases.

[Yellow Evan]

Keep in mind an average rate of intensification is 1/day. This is currently a T2.5 so assuming that reasonable (if not conservative given the situation) rate in two days we could expect to see a T4.5, not factoring in the fact we have Recon.

[GCANE]

355K PV has cleared out all the way to the coast.

[Yellow Evan]

I am curious as to what's keeping this from strengthening given the environment. Conditions look very favorable yet the winds are still fairly light.

Recon suggests the pressures are falling and the depression is organizing. Winds are just lagging behind.

[tailgater]

Hurricane on top and TD at bottom. Another oddity in 2020

[GCANE]

No mention from Recon on an eye.

[Blinhart]

lol

https://i.imgur.com/J8xp44V.jpg

That surely looks like an eye, definitely a very strange storm to go with a very strange year.

[tiger_deF]

I have no idea what's going on right now

[gfsperpendicular]

Look at that!

[FireRat]

Holy moly, 8 is looking impressive tonight! Just a matter of time for TS winds to catch up to that deepening 1002 mb pressure.

The outflow is amazing, and the system is very large and symmetrical, so it will be hard for it to get disrupted by anything. On the plus side, its huge size could help slowdown any crazy RI. However, with landfall looking likely on 7/25, this thing still has plenty of time to gain significant strength...heck, soon-to-be Hanna might just beat Gonzalo at becoming the first hurricane of 2020 by the looks of things.