ATL: LAURA - Models
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Nimbus wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:Nimbus wrote:Wednesday GFS and HWRF models going with the western side of the wave tracking further south into the Caribbean.
Kind of an important detail..
Are you looking at 0z? 06z just started running
South shore of Puerto Rico for GFS..
06z HWRF also favoring southern PR
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
PR doesn’t seem to bother this hurricane too much. Coming out the other side at 964mb but winds down to 70kt
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
HMON skips PR to the north then briefly brushes Hispaniola and starts to strengthen as it passes to its north
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Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
The models have this moving WNW off the bat when it’s moving due west, I have a feeling that the models will shift south of Hispaniola, hoping so because Puerto Rico and Hispaniola don’t need this
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
HWRF strengthens briefly before hitting the southern part of DR
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Hurricaneman wrote:The models have this moving WNW off the bat when it’s moving due west, I have a feeling that the models will shift south of Hispaniola, hoping so because Puerto Rico and Hispaniola don’t need this
Without a well defined center it’s kinda hard to say which way exactly it’s moving
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supercane4867
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
HMON riding the Cuban coast but staying in the water
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
HWRF going through the middle of Hispaniola. The mountains are taking a chunk out of it. Looks to survive but up next is Cuba
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Shell Mound
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
06Z HWRF is basically Georges 2.0, with a strengthening Cat-2/-3 hitting PR, weakening over land, and then re-intensifying into a major before hitting the DR.
Note: people will say it shifted south, but the 06Z/18Z runs lack the full data incorporated into the 12Z/00Z runs. 06Z actually shifted north vs. yesterday’s 18Z.
I’m still thinking a stronger system in the short term, as is currently happening, is likely to pass north of the islands. Models are not finished with their shifts.
Note: people will say it shifted south, but the 06Z/18Z runs lack the full data incorporated into the 12Z/00Z runs. 06Z actually shifted north vs. yesterday’s 18Z.
I’m still thinking a stronger system in the short term, as is currently happening, is likely to pass north of the islands. Models are not finished with their shifts.
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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
SFLcane wrote:06z Euro...Nada
I wasn't expecting much after 00z.
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
toad strangler wrote:SFLcane wrote:06z Euro...Nada
I wasn't expecting much after 00z.
Watch the convection evolution the euro for now nailing it. Doubt we see any upgrade today at least. Might go poof if trends currently continue
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Hurricaneman wrote:The models have this moving WNW off the bat when it’s moving due west, I have a feeling that the models will shift south of Hispaniola, hoping so because Puerto Rico and Hispaniola don’t need this
It’s literally pre-Isaias all over again.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
SFLcane wrote:toad strangler wrote:SFLcane wrote:06z Euro...Nada
I wasn't expecting much after 00z.
Watch the convection evolution the euro for now nailing it. Doubt we see any upgrade today at least. Might go poof if trends currently continue
I see what you mean but it’s a little soon to call it a trend. Just 2 hours ago it was firing on all cylinders.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Evil Jeremy wrote:Hurricaneman wrote:The models have this moving WNW off the bat when it’s moving due west, I have a feeling that the models will shift south of Hispaniola, hoping so because Puerto Rico and Hispaniola don’t need this
It’s literally pre-Isaias all over again.
It’s getting close to being as frustrating as Isaias as well.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Shell Mound wrote:06Z HWRF is basically Georges 2.0, with a strengthening Cat-2/-3 hitting PR, weakening over land, and then re-intensifying into a major before hitting the DR.
Note: people will say it shifted south, but the 06Z/18Z runs lack the full data incorporated into the 12Z/00Z runs. 06Z actually shifted north vs. yesterday’s 18Z.
I’m still thinking a stronger system in the short term, as is currently happening, is likely to pass north of the islands. Models are not finished with their shifts.
I was thinking this might be similar to Georges. It can be argued that Georges was near cat 5 strength before hitting the islands, it's satellite images were impressive, perfect symmetrical eye, eyewall ECT..
http://huracanado1.tripod.com/sitebuild ... res/06.gif
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Enjoy Island tour 
Last edited by SFLcane on Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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cp79
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
SFLcane wrote:12z models Lol see ya... will never amount to much if trends continue. Enjoy Island tour
https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/19/747cc753b6391bf859a26701aa0be64d-full.png
Agree. It appears it’s going to take a visit to the Graveyard of hurricanes. Only concern is if does more of a Charley/Ivan and heads south of Haiti/Cuba. That seems more plausible right now compared to hit heading north of them.
Looking better for the east coast. The GOM still needs to keep an eye on it for the south track.
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