WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[Highteeld]

The CDO appears to be more symmetrical around the eye. Perhaps shear has abated for a brief time. However, the eye remains a bit obscured by cirrus generated by the countless mesovorts around the eye. Would estimate 170-175 knots

[Shell Mound]

The latest satellite data indicate that the eye is rapidly clearing and warming just as Goni nears landfall on Catanduanes. This is going to be on the level of Haiyan.

Yep. Eye clearing on IR... the impact will be very similar to Haiyan... Hopefully the death toll won't be...

Based on convective trends, the path may just miss the Manila metropolitan area to its south, along with some of the larger centres of the Biloc Region. This might reduce the overall death toll to some degree, but even rural areas of the Philippines can be rather densely populated, given the prevalence of large, extended families, and in light of vulnerable infrastructure I would expect the death toll to be somewhat significant, as Haiyan illustrated, but the compact inner core may reduce the effects of storm surge to some extent.

[ElectricStorm]

Goni has an even higher SATCON and AMSU than Patricia but lower ADT but equal Dvorak at this point. Wow.

Personally I would go with 180 to 190 knots.

I wouldn't put this past Patricia but it's extreme no matter what. I'd go with 170kts

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1322590635933708288

[Highteeld]

Probably the best microwave image ever taken, even better than Meranti, Dorian, or Haiyan

[ElectricStorm]

If that eye is fully clears for the JTWC update, There's a chance this could be a legit 175kt storm. I don't think the JTWC would go that high since they didn't with Haiyan but 170kts is possible

[Highteeld]

Clear cut manual T 8.0. -- Eye warming, CDO more symmetrical. Pressure could be as low as 875 mb with winds up to 175 knots. Nuts

[euro6208]

Those people in Catanduanes will not know just how powerful this monster will be when it makes landfall. Sickening.

This is a historic storm they are about to face.

[mrbagyo]

pressure in Virac as of 12:00 AM is 1001.00 mb and falling

[Highteeld]

Still intensifying. Clear 8.0

[Shell Mound]

Clear cut manual T 8.0. -- Eye warming, CDO more symmetrical. Pressure could be as low as 875 mb with winds up to 175 knots. Nuts

https://i.imgur.com/9KfDXke.png

This is clearly the strongest presentation Goni has evinced in its lifespan. IR suggests that the CDO is becoming more symmetric, especially on the eastern side.

This means that shear is lessening as pronounced west-southwesterly movement begins to flatten. We are looking at a historic storm coming ashore at its apex.

[ElectricStorm]

The way it's looking right now, that eye is going to be clear by landfall... We are likely looking at the world record landfall right here

[Ed_2001]

WMG appearing and expanding in the eye. Catanduanes has a population of a quarter million. This makes me sick.

[Highteeld]

Assuming ADT measures at 1740z, here is the image, with plenty of WMG pixels in the eye. Delta should be near 102-103 degrees

[TorSkk]

Clear cut manual T 8.0. -- Eye warming, CDO more symmetrical. Pressure could be as low as 875 mb with winds up to 175 knots. Nuts

https://i.imgur.com/9KfDXke.png

I don't think there is enough banding for 8.0. Obviously 7.5, but it's really hard to get 8.0

[euro6208]

pressure in Virac as of 12:00 AM is 1001.00 mb and falling

Any obs from the east coast? Virac is on the south side of the island.

[aspen]

Assuming ADT measures at 1740z, here is the image, with plenty of WMG pixels in the eye. Delta should be near 102-103 degrees

https://i.imgur.com/Obeh8NC.png

Doesn’t seem like ADT measured that WMG spot. Maybe next update it will...we could see raws of T#8.0 before landfall.

Goni is really testing my ability to adhere to the forum’s no swearing rule.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1322588970413445120

[Highteeld]

Clear cut manual T 8.0. -- Eye warming, CDO more symmetrical. Pressure could be as low as 875 mb with winds up to 175 knots. Nuts

https://i.imgur.com/9KfDXke.png

I don't think there is enough banding for 8.0. Obviously 7.5, but it's really hard to get 8.0

Using the microwave imagery I think you could make an argument for it. We'll see what happens at 18z. I'd think they go 160-170 knots, with 170 likely in post seasonal analysis.

[Highteeld]

Eye temp still increasing