WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

1AM - Virac : 997,2 hPa

pressure in Virac as of 12:00 AM is 1001.00 mb and falling

Any obs from the east coast? Virac is on the south side of the island.

I don't know if there's any. Most of the east coast are rural with some surfing area in Puraran - several foreigners are living there - I'm not aware if they have AWS.

With that, we have to settle with data from RPUV (98446)

[Highteeld]

So powerful. And very impressive to hold cat 5 for so long

[Ed_2001]

How strong do you guys think the JTWC will peg Goni at for the 18z advisory? I think they will be conservative and set it at 160-165, but could be higher still if they reference the AMSU data.

[ElectricStorm]

How strong do you guys think the JTWC will peg Goni at for the 18z advisory? I think they will be conservative and set it at 160-165, but could be higher still if they reference the AMSU data.

I bet they'll go 160 with an upgrade to 170 post season

[ElectricStorm]

Eye is almost cleared out already

[euro6208]

Recon into this thing would be absolutely historic globally.

[mrbagyo]

 https://twitter.com/rapplerdotcom/status/1322596538057592832

[TorSkk]

PAGASA, as usual, underestimating the intensity. They have a super typhoon category they don't even use with such strong storms. Also, they haven't raised the highest warning signal

[Cunxi Huang]

JMA 18Z T8.0/8.0.

2020-10-31 18:00 UTC

- Goni (2019) -
Position: 13.74N 125.00E
CI: 8.0 | DT: 8.0
MET: 8.0 | PT: 7.5
FT: 8.0

[doomhaMwx]

PAGASA, as usual, underestimating the intensity. They have a super typhoon category they don't even use with such strong storms. Also, they haven't raised the highest warning signal

I know right?! Grrr...

[1900hurricane]

While I personally might want to go more after some of the recent data has come in, from a warning standpoint, I think 160 kt would convey the danger of the intensity plenty enough. I still like to try to put out the most accurate number possible, but that becomes very difficult at these intensities, especially since there isn't too many directly observed cases. Final intensity can be cleaned up in the post season if needed.

[Highteeld]

JMA 18Z T8.0/8.0.

2020-10-31 18:00 UTC

- Goni (2019) -
Position: 13.74N 125.00E
CI: 8.0 | DT: 8.0
MET: 8.0 | PT: 7.5
FT: 8.0

And there it is

[aspen]

JMA 18Z T8.0/8.0.

2020-10-31 18:00 UTC

- Goni (2019) -
Position: 13.74N 125.00E
CI: 8.0 | DT: 8.0
MET: 8.0 | PT: 7.5
FT: 8.0

I hope the JMA finally puts its pressure below 900 mbar.

[ElectricStorm]

JMA 18Z T8.0/8.0.

2020-10-31 18:00 UTC

- Goni (2019) -
Position: 13.74N 125.00E
CI: 8.0 | DT: 8.0
MET: 8.0 | PT: 7.5
FT: 8.0

And there it is

We'll see if JTWC follows suit... Unless Rhoads is on shift still

[TorSkk]

JMA 18Z T8.0/8.0.

2020-10-31 18:00 UTC

- Goni (2019) -
Position: 13.74N 125.00E
CI: 8.0 | DT: 8.0
MET: 8.0 | PT: 7.5
FT: 8.0

Where can I find their fixes? Also, seems like operationally this is going to be the strongest WPAC storm in a while. We will see in about half an hour.

[Hayabusa]

First raw 8.0 in ADT v9.0!

2020OCT31 174000 7.7 902.5 161.0 7.7 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 19.58 -82.97 EYE 16 IR 54.0 13.79 -125.02 ARCHER HIM-8 24.3

[xtyphooncyclonex]

PAGASA, as usual, underestimating the intensity. They have a super typhoon category they don't even use with such strong storms. Also, they haven't raised the highest warning signal

I know right?! Grrr...

PAGASA doesn't have a clear system of measuring or estimating intensity. If they use 10-min winds, they better be consistent with the Koba scale or the HKO. All they do is copy and paste and make alterations here and there. No reasoning behind their estimates too. I can't blame them... but I don't think this should continue. Also, their estimate for STY should be whatever is the 10-min Koba equivalent for 240 km/h (1-min) or T6.5(?)

[Cunxi Huang]

In BUFR format, you need a decoder. https://www.wis-jma.go.jp/d/o/RJTD/BUFR/Satellite(Himawari)/SAREP/

JMA 18Z T8.0/8.0.

2020-10-31 18:00 UTC

- Goni (2019) -
Position: 13.74N 125.00E
CI: 8.0 | DT: 8.0
MET: 8.0 | PT: 7.5
FT: 8.0

Where can I find their fixes? Also, seems like operationally this is going to be the strongest WPAC storm in a while. We will see in about half an hour.

[Highteeld]

2020OCT31 174000 7.7 902.5 161.0 7.7 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 19.58 -82.97 EYE 16 IR 54.0 13.79 -125.02 ARCHER HIM-8 24.3

Honestly wasn't sure if I'd ever see that again.

[ElectricStorm]

First raw 8.0 in ADT v9.0!

2020OCT31 174000 7.7 902.5 161.0 7.7 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 19.58 -82.97 EYE 16 IR 54.0 13.79 -125.02 ARCHER HIM-8 24.3

WOW!!