ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[us89]

If the 06z HWRF is right on timing, the core of this storm has around 19 more hours over water before it landfalls on Nicaragua at around 08z tomorrow morning. Plenty of time to strengthen to cat 4, with maybe an outside shot at 5. No intensity model currently takes it that far, but they are also all underestimating the current deepening rate - even the HWRF.

[Extratropical94]

AL, 29, 2020110212, , BEST, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 974, HU

Cat 2

[shiny-pebble]

Eye shrunk to 12NM

[Hypercane_Kyle]

ATCF up to 85 knots. Almost a certainty Eta will make landfall as a major hurricane at this point. Might even push 115 knots if the HWRF is to be believed.

[GCANE]

VDM:
2mb drop to 972mb
Eye contracting to 12nm wide.

[aspen]

ATCF up to 85 knots. Almost a certainty Eta will make landfall as a major hurricane at this point. Might even push 115 knots if the HWRF is to be believed.

At this deepening rate, assuming the core remains intact, Eta could make a run for 130-140 kt by tonight. These WCar pinhole systems have proven to be extremely unpredictable this year.

[us89]

VDM:
2mb drop to 972mb
Eye contracting to 12nm wide.

Eye is also 4C warmer this pass.

[kevin]

[aspen]

When is the next recon flight for today?

[Iceresistance]

Has there ever been a system that has crossed over from the Atlantic to the Pacific and then crossed back over to the Atlantic??

I found no record of a double crossover, since 1851

1934 Central America Hurricane was likely the one.

[supercane4867]

[wxman57]

It's looking like Eta may emerge off the coast of Honduras on Friday then track slowly NE across the Caribbean. Probably will regain TS strength by next Sunday and possibly hurricane strength next week. Might meander in the NW Caribbean for a while, waiting to be picked up by a passing trof to the north. My money is still on an eventual Louisiana landfall, most likely on Thanksgiving Day...

[HurricaneEnzo]

Looks like an eye might be about ready to pop out on IR

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[us89]

When is the next recon flight for today?

Looks like it leaves at 10am EST and should get there a few hours later.

[Cutt]

Good Morning from SE Fl, been tracking storms since Andrew. This might not matter much but is there an actual accepted standard on pinhole eyes or is it usually just an eye approximately 10 miles across. I tried to find it on the NHC website and google had a bunch of mentions about 10 miles but no specific standard I could find.

[SconnieCane]

https://imgur.com/STDLMSl

I wonder if this could intensify through the whole range of Category 3 in about half an hour like Delta did. In that case, Category 5 is definitely not off the table.

Edit: It also looks much more like a classic hurricane than Delta did during its ERI phase. Delta pre-Yucatán always looked kind of weird and not like a high-end hurricane apart from that really mean core.

[aspen]

When is the next recon flight for today?

Looks like it leaves at 10am EST and should get there a few hours later.

So an arrival around 17-19z. If Eta continues this deepening rate of 4.2 mb/hr, by the time recon arrives, it could be a 940s Cat 4 hurricane.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

[supercane4867]

☢️

[Keldeo1997]

Lots of lightning showing up now