ATL: ETA - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

The long range models are starting to come into agreement of a large, caged monster pacing back in forth in the Western Caribbean just waiting to strike at the first opportunity a trough gives them. The next 10 to 14 days are likely to be crazy.

[p1nheadlarry]

A mid November strong 'cane into the FL peninsula. That would be one for the books. The ONLY one for the books.

Not the peninsula but Hurricane Kate hit Mexico Beach as a solid Cat-2 right around Thanksgiving in '85. Worst storm in the Big Bend region until Oct 10 2018.

Indeed but Kate was not a Caribbean storm. She is one of your TWO examples since 1859 … the other was not of Caribbean origin either. So this would be a first time for the books should it happen. Still a long shot though.

Ok, but Michael was of Caribbean origin (CAG); however not your traditional WCARIB storm a la Wilma or Gilbert.

[toad strangler]

Not the peninsula but Hurricane Kate hit Mexico Beach as a solid Cat-2 right around Thanksgiving in '85. Worst storm in the Big Bend region until Oct 10 2018.

Indeed but Kate was not a Caribbean storm. She is one of your TWO examples since 1859 … the other was not of Caribbean origin either. So this would be a first time for the books should it happen. Still a long shot though.

Ok, but Michael was of Caribbean origin (CAG); however not your traditional WCARIB storm a la Wilma or Gilbert.

Michael was in October. Not November.

[Deshaunrob17]

Another win for the GFS in 2020... Looks like Euro is trending to the Caribbean side... More importantly, another win for GFS para for picking up this system.... GFS Para has been leading the way the tropical cyclone genesis in the Atlantic even though it can be a tad bullish

[p1nheadlarry]

Indeed but Kate was not a Caribbean storm. She is one of your TWO examples since 1859 … the other was not of Caribbean origin either. So this would be a first time for the books should it happen. Still a long shot though.

Ok, but Michael was of Caribbean origin (CAG); however not your traditional WCARIB storm a la Wilma or Gilbert.

Michael was in October. Not November.

I read "one of your two examples" as literally one of my two examples

[TheStormExpert]

Only parallel I can think of is Michelle in 2001

Makes sense. Just don’t see how a storm can strike Florida from the SW in November. I expect the models to shift south and east with the latest 12z guidance trending that way.

[SconnieCane]

Only parallel I can think of is Michelle in 2001

Makes sense. Just don’t see how a storm can strike Florida from the SW in November. I expect the models to shift south and east with the latest 12z guidance trending that way.

Same way Wilma did in late October...

[boca]

Only parallel I can think of is Michelle in 2001

Makes sense. Just don’t see how a storm can strike Florida from the SW in November. I expect the models to shift south and east with the latest 12z guidance trending that way.

I agree with you because earlier I pointed out the same thing and another poster pointed out that high pressure is supposed to build back in and turn it NW towards us.

[tolakram]

The term Florida shield does not belong in this discussion or frankly any discussion, I'm tired of reading about it and the dumb responses. I moved a bunch of posts to the moderation area.

STAY ON TOPIC. If you want to discuss model runs and scientific analysis (as best we amateurs can) that's fine, but stop the nonsense please.

[wxman57]

NHC track is right along consensus (TVCN). I figured they couldn't keep it inland forever in the 5-day forecast. Times on the graphic are in CST. Last point of the NHC track is 6am Saturday. Last point in TVCN is 6am Monday.

[gatorcane]

This is definitely a time to not put much stock in the models beyond 5 days especially until we see what re-emerges into the Gulf of Honduras. But taking a peek at the start of 12Z global guidance already shows a big shift east with the ICON:

[toad strangler]

This is definitely a time to not put much stock in the models beyond 5 days especially until we see what re-emerges into the Gulf of Honduras. But taking a peek at the start of 12Z global guidance already shows a big shift east with the ICON:

https://i.postimg.cc/cJwYWPBY/icon-mslp-wind-watl-fh96-174.gif

This type of scenario would be most expected per climo and what I think will happen should Eta survive the CA plunge.

[Blown Away]

This is definitely a time to not put much stock in the models beyond 5 days especially until we see what re-emerges into the Gulf of Honduras. But taking a peek at the start of 12Z global guidance already shows a big shift east with the ICON:

https://i.postimg.cc/cJwYWPBY/icon-mslp-wind-watl-fh96-174.gif

I think if extrapolate that past 180 hours, Eta would be forced back W. Crazy track.

[Hurricane Mike]

If that EURO model panned out, the rainfall would be historically devastating for Central America.

[AutoPenalti]

This is definitely a time to not put much stock in the models beyond 5 days especially until we see what re-emerges into the Gulf of Honduras. But taking a peek at the start of 12Z global guidance already shows a big shift east with the ICON:

https://i.postimg.cc/cJwYWPBY/icon-mslp-wind-watl-fh96-174.gif

So whatever happened to that massive ridge people were talking about?

[chris_fit]

This is definitely a time to not put much stock in the models beyond 5 days especially until we see what re-emerges into the Gulf of Honduras. But taking a peek at the start of 12Z global guidance already shows a big shift east with the ICON:

https://i.postimg.cc/cJwYWPBY/icon-mslp-wind-watl-fh96-174.gif

Same with the GFS through 130 hours - Way E

[Blown Away]

This is definitely a time to not put much stock in the models beyond 5 days especially until we see what re-emerges into the Gulf of Honduras. But taking a peek at the start of 12Z global guidance already shows a big shift east with the ICON:

https://i.postimg.cc/cJwYWPBY/icon-mslp-wind-watl-fh96-174.gif

Same with the GFS through 130 hours - Way E

My guess is a loop beginning @130 hours.

[AutoPenalti]

This is definitely a time to not put much stock in the models beyond 5 days especially until we see what re-emerges into the Gulf of Honduras. But taking a peek at the start of 12Z global guidance already shows a big shift east with the ICON:

https://i.postimg.cc/cJwYWPBY/icon-mslp-wind-watl-fh96-174.gif

Same with the GFS through 130 hours - Way E

My guess is a loop beginning @130 hours.

Nope.

[supercane4867]

Stalled over Cuba with ridge on top

[chris_fit]

Looks like it's going to go the other way now (West or NW) @ 160 hours.