ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

I’m surprised Iota is taking so long to clear its eye, despite the excellent outflow and continued 2-3 mb/hr deepening rate.

[ClarCari]

https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1328128065742934017

This kid has no idea.

Hi. "This kid" here. What issue do you have with my post? The microwave pass is suggestive of an EWRC sooner rather than later. That doesn't mean it's a certainty, the band could break down or be slower to congeal into a solidified secondary eyewall. These things are hard to predict. Iota will be a very strong storm at landfall regardless.

But it’s not necessarily a sign of it by any means. I get the point you are trying to make, but it’s still another one of those “signs” that are being misdirected as a sign of EWRC. Contracting eyes have many many causes.
If the outerbands were completely disconnected from the eyewall then maybe, but this microwave actually suggests the outerwall trying to become “one” with the eyewall rather than choking it out.

[supercane4867]

No northerly component at all so far. HWRF track is going to bust again if current trend holds.

[aspen]

No northerly component at all so far. HWRF track is going to bust again if current trend holds.

HWRF is great for structure and pretty good with intensity. Track...not so much. It was way too far north with Laura as well and didn’t anticipate the center shift that kept it on the Greater Antilles Tour track.

[TorSkk]

Shame that recon can only do two passes before having to return

[LarryWx]

https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1328128065742934017

This kid has no idea.

Hi. "This kid" here. What issue do you have with my post? The microwave pass is suggestive of an EWRC sooner rather than later. That doesn't mean it's a certainty, the band could break down or be slower to congeal into a solidified secondary eyewall. These things are hard to predict. Iota will be a very strong storm at landfall regardless.

Not to downplay the intensity at landfall, which is looking quite scary right now; but, regardless of what it turns out to be, the big story by far will almost certainly turn out to be the flooding rains because this area is normally so susceptible and now this is coming less than 2 weeks after the terrible Eta. Here is the 18Z Euro 3 day rainfall ending at hour 90. It is bad enough as this shows, but it is probably a bit underdone for the heaviest rain/mountains plus there will likely be still more rain soon afterward. Prayers are needed as regards getting the flood and mudslide vulnerable successfully evacuated to safety, which is complicated by COVID:

[skyline385]

The outer bands in the NW quadrant seem to continue to weaken, looks like interaction with dry air based on Water Vapor images...

[ClarCari]

Fret not, another recon is about to depart Biloxi.

[aspen]

Fret not, another recon is about to depart Biloxi.

Recon has been running like clockwork with Iota. It’s refreshing to have everything working and on schedule.

Assuming this deepening rate keeps up and the eye actually begins to clear, recon should find a 945-955 mbar Cat 3/4 when it arrives.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The outer bands in the NW quadrant seem to continue to weaken, looks like interaction with dry air based on Water Vapor images...

There isn't dry air in the vicinity, and in fact, a band is firing in the NW as we speak

[skyline385]

The outer bands in the NW quadrant seem to continue to weaken, looks like interaction with dry air based on Water Vapor images...

There isn't dry air in the vicinity, and in fact, a band is firing in the NW as we speak

Not sure what you are seeing at but look at the spiral band on the western quadrant fall off in this loop, yes additional towers maybe firing but thats not what i am talking about

https://imgur.com/a/AAKXcha

And here is the Water Vapor loop, you can see the dry air interacting with the outer spiral bands in NW quadrant

https://imgur.com/a/c3dr6Zo

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1328128065742934017

This kid has no idea.

Hi. "This kid" here. What issue do you have with my post? The microwave pass is suggestive of an EWRC sooner rather than later. That doesn't mean it's a certainty, the band could break down or be slower to congeal into a solidified secondary eyewall. These things are hard to predict. Iota will be a very strong storm at landfall regardless.

Looking at the latest satellite IR loop I think that is exactly what happened. The eye collapsed and a new one has started to form. Each storm has its own personality, but storms either seem to never want to have one (Laura) or they do so frequently. This might just be one that does, but I'm pretty certain about what I am seeing.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The outer bands in the NW quadrant seem to continue to weaken, looks like interaction with dry air based on Water Vapor images...

There isn't dry air in the vicinity, and in fact, a band is firing in the NW as we speak

Not sure what you are seeing at but look at the spiral band on the western quadrant fall off in this loop, yes additional towers maybe firing but thats not what i am talking about

https://imgur.com/a/AAKXcha

I'm looking at the WV that you suggested. I dont see any degradation, sorry, but I dont see it. You have to be careful with the colorized WV images. If you look at the BL/WH you will see it much more clearly

[skyline385]

There isn't dry air in the vicinity, and in fact, a band is firing in the NW as we speak

Not sure what you are seeing at but look at the spiral band on the western quadrant fall off in this loop, yes additional towers maybe firing but thats not what i am talking about

https://imgur.com/a/AAKXcha

I'm looking at the WV that you suggested. I dont see any degradation, sorry, but I dont see it.

You dont see the dry air interacting with the outer spiral bands in the NW quad in this loop?

https://imgur.com/a/c3dr6Zo

[ScottNAtlanta]

Not sure what you are seeing at but look at the spiral band on the western quadrant fall off in this loop, yes additional towers maybe firing but thats not what i am talking about

https://imgur.com/a/AAKXcha

I'm looking at the WV that you suggested. I dont see any degradation, sorry, but I dont see it.

You dont see the dry air interacting with the outer spiral bands in the NW quad in this loop?

https://imgur.com/a/c3dr6Zo

I dont think that is dry air. It's the energy consolidating in the core. They do that when they start to rapidly deepen.

[ClarCari]

Not sure what you are seeing at but look at the spiral band on the western quadrant fall off in this loop, yes additional towers maybe firing but thats not what i am talking about

https://imgur.com/a/AAKXcha

I'm looking at the WV that you suggested. I dont see any degradation, sorry, but I dont see it.

You dont see the dry air interacting with the outer spiral bands in the NW quad in this loop?

https://imgur.com/a/c3dr6Zo

I do see what you’re saying but that phenomenon is actually excess mass going away whilst the deepest convection fires up at the surface. When a storm strengthens, all of that excess convection has to go somewhere.

At times in can actually be a sign against EWRC happening anytime soon as if that convection wasn’t exhaling fast enough, it would possibly consolidate inward and eventually work towards the eyewall and choke it as that kind of mass would end up being stronger than the eyewall if not exhaled.

[hipshot]

964 MB

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF305-0431A-IOTA_dropsonde2_20201115-2251.png

I see these plots all the time, what is the difference between the red and green lines?

The red lines are the wind speed, & the green lines are the humidity, there are details about it to the right on the data sheet.

Thanks.

[us89]

964 MB

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF305-0431A-IOTA_dropsonde2_20201115-2251.png

I see these plots all the time, what is the difference between the red and green lines?

The red lines are the wind speed, & the green lines are the humidity, there are details about it to the right on the data sheet.

No. The red line is temperature, green is dewpoint temperature.

Essentially, the plot is a version of something called a skew-t, which plots changes in temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed/direction with height (or more accurately, pressure). The red and green lines track temperature and dewpoint, while wind is shown as wind barbs to the right of the main plot.

Meteorologists use plots like these all the time. Usually they're obtained from weather balloons, but dropsonde data can also be shown in this format.

[cheezyWXguy]

I see these plots all the time, what is the difference between the red and green lines?

The red lines are the wind speed, & the green lines are the humidity, there are details about it to the right on the data sheet.

Thanks.

Red line is temperature, green line is dew point. Wind barbs are shown on the far right edge

[Iceresistance]

I see these plots all the time, what is the difference between the red and green lines?

The red lines are the wind speed, & the green lines are the humidity, there are details about it to the right on the data sheet.

Thanks.

But I have a correction, the red line is the temperture line, not the wind speed .