ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ClarCari]

I declare Zeta a landmark....just doesn't seem to want to move anywhere...

Speaking of which, where’s Paulette in all of this?! She never wanted to leave the scene.. Her swirl is out there somewhere right!..? Pretty sure Bermuda’s gotta stake in her somewhere...

[TallyTracker]

The mid level shear appears to be dropping as I don’t see clouds impinging on the circulation from the north now. Maybe a tad from the northeast but that’s it. The upper level shear is practically gone now as the burst of outflow citrus to the north indicates.

[LarryWx]

Maybe it is just me, but I'm not seeing RI on the verge at least as of yet. It looks more like slow strengthening to me near where the NHC has been forecasting.

[NDG]

I declare Zeta a landmark....just doesn't seem to want to move anywhere...

It should start really moving by tomorrow morning as ridging builds to the north over FL forcing it to move WNW to NW towards the Yucatan P.

[underthwx]

I declare Zeta a landmark....just doesn't seem to want to move anywhere...

It should start really moving by tomorrow morning as ridging builds to the north over FL forcing it to move WNW to NW towards the Yucatan P.

Or better yet....out to sea to cold water......

[NDG]

I declare Zeta a landmark....just doesn't seem to want to move anywhere...

It should start really moving by tomorrow morning as ridging builds to the north over FL forcing it to move WNW to NW towards the Yucatan P.

Or better yet....out to sea to cold water......

What cold weather?

[underthwx]

It should start really moving by tomorrow morning as ridging builds to the north over FL forcing it to move WNW to NW towards the Yucatan P.

Or better yet....out to sea to cold water......

What cold weather?
https://i.imgur.com/ZHr12lv.gif

Like the North Atlantic, so it can dissipate....I'm -removed- it to go away, and not cause anyone problems....that's all I meant

[Steve]

Wow, went for a look at IR on satellite and was shocked. This storm appears to be stacked now and no way this doesn’t push MH status before Yucatán, RI looks very plausible.

You think? Maybe NHC bumps up wind speeds, but I think the last forecast had it peaking at 80k

Not a single NHC forecast has ever and could never predict RI at rates such as Wilma, Delta, or anything similar as RI is a hard thing to predict not only because it is tricky to predict it happening at all, but no one can hardly predict how much it could RI. If it vertically stacks sooner than later than the NHC forecast atm goes out the window, which the NHC is “happy” to admit in their discussions.

“No way it doesn’t push for MH?” I’m not saying it can’t or it won’t. But it’s not 100%.

[aspen]

Peak raised to 75 kt.

[underthwx]

I declare Zeta a landmark....just doesn't seem to want to move anywhere...

Speaking of which, where’s Paulette in all of this?! She never wanted to leave the scene.. Her swirl is out there somewhere right!..? Pretty sure Bermuda’s gotta stake in her somewhere...

Paulette?

[ozonepete]

Maybe it is just me, but I'm not seeing RI on the verge at least as of yet. It looks more like slow strengthening to me near where the NHC has been forecasting.

It's just you, Larry.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Definitely much more symmetric storm this evening. Wouldn’t doubt a rather quick burst of intensification tonight as long as the sneaky mid-level shear doesn’t pick back up again.

Can’t believe I’m looking at a storm in the NW Caribbean that is a threat to the Northern Gulf Coast at the end of October.

I’ve never seen anything like this season as far as models go with these Caribbean system. Every single one..Laura, Sally, Delta, and now Zeta...all started with tracks hitting Florida and just kept moving west every single run. It hasn’t been a windshield wiper effect, but rather a fan effect with each run pushing it further away from Fla. Its just been so strange.

You could add Marco to that list too

[NDG]

24 hr IR satellite loop, you can see how now the convection is expanding to the north, a sign that the northerly mid level shear is going away.

[wx98]

Interesting that despite all the stalling and meandering the NHC forecast has Zeta further north (on land) by 2 pm Wednesday than it was yesterday afternoon on Advisory 1. So all this stalling has not changed the forecast.

[underthwx]

Maybe it is just me, but I'm not seeing RI on the verge at least as of yet. It looks more like slow strengthening to me near where the NHC has been forecasting.

It's just you, Larry.

Laugh out loud...

[NevadaFan18]

Maybe it is just me, but I'm not seeing RI on the verge at least as of yet. It looks more like slow strengthening to me near where the NHC has been forecasting.

It's just you, Larry.

Coming from a professional met, that’s ominous.

I definitely see the ceiling being higher than what’s currently being thrown around/forecasted. Inflow is sucking in air parallel to the dry pocket in the SW Gulf, which currently is allowing Zeta to attain an impressive CDO (-80°+). Realistically, like with so many storms this year, the only thing holding it back is it’s own structure and time over water. Like with what Levi said in his update video earlier today, the high pressure over Florida is being shown more amplified than in previous runs. I wouldn’t take your eye off of Zeta if you are Florida, there’s still plenty of time for the models to windshield wipe (which, weirdly has been rarely happening this year). If I could bet money on if Zeta reaches MH status, I would go all in; this is one of the most favorable synoptic set ups in the short-term (24ish hours) all season. Of course there are the variables that we can’t predict like mid-level shear coming out of no where (Delta), but in my eyes, insane OHC, abating shear, and a decent structure (from what we can tell w/ IR) is a deadly combination for strengthening rapidly.

Not a met of course though, so take what I say with a grain of salt or two.

[ColdMiser123]

Appears to be the most vertically stacked it has been so far, recon will be telling if the ~2 mb/hr drop found earlier continued.

[LarryWx]

Maybe it is just me, but I'm not seeing RI on the verge at least as of yet. It looks more like slow strengthening to me near where the NHC has been forecasting.

It's just you, Larry.

Well then, I'm on my own and proud.

The NHC 11 PM update/Dvorak agree that it has only been gradually strengthening as of the 11 PM update and they're still not forecasting RI. The next recon will likely be informative as regards whether or not RI is soon to or has started to commence. As of now, I think their forecast is reasonable.

[underthwx]

Interesting that despite all the stalling and meandering the NHC forecast has Zeta further north (on land) by 2 pm Wednesday than it was yesterday afternoon on Advisory 1. So all this stalling has not changed the forecast.

I have been thinking about that too...all day long I would check the NHC, expecting to see track changes, etc...but no changes of note...

[us89]

Believe it or not, this is at least the fourth forecast cone we've had in Atlanta so far this year after Laura, Sally, and Delta. Current NHC forecast already has us at a 20% chance of TS force winds.

If the track shifts west like several other storms this year have done, we would once again be on the right side of a landfalling Gulf storm. Depending on track, timing, and other factors, we might even see another tornado event similar to what we had with Delta.