ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Almost there.
33 knt, 30-sec SFMR, in the clear.

[Aric Dunn]

They not flying into the convection. The need to head south....

Yes they definitely need to head south. unless they are just looking for strong winds.

[GCANE]

Whoa, flying at 900'.

[HurricaneEnzo]

If it is the western lobe that wins out no way this is hitting the NHC track. Due west with no signs of any gain in latitude. I feel like they think the Eastern lobe wins out because it is the only way their current track makes any sense. Interesting times ahead.

[tropicwatch]

Whoa, flying at 900'.

Nap of the earth time yeehawwww

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Whoa, flying at 900'.

Ultra-low level recon.

[northjaxpro]

I'm shocked that recon is finding upper-level TS winds with the way it looks on satellite.

We have seen storms that look pretty impressive but are actually weak and vice versa. Like they say, never judge a book by its cover.

Yes, so true!!

[jlauderdal]

I'm shocked that recon is finding upper-level TS winds with the way it looks on satellite.

We have seen storms that look pretty impressive but are actually weak and vice versa. Like they say, never judge a book by its cover.

Yes, we have seen some really impressive IR returns and recon finds a wave axis

[AutoPenalti]

Whoa, flying at 900'.

Nap of the earth time yeehawwww

Search and Rescue?

[Do_For_Love]

If it is the western lobe that wins out no way this is hitting the NHC track. Due west with no signs of any gain in latitude. I feel like they think the Eastern lobe wins out because it is the only way their current track makes any sense. Interesting times ahead.

I feel similarly about the heading. The system has seemed "off track" to me in that the main convection isn't heading NW to my eye. I suppose the eastern part of the storm is going NW, but it is much weaker. Idk, just an observation.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Aric Dunn]

Hey the Barbados radar turned on.. looking good..

https://www.barbadosweather.org/Composi ... 700&MAPP=1

[wxman57]

So far, looks like borderline TS winds at surface (which was expected), but the LLC (or LLCs) may be too disorganized for any upgrade. A surface pressure of 1008mb would not support very high winds. Not seeing anything to suggest a Gulf threat at this time.

[Aric Dunn]

There is something very LLC looking on the last couple frames here

https://www.barbadosweather.org/Composi ... 1595956044

[MississippiWx]

Looks like recon has almost found the southwestern center already.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like recon has almost found the southwestern center already.

no they need to head SW now.. what you see there is the boundary between the dying lobe to the NE and the much more defined circ to the SW>

[EquusStorm]

Major uncertainty and potential chaos... just what you'd expect for the 'I' storm.

[MississippiWx]

Looks like recon has almost found the southwestern center already.

no they need to head SW now.. what you see there is the boundary between the dying lobe to the NE and the much more defined circ to the SW>

Possibly.

Think the area you are looking at could be mostly mid-level. We will see.

[tiger_deF]

Major uncertainty and potential chaos... just what you'd expect for the 'I' storm.

Only I was expecting it in late August/September

[supercane4867]

Major uncertainty and potential chaos... just what you'd expect for the 'I' storm.

This year we may have some additional chaos with the pronunciation...

[TheProfessor]

Looks like recon has almost found the southwestern center already.

no they need to head SW now.. what you see there is the boundary between the dying lobe to the NE and the much more defined circ to the SW>

Possibly.

Think the area you are looking at could be mostly mid-level. We will see.

That area currently has the greatest focus of energy at the 925, 700, and 500 millibar levels. 850 millibar vorticity could be argued to be more spread out, but with all other levels of energy focusing on the southwest portion of the storm and the strongest convection currently located over that area, then this is the location where'd you expect a closed low to form.