ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1304850557409153027

[Aric Dunn]

I guess sally wants to go visit Marco island first.. Radar showing it heading along the coast to the NW almost NNW.

well right of track if it gets that far north.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1304850557409153027

Hm, if so it'll become more symmetric as it moves away from the state.

[Kazmit]

No TS warnings for the Keys and the west coast?

[blp]

I guess sally wants to go visit Marco island first.. Radar showing it heading along the coast to the NW almost NNW.

well right of track if it gets that far north.

Yep it's right of the track. If that keeps up that heavy banding over the keys will soon get into the Miami-Dade metro area and bring in good soaking.

[3090]

This is why sally worries me so much. If pattern is similar to 2005 in some ways it stands to reason storms in the gulf could continue to over perform. Remover that was the year we had Rita and Katrina back to back...worries Laura and sally could be in similar company. Obviously lots to watch but we are back in a pattern where the gulf can produce big ones quickly (Laura, Michael) so I am watching this with baited breath

Not to be overly corrective, but Katrina and Rita, were not back to back. Neither are Laura and Sally.

I guess back to back is relative. A month apart is close in major hurricane time, not to be overly corrective.

I m speaking relative to the alphabet. Not sure how else you would say, back to back storms.

[jhpigott]

Light winds across Keys. Only significant wind is along SE peninsula.

http://wxman57.com/images/19a.JPG

Yep. Windy day here in NE Palm Beach County. PBI reported 29 mph sustained and gusted to 40.

[StPeteMike]

I guess sally wants to go visit Marco island first.. Radar showing it heading along the coast to the NW almost NNW.

well right of track if it gets that far north.

Haha that’s why I asked if the slower speed and weaker system would be impacted more by land interaction compared to a stronger system or one moving ~15 mph. My prediction is an AL/FL or just east landfall.

[3090]

I guess sally wants to go visit Marco island first.. Radar showing it heading along the coast to the NW almost NNW.

well right of track if it gets that far north.

Haha that’s why I asked if the slower speed and weaker system would be impacted more by land interaction compared to a stronger system or one moving ~15 mph. My prediction is an AL/FL or just east landfall.

Based on what data? All reliable models are pointing towards MS/LA border, or west.

[Aric Dunn]

I guess sally wants to go visit Marco island first.. Radar showing it heading along the coast to the NW almost NNW.

well right of track if it gets that far north.

Haha that’s why I asked if the slower speed and weaker system would be impacted more by land interaction compared to a stronger system or one moving ~15 mph. My prediction is an AL/FL or just east landfall.

you always have to watch out for things like that when you have a developing system. shift north like this can change things a good deal.

[DestinHurricane]

I guess sally wants to go visit Marco island first.. Radar showing it heading along the coast to the NW almost NNW.

well right of track if it gets that far north.

Haha that’s why I asked if the slower speed and weaker system would be impacted more by land interaction compared to a stronger system or one moving ~15 mph. My prediction is an AL/FL or just east landfall.

Based on what data? All reliable models are pointing towards MS/LA border, or west.

I think he's saying it because it's moving more NNW right now. Probably just a wobble and will end up in LA or MS as models say.

[Aric Dunn]

seems to be beelining it for Marco island.

short term deviations north of track will case east shifts for landfall.

[MississippiWx]

HWRF was showing a short term paralleling of the coast before resuming a more westward course. I’m thinking this is due to northerly shear abating.

[StPeteMike]

Haha that’s why I asked if the slower speed and weaker system would be impacted more by land interaction compared to a stronger system or one moving ~15 mph. My prediction is an AL/FL or just east landfall.

Based on what data? All reliable models are pointing towards MS/LA border, or west.

I think he's saying it because it's moving more NNW right now. Probably just a wobble and will end up in LA or MS as models say.

We shall see if it’s a wobble. A couple hours of obs will tell us.

[MidnightRain]

HWRF was showing a short term paralleling of the coast before resuming a more westward course. I’m thinking this is due to northerly shear abating.

Yeah most models show a significant WNW course later in the Gulf just off the coast of the panhandle. This is due to the ridge. A landfall east of MS would be difficult.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think once it clears land it will looking better for a symmetry standpoint. As WXMAN says, look for a Cat 1 to hit the North Gulf States. If I were to guess,I'd say 80 MPH at landfall....So wind wouldn't be a big issue. But once it hits land it will be slowing down, so really worried about the flooding rains.

[DestinHurricane]

I think once it clears land it will looking better for a symmetry standpoint. As WXMAN says, look for a Cat 1 to hit the North Gulf States. If I were to guess,I'd say 80 MPH at landfall....So wind wouldn't be a big issue. But once it hits land it will be slowing down, so really worried about the flooding rains.

Why do you think it won't strengthen more than that? It will have plenty of time over gulf.

[Aric Dunn]

There is also a distinct possibility that the low over the central/western Gulf, south of LA, and Sally interact a little and that might be pushing sally more on a NW motion. they connected


not precise drawing.. just a generalized thinking..

[Blow_Hard]

Just curious when they'll extend those watches and warnings westward towards the folks that will really be facing the impacts from Sally.

[Steve]

Not to be overly corrective, but Katrina and Rita, were not back to back. Neither are Laura and Sally.

I guess back to back is relative. A month apart is close in major hurricane time, not to be overly corrective.

I m speaking relative to the alphabet. Not sure how else you would say, back to back storms.

Back to back US or back to back Louisiana landfalls?