ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Siker]

Yeah neither of those coordinates for Best track make much sense lol they are not any of the vort maxes or the center of the Gyre..

https://i.ibb.co/KXZhJGp/Capture.png

It's 90w for the second set, not 95w.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah neither of those coordinates for Best track make much sense lol they are not any of the vort maxes or the center of the Gyre..

https://i.ibb.co/KXZhJGp/Capture.png

It's 90w for the second set, not 95w.

so it is.. lol apparently im blind.. 90W is better

[cycloneye]

Coordinates:16.5N 90.0W Google Maps Logo
138 statute miles (222 km) to the WSW (240°) from Belize City, Belize.Wind (1 min. avg.):20 knots (~23 mph | 10 m/s | 37 km/h)Mean Sea Level Pressure:1007 mb (29.74 inHg | 1007 hPa)

[Nimbus]

Yeah neither of those coordinates for Best track make much sense lol they are not any of the vort maxes or the center of the Gyre..

https://i.ibb.co/KXZhJGp/Capture.png

The small circulation in the BOC has some cold cloud tops nearby but apparently they think this one is headed inland?

[cycloneye]

Is broad.

[cycloneye]

Great thread from Papin.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1267257843276632064




 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1267276568906194945

[La Breeze]

Where are all the Texas and LA people ?? should be buzzing in there already lol ..

Mandeville, La checking in

near the coast - Vermilion Parish, LA checking in as well.

[Pas_Bon]

Where are all the Texas and LA people ?? should be buzzing in there already lol ..

Mandeville, La checking in

near the coast - Vermilion Parish, LA checking in as well.

Where at? I’m from Abbeville. Live in League City, TX now.

[TheProfessor]

Where are all the Texas and LA people ?? should be buzzing in there already lol ..

Mandeville, La checking in

You're pretty close to me then, I'm in Covington.

[EquusStorm]

Would love to see a good eastward arc after landfall if it makes the NW Gulf route to get some showers and 70s here; every day we can put off 98 and cloudless drought is a day closer to good ol' October

[SohCahToa]

Where are all the Texas and LA people ?? should be buzzing in there already lol ..

Mandeville, La checking in

You're pretty close to me then, I'm in Covington.

Just bought my first home near Rapatel after living in Mew Orleans and Metairie for years. Was looking forward to a lot of things about being a homeowner. Hurricane season wasn’t one of them lol

[tailgater]

Sabancuy radar seems to show some vorticity almost on top of radar site.

[Shell Mound]

It is concerning to see that the ECENS/GEFS have consistently shown the potential for a very strong system moving northward toward TX/LA should the remnants of Amanda manage to remain over the Bay of Campeche and intensify rather than drift southward/inland. In fact, several of the latest (12Z) ECENS members are now showing the potential for a major hurricane with pressures in the upper 950s or lower 960s. The long-range agreement between the strongest ECENS/GEFS members is rather disconcerting, suggesting that conditions in the BOC/W Gulf could be very conducive for an unusually intense June system, à la Audrey 1957, should (key term) any organised system remain over water rather than drift inland.
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1267267194112675840

[La Breeze]

Mandeville, La checking in

near the coast - Vermilion Parish, LA checking in as well.

Where at? I’m from Abbeville. Live in League City, TX now.

Currently in Kaplan - have a camp near Pecan Island.

[Pas_Bon]

near the coast - Vermilion Parish, LA checking in as well.

Where at? I’m from Abbeville. Live in League City, TX now.

Currently in Kaplan - have a camp near Pecan Island.

Aww, baw! Mais, who’s ya momma and them? Lol. Kidding.
That awesome. I moved here about 7yrs ago. Miss it back home.

[Shell Mound]

It is concerning to see that the ECENS/GEFS have consistently shown the potential for a very strong system moving northward toward TX/LA should the remnants of Amanda manage to remain over the Bay of Campeche and intensify rather than drift southward/inland. In fact, several of the latest (12Z) ECENS members are now showing the potential for a major hurricane with pressures in the upper 950s or lower 960s. The long-range agreement between the strongest ECENS/GEFS members is rather disconcerting, suggesting that conditions in the BOC/W Gulf could be very conducive for an unusually intense June system, à la Audrey 1957, should (key term) any organised system remain over water rather than drift inland.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1267267194112675840

I should note, however, that the ECENS suite tends to show excessive deepening, whereas the GEFS often underestimates intensification. The future interaction between the mesoscale and synoptic features is yet to be determined at this range. However, a more vigorous mid-level circulation in the short term—within the next five days—would be more likely to sense the mid-level weakness over the western Gulf of Mexico by the end of the medium term. Currently, based on satellite imagery, the MLC is situated over the Guatemala/Belize border—farther NW than the 12Z ECENS members indicated for this time-frame. This confirms that the MLC is deeper, more consolidated, and more vertically stacked than the ECENS forecast. Therefore, ex-Amanda may be able to organise faster once over the Bay of Campeche and also remain farther offshore. Beyond day five, a deeper system in the short term would also be more likely to make landfall farther east—say, closer to New Orleans, LA, than to Galveston, TX. The 1934 hurricane might make for a decent analog.

[GumboCane83]

Where are all the Texas and LA people ?? should be buzzing in there already lol ..

Mandeville, La checking in

near the coast - Vermilion Parish, LA checking in as well.

West Baton Rouge, La checking in!

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. The remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda are currently
located inland near the Guatemala-Yucatan Border. This large
disturbance is forecast to move slowly northward this morning,
followed by a northwestward motion later today, and the center of
the low pressure system could emerge over the southeastern Bay
of Campeche by this evening. If the remnants move back over water,
environmental conditions appear conducive to support some
development, and a new tropical depression could form while the
system moves little through the middle of this week. Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall is likely to continue
over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize,
and western Honduras during the next few days. For additional
information on the rainfall threat, see products from your national
meteorological service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Aric Dunn]

IT looks like a little Gyre like this morning..

I notice a lot of the EPS are doing much less of a cyclonic loop as well ..

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the Circ is about to move back over water. possibly right over the radar site.