ATL: FAY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[OuterBanker]

It is not unusual for a weak system to improve over land. It does appear that a more east shift is occurring which would improve the outlook for the outer banks if it gets in the water sooner. Mainly because most of the weather is east of the center. What is interesting is that for the moment the mid-level feeder bands are really expanding east of the center. This should bring rains to GA and SC sooner than expected. The front that starts in TN to the NC/SC border all the way to Edouard should kick it east if it makes it as far inland as the NC/SC border.

[EquusStorm]

Looks better than it did yesterday tbh

[Steve]

I’m really surprised this thing still has a clear circulation on visible satellite imagery, despite being well over land. This could help it get together quickly once it exits the coast; however, I doubt it’ll hold up that long.

I would take that bet. Almost all of the mesoscale models maintain it at least as a broad low, and many of the globals do as well. The issue, as wxman57 noted, is does it come off the coast or does it run up the coast inland. GFS sort of hints it stays close to the coast, while higher-resolution ICON shows it emerging, moving up past the Chesapeake Bay and then into Connecticut, Rhode Island and the MA Cape likely as a TS and not an STS. That's the way I'm reading it anyway. It shows 997mb around when it reaches up there.

[EquusStorm]

Even more ridiculously impressive on radar

[FireRat]

Fay '08 should have been retired. A memorable, record breaking cyclone. I talked about this in the thread last week about almost.hurricanes. Refer to that... The cyclone should have been among the very named TS to have been retired back then. This continues to bother me to this day!

I agree, Fay 08 should've been retired too, had like what, 4 landfalls in FL? It would be ironic if 98L strengthened over land and got named Fay again. Its radar signature is impressive tonsay the least!

[EquusStorm]

Seeing weak (10-15mph) but fairly consistent surface flow around that in observations, definitely has at least westerly, southerly, and easterly components

[northjaxpro]

Seeing weak (10-15mph) but fairly consistent surface flow around that in observations, definitely has at least westerly, southerly, and easterly components

This 98L has renarkably held its structure intact very well.over land. Impressive!

[supercane4867]

Looks like it's ready to become a TD as soon as it hits water.

[Nuno]

holding well over land huh, could this be Fay 2.0?
remember how well the '08 Fay did over FL, maybe this invest develops as soon as it gets to the coast again and ramps up off NC. moderate to strong TS most likely IMO.

⁰

Fay '08 should have been retired. A memorable, record breaking cyclone. I talked about this in the thread last week about almost.hurricanes. Refer to that... The cyclone should have been among the very named TS to have been retired back then. This continues to bother me to this day!

I believe Fay definitely attained minimal hurricane status too.

[EquusStorm]

Looks honestly like banding is trying to develop, and random convection scattered across the region is beginning to spiral inward; obviously wind observations don't scream super intense at the surface but this may be close to a tropical depression BEFORE it even leaves the coast. What a juggernaut

[weathaguyry]

The remarkable structure this has over land is concerning to me. Once this gets back over the water off the Carolinas, water temps are well into the 80s, and would support more intensification. I’m concerned we could be looking at a decent TS late this week headed straight for the Northeast.

[cycloneye]

A low pressure system is centered inland over southern Georgia.
The low is forecast to move northeastward, near the coast of the
Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic during the next few days. No
development is expected while the low remains over land, however
some development will be possible if the system moves over water
later this week. Regardless of development, the low is forecast to
produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause flash flooding
across portions of the southeast U.S. during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1280202844042387456

[Steve]

The remarkable structure this has over land is concerning to me. Once this gets back over the water off the Carolinas, water temps are well into the 80s, and would support more intensification. I’m concerned we could be looking at a decent TS late this week headed straight for the Northeast.

Probably deepening too. Right now it's tapped into Gulf moisture to it's west and southwest, Atlantic moisture to its northeast and even the ULL in Texas far to the west. It's all linked up and providing juice. No doubt in my mind it will be classified if it gets to the Atlantic Ocean.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

[tolakram]

Impressive looking.

SLIDER visible

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=5634.704345703125&y=4791.755615234375

[SconnieCane]

I would say "Hello, Dolly!" except that was a couple of storms ago. This one looks like it wants a name, if it can make it to water...

Looks at least as impressive as Cristobal did over WI.

[OuterBanker]

12z run for most of the models in pretty good agreement. Just inland up the coast. Exception is the Icon which is just off the Carolina coast for a couple of days and heading to "Bostin Haba" next weekend as a sub 1000 storm.

[Aric Dunn]

12z run for most of the models in pretty good agreement. Just inland up the coast. Exception is the Icon which is just off the Carolina coast for a couple of days and heading to "Bostin Haba" next weekend as a sub 1000 storm.

as it approaches the coast. expect convection to build offshore and this being pulled farther offshore.

if you notice in the models the circ becomes pretty board which open up a reformation offshore more.

[GCANE]

No doubt that is a feeder band running along the east coast of FL.
It coming from a huge 5000 CAPE pool SW of Tampa.
It tops out at 6500 CAPE, the highest I have ever seen.

[BYG Jacob]

No doubt that is a feeder band running along the east coast of FL.
It coming from a huge 5000 CAPE pool SW of Tampa.
It tops out at 6500 CAPE, the highest I have ever seen.

That would be an extraordinary tornado outbreak over land