ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[BYG Jacob]

That is quite the tail.

[Ivanhater]

Yes, the inflow arch to the north I mentioned last night is helping form a CDO over the LLC. I fully expect Gonzalo to be named today if trends continue

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[supercane4867]

Almost there.

[hurricaneCW]

NHC will go code red next update as this is clearly a developing TD/TS. I'm guessing they're waiting to see if the convection holds.

[TallyTracker]

I was skeptical last night and wanted to see a little more endurance. I am on board now! This is undoubtedly a tropical depression on the cusp of becoming a tropical storm. Much better organized and 2 more days of decent conditions. Moderate to strong TS is quite plausible.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Looks like we may be green for Gonzalo. I know it needs to sustain a little longer but appears on its way to doing just that. So much for no MDR storms in July if that is the case. I know I should fully expect the season cancel posts every year if we go a couple of weeks with no activity but it is getting a bit ridiculous. The models could show zero activity for weeks and then BOOM out of nowhere they flip and now there are storms where they were once showing nothing. Bottom line is we still aren't that good at prediction of tropical formation (especially that far out).

[Aric Dunn]

Ok before I look at anything else.. someone please tell me this is at least been upgraded by the tag number ? lol

[USTropics]

Hard to argue against the continual organization seen in the past 12 hours. Low-level circulation has become less elongated and more symmetrical:

Previous:


Current:


Banding features on the northern flank of the system are helping stave off against SAL intrusion, and effectively a protective pouch has become nested within the wave axis. These small systems can spin up quickly (but also are susceptible to sudden changes in environmental conditions as we'll observe later this week).


Most likely outcome is we see an increase to something like 60/80% by NHC, wait until next advisory to see how convection holds through the day. If the ASCAT pass in the next few hours shows a definitive surface circulation, that may force their hand though (given satellite presentation currently).

[SFLcane]

This should be upgraded today. I am impressed

[Aric Dunn]

Another thing to note is how quickly the Shear has dropped to near zero from yesterday.

and good on the CMC for being first lol

[Ivanhater]

This shows again how overall, global models have a hard time with these small systems.

Impressive things still want to develop even in a suppressed state over the basin.

[ScottNAtlanta]

First visible this morning shows some good inflow from the south and west, and the protective band on the north side.

[Ubuntwo]

[ScottNAtlanta]

I've seen named storms that look worse than this. If you look at the true color, you can actually see cross equatorial flow into this

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

[Aric Dunn]

This is very close to being a classified system if it isn't already one at this point.

While this may get named in the short-term, the mean flow in the Caribbean is still far too strong for a circulation to survive much beyond the Lesser Antilles. During which, 99L will likely open back up into a wave.

If this is a Moderate TS it wont have any issues by the time it gets to the carrib assuming it does not run into shear.

it has already doubled in size of its overall circulation which would help it with the increase flow. also assuming it does not continue to grow. and again assuming SAL or something does not get it before the carrib.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This should be an interesting TWO at 8am

[Ubuntwo]

This should be an interesting TWO at 8am

Probably the typical "If development trends continue"

[AutoPenalti]

The little Gonzalo that could?

[Aric Dunn]

This should be an interesting TWO at 8am

Probably the typical "If development trends continue"

lets hope it is at least 80 percent though lol

[Extratropical94]

If it keeps organizing at this rate, it will become a TS before July 24, 06Z with ease. Another possible record for 2020.