ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

Models have trended stronger and more towards a recurve in the 12Z suite (well I guess the Euro is the exception) after going through the NE Lesser Antilles. So it is possible but too early to know yet

It's way too early to call a trend. Especially before genesis. Trends happen closer in.

[EquusStorm]

I'll happily take an intense visually stunning ACE builder that just annoys fish, would be a nice trend if that DOES look like the case as we get closer

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2020072518, , BEST, 0, 105N, 300W, 25, 1010, WV, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 021,

[HurricaneFrances04]

[ScottNAtlanta]

Just an fyi...the GFS has a known recurve bias in the long/medium range (have not looked at it yet, but putting it out there)
Now that I look at it...thats a pretty scary track for GA, but not likely to verify just based on the odds.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Just an fyi...the GFS has a known recurve bias in the long/medium range (have not looked at it yet, but putting it out there)
Now that I look at it...thats a pretty scary track for GA, but not likely to verify just based on the odds.

This is still way too far out for anybody to assume anything. It hasn't even developed yet either.

[EquusStorm]

Vorticity remains ridiculously September-like with it, so impressive

[msbee]

Watching in St Maarten. Models look like they are converging right over us.

[cycloneye]

Watching in St Maarten. Models look like they are converging right over us.

Hi Barbara. I am getting very concerned with the trends of the models and it looks like it will be a large system. Let's see how things evolve in the comming days.

[chaser1]

I believe that a new center may be forming around 9.5N & 32.5 W. This would appear better aligned with the MLC. Now we wait for a bit of increased convection over and close to that point to see.

[FireRat]

The stakes are raised bigtime.

https://i.imgur.com/sO7KpxY.png

Bruh!
Gonna be a loooong week!

[TheStormExpert]

Watching in St Maarten. Models look like they are converging right over us.

Hi Barbara. I am getting very concerned with the trends of the models and it looks like it will be a large system. Let's see how things evolve in the comming days.

The models don’t seem to really ramp 92L up until it passes the NE Caribbean but you never know!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Watching in St Maarten. Models look like they are converging right over us.

Hi Barbara. I am getting very concerned with the trends of the models and it looks like it will be a large system. Let's see how things evolve in the comming days.

This thing could become a true sea monster in terms of size, if not intensity (or even both).

[Jr0d]

Models have trended stronger and more towards a recurve in the 12Z suite (well I guess the Euro is the exception) after going through the NE Lesser Antilles. So it is possible but too early to know yet

It's way too early to call a trend. Especially before genesis. Trends happen closer in.

Tough to put too much weight in the models before genesis. Especially since it looks like the center may be trying to form a bit further south.

After it is named and we get several model runs with good inputs, then I will start paying more attention to them, instead of flip flopping from saying its going out to sea vs going to the Yucatan every 12 hours.

[USVIKimmie]

Watching in St Maarten. Models look like they are converging right over us.

I’m about 100 miles west & watching as well

[HurricaneAndre2008]

506
ABNT20 KNHC 252314
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Hanna, located near the coast of south Texas. The National
Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on the remnants of
Gonzalo, located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea.

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next
week while the wave moves westward at around 15 mph across the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[cycloneye]

[msbee]

https://i.imgur.com/EtHrORH.jpg

Luis, we have to watch this one

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/EtHrORH.jpg

Luis, we have to watch this one

Yes, definitely this one will be a big one and we in the NE Caribbean have to be prepared. Let's see how all evolves in the comming days.

[Kazmit]

I'm getting bad vibes from this one, which is always the case when there is this much model support this far in advance. Not to mention it looks like it will take a classic Cape Verde hurricane track.