ATL: MARCO - Models

[eastcoastFL]

12Z GFS is trending for a stronger Rossby Wave in the GoM.
Wave may have minimal development in the Carib.
Likely shredded in the GoM.

You love those rosby waves

I do.
They drive a majority of the weather. Just about all outside of the tropics - baroclinic.

I always enjoy your input on that matter and when you break down where storms will moisture etc from. I’ve learned quite a bit from it.

[captainbarbossa19]

Does anyone have an image of the Euro ensemble tracks for this system from 12z?

[DestinHurricane]

Does anyone have an image of the Euro ensemble tracks for this system from 12z?

Go back a few pages.

[captainbarbossa19]

Does anyone have an image of the Euro ensemble tracks for this system from 12z?

Go back a few pages.

I'm not seeing anything. I see mainly a discussion over the GFS and GFS model images. Unless the post is hidden, no one has posted today's 12z Euro ensemble tracks.

[eastcoastFL]

Does anyone have an image of the Euro ensemble tracks for this system from 12z?

Go back a few pages.

I'm not seeing anything. I see mainly a discussion over the GFS and GFS model images. Unless the post is hidden, no one has posted today's 12z Euro ensemble tracks.

[Steve]

GFS ultimately takes the second wave to Brownsville/State of Tamaulipas.

Of some interest, the CMC has both systems in the Gulf simultaneously. Not sure about that solution at 192 hours. It goes on to bring 97L toward Beaumont but then drops it south along the Texas Coast where the following wave makes landfall in NWFL as at least a solid 970mb Cat 2.
https://i.imgur.com/GNoWOoC.png

Yah I recall models early on having Michael headed that way as a TS. All options are still open this early

Not to mention it’s the CMC so that salt shaker still needs to be close by despite some recent successes.

[Blow_Hard]

GFS ultimately takes the second wave to Brownsville/State of Tamaulipas.

Of some interest, the CMC has both systems in the Gulf simultaneously. Not sure about that solution at 192 hours. It goes on to bring 97L toward Beaumont but then drops it south along the Texas Coast where the following wave makes landfall in NWFL as at least a solid 970mb Cat 2.
https://i.imgur.com/GNoWOoC.png

Yah I recall models early on having Michael headed that way as a TS. All options are still open this early

Not to mention it’s the CMC so that salt shaker still needs to be close by despite some recent successes.

Not that I particularly think that either 97L or 98L will have any impact on the Florida Panhandle, as someone who rode out Hurricane Michael I can tell you that Panama City and other areas directly affected are still in recovery mode and just a strong TS or Minimal Hurricane could have devastating effects up here. We'll be closely watching the models and keeping our fingers, toes and eyes crossed.

[Steve]

Yeah. I've been down there a bunch since it's hit. I haven't been over by Tindall or down to Mexico Beach, but I've spent some time there and know what you mean. I was actually in civil court in DeFuniak Springs for a hearing the morning before it hit. Grey skies and drizzle on the way back to Pensacola that night. We lucked out there too. Keep everything crossed, because these two systems aren't going to be our last threats this year up on the north Gulf.

Looking forward to seeing the 00z models in a bit. According to Dr. Ventrice's site, we've crossed into Phase 8 MJO. So we're working our way into the positive phases. Otherwise, not much in the 18z runs I saw, so I'm looking forward to seeing what the globals show tonight.

[Blow_Hard]

Yeah. I've been down there a bunch since it's hit. I haven't been over by Tindall or down to Mexico Beach, but I've spent some time there and know what you mean. I was actually in civil court in DeFuniak Springs for e morning before it hit. Grey skies and drizzle on the way back to Pensacola that night. We lucked out there too. Keep everything crossed, because these two systems aren't going to be our last threats this year up on the north Gulf.

Looking forward to seeing the 00z models in a bit. According to Dr. Ventrice's site, we've crossed into Phase 8 MJO. So we're working our way into the positive phases. Otherwise, not much in the 18z runs I saw, so I'm looking forward to seeing what the globals show tonight.

Yeah, I'll probably get up around 1:30-2:00am ish to see what the King has in store on the 00Z.

BTW Steve, I thoroughly enjoy your posts and analysis. They are always insightful and well though out....

[Steve]

Thanks. I don't have that much technical knowledge, but I try to figure my way through as much as an amateur can. As someone who has faced my fair share of threats and being one of many on this site who has lost everything they own in a hurricane, I'm always trying to look at things from the angle of what impacts people on the ground might face. Our biggest fail in Katrina was preparing for winds instead of flooding. Instead of moving things to higher shelves, I took everything down and stashed it in lower closets and built-ins. Katrina crossed the loop current and winds went way into Cat 5 levels. Even though we knew it wouldn't stay that strong or be that strong in the city, we had about 9 hours to evacuate. We had to prepare for windows shattering and stuff getting blown everywhere and smashing. Who knew levees would break instead and flood everyone out? And even beyond that, not being able to get back to properties for sometimes 6-7 weeks (4 in our case), everything was ruined by then. So I'm acute to trying to look out for other people where I can and hope to bring some insight every once in a while.

2 hours until ICON which has become less aggressive with 97L in time but was certainly one of the first models to indicate it would be something to watch.

[DestinHurricane]

Yah I recall models early on having Michael headed that way as a TS. All options are still open this early

Not to mention it’s the CMC so that salt shaker still needs to be close by despite some recent successes.

Not that I particularly think that either 97L or 98L will have any impact on the Florida Panhandle, as someone who rode out Hurricane Michael I can tell you that Panama City and other areas directly affected are still in recovery mode and just a strong TS or Minimal Hurricane could have devastating effects up here. We'll be closely watching the models and keeping our fingers, toes and eyes crossed.

97L could certainly threaten the panhandle. Might not do much right now but once it gets in the gulf, watch out.

Still a few tarps around PC and Mexico Beach is just a construction zone. Would be very sad to see the panhandle get another hit. The economic impact of Michael and now covid is really hurting them. I can't even imagine what another cane would do. PC and MB are especially vulnerable because they typically get the bad side. Any landfall west of there in Destin over to the MS gulf coast is going cause major impacts to the east.

[Steve]

Word. I wonder what the named storm ceiling for the Gulf is this year*. We've had 2 named storms with 2 US landfalls and then Fay came down to swim but wasn't classified yet I don't think. 97L could b #3. Some models think so, others don't.

* I think 2005 had 8 including some historic majors. Hopefully we aren't headed in that direction.

[Blow_Hard]

Not to mention it’s the CMC so that salt shaker still needs to be close by despite some recent successes.

Not that I particularly think that either 97L or 98L will have any impact on the Florida Panhandle, as someone who rode out Hurricane Michael I can tell you that Panama City and other areas directly affected are still in recovery mode and just a strong TS or Minimal Hurricane could have devastating effects up here. We'll be closely watching the models and keeping our fingers, toes and eyes crossed.

97L could certainly threaten the panhandle. Might not do much right now but once it gets in the gulf, watch out.

Still a few tarps around PC and Mexico Beach is just a construction zone. Would be very sad to see the panhandle get another hit. The economic impact of Michael and now covid is really hurting them. I can't even imagine what another cane would do. PC and MB are especially vulnerable because they typically get the bad side. Any landfall west of there in Destin over to the MS gulf coast is going cause major impacts to the east.

The east side of town, Callaway/Springfield in particular were just demolished but pretty much everything east of PC Beach was hammered. I’ll be very tuned in to the models for the next few days. GFS is really struggling so far this season and it’s making the whole process much more challenging.

[Steve]

ICON out to 81 hours (4am CDT Friday)

[stormlover2013]

Icon tropical dep/storm at end of run, 98l shows it could be fish storm

[Steve]

162 hours and well tapped into Pacific feed if not super strong. 98L looks to be heading for major status.

[Steve]

180 hours (Tuesday 7am CDT). That's a solid TS, 2013 at 1001mb.

[Steve]

GFS @ 90 hours. Not much, but close to ICON's location.

[Steve]

GFS with its newest scenario through 132 hours is that 97L gets stuck around Belize and Mexico on the Yucatan for a few days and gets it down to the upper 990's. Meanwhile it washes out 98L near Cuba. Haha. Maybe it will make a comeback in later hours.

?

165 hours and it's down in the Bay of Campeche with nothing realistic left of 98L.

[Steve]

GFS looks to make its final landfall in Vera Cruz next Tuesday morning.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_29.png