WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

MetOp-B ASCAT and MW data confirms the center is right where it looks on IR.

https://i.imgur.com/hQZ4QV0.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/FKxUK9d.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/3YSSuMa.gif

The stage is set.

Weird how there are no barbs exceeding 45kts on the 13Z bullseye ASCAT pass.

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc20/WPAC/10W.MAYSAK/ssmi/scat/wind_barbs/20200829.1302.metop-b.ASCAT_IR.wind.10WMAYSAK.2815_062pc_60kts-983mb_170N_1289E_sft20200829_1200.jpg

Because of deep convection

[euro6208]

[Hayabusa]

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1299740862319136769



 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1299741736747634694

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1299740862319136769
https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1299741736747634694

It definitely looks like the JTWC and ADT estimates have the center of Maysak too far north. It appears to be within that tiny warm spot in the middle of the overshooting hot towers.

[Highteeld]

Multiple hot towers are rotating around the LLC now, which would agree with the assessment above that northerly shear has relaxed and the storm is now intensifying in earnest. Probably a low-end cat 1 at this point.

[1900hurricane]

Made a Maysak forecast that'll probably flop on its face. Track forecast is based on a blend of available guidance, and intensity is kind of a blend of HWFI/CTCI/1.5 T per day intensification.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1299755959238168576

[Highteeld]

Looks like we have at least two robust hot towers rotating around the center, would expect to see the formation of an eye in the next 5-10 hours

[NotoSans]

Don't have high-resolution MW to access development of eyewall, but given the convective structure on EIR I'd say an eye would likely pop out in the next 12 hours or so.

[1900hurricane]

Latest ATMS pass is ominous.

[NotoSans]

Looks like T4.5 on the latest EIR frame. Given the well-developed core on microwave and the favourable upper-level environment, wouldn't be surprised to see an intensification rate of 2.0T over the next 24 hours, which would already bring Maysak to a mid- to high-end category 4. HWRF shows a 42mb pressure drop to 928mb over the next 24 hours as well.

[Meow]

Looks like T4.5 on the latest EIR frame. Given the well-developed core on microwave and the favourable upper-level environment, wouldn't be surprised to see an intensification rate of 2.0T over the next 24 hours, which would already bring Maysak to a mid- to high-end category 4. HWRF shows a 42mb pressure drop to 928mb over the next 24 hours as well.

JMA confirmed CI4.5 just now (18Z).

[1900hurricane]

JTWC is at T4.0 for 18Z.

TPPN11 PGTW 291833

A. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MAYSAK)

B. 29/1800Z

C. 16.92N

D. 128.56E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.0 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET/PT IS 4.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
29/1301Z 16.77N 128.93E MMHS


MARTIN

[Hayabusa]

TY 2009 (Maysak)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 29 August 2020

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 29 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°05' (17.1°)
E129°00' (129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 95 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 440 km (240 NM)

[1900hurricane]

Here's the AMSR2 pass, which hit Maysak within about 5 minutes of the ATMS posted earlier.

[Hayabusa]

SK?

[Highteeld]

Still deepening

[EquusStorm]

Should at the very least become the strongest here thus far in 2020 by a long shot

[Highteeld]

[aspen]

IR imagery suggests Maysak is still in the process of building a core and isn’t quite ready to bomb out just yet, which is supported by those microwave passes showing an as-of-yet incomplete eyewall. However, I anticipate Maysak to be ready for RI in 6-12 hours. How strong it gets is now dependent on how large the eyewall is. If it’s not that large, I can see Maysak going absolutely berserk and making a run for super typhoon status, given how incredibly favorable its environment is.