ATL: NANA - Remnants - Discussion

[Visioen]

NHC changed their wording from "during the next day or two" to "during the next couple of days".

[GCANE]

This has gone from bad to worse.
What I am seeing on CIMSS and satellites versus what GFS has initialized is wrong on all levels.
IR satellites showing a top-of-boundary layer closed vort, nothing on GFS.
Anticyclone is way NE of PR. CIMSS has it on top of the ML vort.
WV imagery showing quickly ML organization.

Recon Scheduled

SUSPECT AREA (EASTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42
A. 01/1300Z
B. NOAA2 01FFA INVEST
C. 01/0930Z
D. 15.5N 75.0W
E. 01/1230Z TO 01/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[GCANE]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

[GCANE]

Composite IR-Satellite & ASCAT Wind-field Analysis

[plasticup]

GCANE with the big data as always. Looks like we should see some action shortly. Glad they are getting recon for this.

[Chemmers]

Looking very healthy this morning

[SouthDadeFish]

This disturbance looks less impressive to me today than it did yesterday. I think the lack of persistent, organized convection allowed the low-level structure to degrade. The latest ASCAT pass didn't even show much of a trough axis... Just some shear vorticity.

[HurricaneEnzo]

99l looking good. Pretty evident turning in the lower levels. Think we have 2 classified systems before the day is over with 90L in the mix. 2020 keeps on rolling.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... t=vis-swir

[SconnieCane]

The last three posts make my head spin. Are people looking at the same system?

[supercane4867]

This thing needs to slow down quite a bit if it wants to develop a closed LLC.

[GCANE]

A line of heavy convection along 16.5N
I suspect this may be the top of the wave axis and where the convective anticyclone is.
I am thinking late Tuesday or Wednesday is when it could form a surface low.
Could be a lot more north than what current models are projecting.
If recon flies tomorrow, should know a lot more then.

[GCANE]

WINDSAT 3 hrs ago

[ColdMiser123]

WINDSAT 3 hrs ago

https://i.imgur.com/GnHELMg.jpg

This supports a lot of the turning evident on satellite imagery this morning being related to a mid-level circulation. There is a bending of the wind flow on the western side of the wave envelope, but it's missing clear southeast winds around where you would typically expect to find just east of a trough axis.

[wxman57]

Fortunately, this system is heading for Central America. High pressure to its north is too strong to allow for movement into the Gulf. May become a TD or weak TS before it moves inland in a few days.

[ColdMiser123]

Continued convection on the north side of the wave axis would definitely be the best chance for this to try to close off a legitimate LLC, since that's where shear vorticity will be maximized.

[mpic]

Fortunately, this system is heading for Central America. High pressure to its north is too strong to allow for movement into the Gulf. May become a TD or weak TS before it moves inland in a few days.

I sure hope so!!

[MGC]

Some pretty decent spin....not sure it is closed off though. Good chance of a TC as per NHC.....MGC

[tropicwatch]

The TVCN did initialize further north.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

[tailgater]

The TVCN did initialize further north.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

Yes and the models thus far still take it into Honduras/Nicaragua area. I’m thinking the Development probabilities go down a notch or to on the next TWO. The mid level vorticity will need to be watched.

[GCANE]

A couple moderate helicity towers firing with occasional lightning just west of 70W.
Moving into a high Theta-E ridge.
Maybe some SW winds as seen on Visible-Satellite SW of the towers.