ATL: TEDDY - Models

[chris_fit]

Looks like it's going to recurve again, a little further E than 00Z Run

[chris_fit]

Door is wide open right now, but will the ridge rebuild? Being that it's mid-late Sept by now, going with a No.

[chris_fit]

Don't see this going anywhere except up up and away....

[SouthFLTropics]

Hour 198...the door may be closing. It’s going to be close.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[chris_fit]

Ridge trying to rebuild a little bit @ 200hrs, trough is moving on out - will it make the connection? Still meandering N of PR.

[Fancy1001]

Ridge trying to rebuild a little bit @ 200hrs, trough is moving on out - will it make the connection? Still meandering N of PR.

What are the chances of Sally trying to succeed where dorian failed?

[chris_fit]

[chris_fit]

You can definitely see it slow down and hesitate near the islands, gonna be a close one.... Anything after this is pure speculation, it does recurve around 65W so a decent E Shift compared to 00Z Run.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like another trough coming in at 210 will hold the door open.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SFLcane]

You can definitely see it slow down and hesitate near the islands, gonna be a close one.... Anything after this is pure speculation, it does recurve around 65W so a decent E Shift compared to 00Z Run.

West trends might be done. Signal for a recurve near 65-70w continues.

[hurricaneCW]

You can definitely see it slow down and hesitate near the islands, gonna be a close one.... Anything after this is pure speculation, it does recurve around 65W so a decent E Shift compared to 00Z Run.

West trends might be done. Signal for a recurve near 65-70w continues.

Islands to Bermuda most at risk right now. Very little ridging in the Atlantic, a huge difference compared to June-mid August.

The next CONUS risk will likely be from the western Caribbean or if a weak wave can make it far enough west.

Paulette & Sally likely to be big ACE producers as both may become majors eventually.

[Blown Away]

Recent model runs it’s more about 95L slowing forward speed, feeling the trough farther E, and deepening farther E gaining latitude to miss the NE Caribbean...

[chris_fit]

06Z GFS Ens say it's anybody's guess...

[SFLcane]

06Z GFS Ens say it's anybody's guess...

https://i.imgur.com/WJdBVaS.png

Yes huge spread. I was surprised by the amount of 00z eps members near FL.

[Fancy1001]

HWRF and HMON have finally started running.

[TheStormExpert]

06Z GFS Ens say it's anybody's guess...

https://i.imgur.com/WJdBVaS.png

Yes huge spread. I was surprised by the amount of 00z eps members near FL.

I’m surprised too. I’m expecting that to change on future model runs. Late September favors a recurve but the Eastern Caribbean islands could be threatened first.

[SFLcane]

06z EPS Definitely a SW shift compared to 00z bit still big spread.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

FWIW, 06z GFS and 06z HWRF both have 95L nearing major hurricane status in roughly 5 days. Even the Euro has it as an upper end cat 2 in 6 days.

While that's not impossible, the trend this year as far as MDR storms have been is weaker due to wind shear and dry air intrusion. Just something to keep in mind.

[ConvergenceZone]

I could tell before even reading by the reduced number of posts/pages this morning that the trend is out to sea now. It’s very difficult for a long tracker to make it to USA this time of year

[ElectricStorm]

I could tell before even reading by the reduced number of posts/pages this morning that the trend is out to sea now. It’s very difficult for a long tracker to make it to USA this time of year

It could still affect land IMO. still to early to know for sure. I think the main reason this one doesn't have all the attention right now is because of 96L staring the gulf coast in the face