ATL: DELTA - Models

[Ivanhater]

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[underthwx]

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The models seem to be fairly tightly gathered up....do you feel they have a good handle on 92L?....I realize it is not desigmated as a cyclone yet...but it appears as though the models are in some agreement at this point?

[Ivanhater]

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The models seem to be fairly tightly gathered up....do you feel they have a good handle on 92L?....I realize it is not desigmated as a cyclone yet...but it appears as though the models are in some agreement at this point?

I have seen models tightly clustered before this season and were completely wrong. Just look back at the consensus for Sally just a couple days out into SE Louisiana. She ended up close to the Alabama/Florida border.

The northern gulf coast needs a break so I hope this is just a rain event..

[MississippiWx]

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We haven’t taken a direct hit from a storm in Mississippi in some time. We have had a mini shield as well. Experience tells me this will hook hard right before hitting us or it will weaken significantly and come inland west of here.

[underthwx]

.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201004/0be4021c35f64140e3df4018d714a033.jpg

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The models seem to be fairly tightly gathered up....do you feel they have a good handle on 92L?....I realize it is not desigmated as a cyclone yet...but it appears as though the models are in some agreement at this point?

I have seen models tightly clustered before this season and were completely wrong. Just look back at the consensus for Sally just a couple days out into SE Louisiana. She ended up close to the Alabama/Florida border.

The northern gulf coast needs a break so I hope this is just a rain event..

I agree with you Ivan......enough already...thanks for your reply...

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro hits La with a TS. More importantly, the amount of rain being progged for much of the SE is heavy, including in areas hit had by Sally's rains:



Consistent with this wetter Euro is a much wetter 12Z EPS for the SE US due to a good number of members landfalling between Galveston and Apalachicola, 3 as Hs, 10/8-10, and mainly moving NE resulting in highest impact potential during 10/8-11

[Ivanhater]

18z just updated

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[SunnyThoughts]

Many here along the North gulf coast are still waiting for debris to be picked up from Sally's devastation. We certainly don't need any more wind.

[tropicwatch]

18z just updatedhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201004/23a8bd724017bb5c4f189e951fb5974c.jpg

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Very surprised at the tight grouping of the models a this stage.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_92.gif

[St0rmTh0r]

18z just updatedhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201004/23a8bd724017bb5c4f189e951fb5974c.jpg

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Very surprised at the tight grouping of the models a this stage.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_92.gif

Tell everyone on the gulf coast this wasn't a bad season wow. New Orleans in the strike zone what are conditions looking like?

[stormlover2013]

Models been bad all year, wed should have an idea

[stormchazer]

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone 26, located in the central Caribbean Sea, at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).

[CrazyC83]

What we need are extra balloon launches and the G-IV to fly. Still, seeing this forecast is unsettling.

[Emmett_Brown]

Interesting to compare the 12Z GEFS ensembles for Gamma and future Delta. The ensemble mean tracks take Gamma into the LA coast at roughly the same time and place as they do for Delta... crossing the coast in about 144 hours. The mean is just an average, but it shows how interaction between the two cyclones is likely unavoidable, and that model solutions will probably change, and track uncertainty is probably higher than average.

[LarryWx]

Interesting to compare the 12Z GEFS ensembles for Gamma and future Delta. The ensemble mean tracks take Gamma into the LA coast at roughly the same time and place as they do for Delta... crossing the coast in about 144 hours. The mean is just an average, but it shows how interaction between the two cyclones is likely unavoidable, and that model solutions will probably change, and track uncertainty is probably higher than average.

Looking at individual members, the hits on CONUS are from PTC 26. not from Gamma.

Meanwhile, 18Z GFS is similar to the 12Z.

[Emmett_Brown]

Interesting to compare the 12Z GEFS ensembles for Gamma and future Delta. The ensemble mean tracks take Gamma into the LA coast at roughly the same time and place as they do for Delta... crossing the coast in about 144 hours. The mean is just an average, but it shows how interaction between the two cyclones is likely unavoidable, and that model solutions will probably change, and track uncertainty is probably higher than average.

Looking at individual members, the hits on CONUS are from PTC 26. not from Gamma.

Meanwhile, 18Z GFS is similar to the 12Z.

Ah, ok, thanks for the clarification. I guess the trend over the last two GFS runs is for a stronger Delta to absorb Gamma.

[bella_may]

Does anyone have a link of all the times the models run? I think someone has posted it before

[CrazyC83]

Would a stronger Delta sooner (i.e. a cat 4 or 5 near western Cuba) change the potential track? I know the next 72 hours has virtually prime conditions.

[NevadaFan18]

Would a stronger Delta sooner (i.e. a cat 4 or 5 near western Cuba) change the potential track? I know the next 72 hours has virtually prime conditions.

Usually the rule is the stronger a storm is, the more poleward it goes. But, the UL pattern is weird with this one so who knows

[aspen]

18z GFS now misses W Cuba