WPAC: MOLAVE - Post-Tropical

[ElectricStorm]

It's definitely a typhoon. Getting better each frame. What are the agencies doing lol

JTWC has a lot of questionable calls... This is storm is no exception... They have struggled with rapidly organizing storms recently

[ManilaTC]

This dude is headed directly for the core. I wonder what's goin on there?

Dude is already in the core if sat to be relied on. PAGASA doing a good job on intensity, so far the closest.

[mrbagyo]

This dude is headed directly for the core. I wonder what's goin on there?
https://i.imgur.com/v7MIpwA.png

Dude is already in the core if sat to be relied on. PAGASA doing a good job on intensity, so far the closest.

The only positive thing here is that the ship is on the "clean side" side of this storm not on the dreaded RFQ.

[mrbagyo]

Radar is back!

[Hayabusa]

[ElectricStorm]

https://i.imgur.com/JWeA3jU.jpg

Absolutely no way this is a only a TS...

[mrbagyo]

here's the "45 knots" Tropical Storm Molave

[ElectricStorm]

here's the "45 knots" Tropical Storm Molave
https://i.imgur.com/dyD67LH.jpg

I don't understand how the JTWC, a major agency, can be so far off on a storm that will literally make landfall in hours. They have the data, they need to stop waiting until post-analysis to upgrade the storms...just upgrade them now. Especially obvious ones like this. I don't like slamming the professional agencies, but this is ridiculous...

[NotoSans]

Looks like the center will pass directly over or very close to Virac so we may see some pressure obs from there.

[ManilaTC]

here's the "45 knots" Tropical Storm Molave
https://i.imgur.com/dyD67LH.jpg

I don't understand how the JTWC, a major agency, can be so far off on a storm that will literally make landfall in hours. They have the data, they need to stop waiting until post-analysis to upgrade the storms...just upgrade them now. Especially obvious ones like this. I don't like slamming the professional agencies, but this is ridiculous...

They have to follow a process duh... since there are no US interests in Bicol, they wont care.

[NotoSans]

To be fair to JTWC, 45kt is the estimate from JMA and JTWC sets it at 55kt.

[Hayabusa]

STS 2018 (Molave)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 25 October 2020

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 25 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°25' (13.4°)
E124°40' (124.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 55 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 220 km (120 NM)
SW 165 km (90 NM)

[mrbagyo]

[doomhaMwx]

JMA gave an intensity of 60kts to Saudel (left) @ 00Z yesterday when deep convection was limited NW of an exposed center. ASCAT pass shortly thereafter only found 45kts. While the obviously stronger Molave (right) is estimated only 55kts by the same agency @ 06Z today.

[ManilaTC]

Catanduanes possibly in the NE eyewall now

[doomhaMwx]

SLP at Virac synop station already down to 985.8 mb as of 3pm PhT (07Z).

Update: Down to 981mb at 08Z.

[mrbagyo]

[doomhaMwx]

Thankfully, PAGASA has just upgraded it to a 70kt TY.

[euro6208]

60 knots


21W MOLAVE 201025 0600 13.4N 124.9E WPAC 60 988

[mrbagyo]

As of 4:30 PM local time Station pressure in Guinobatan, Albay (elev 72 feet) is 29.07 inHg (984.42 mb) or about 987 mb SLP if im not mistaken