ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

I am seeing some very cold tops within the CDO and for the first time, I am seeing pretty good indications that Hanna is building a solid inner core.

All of you on the Texas coast better buckle up. I am getting a bit nervous for you all out there because Hanna is really beginning to flex her muscle. I think she is well.on.her way to becoming a very formidable tropical cyclone!

[xironman]

Now that's a lot more symmetrical

[Jr0d]

That is some massive outflow and I dare say this is starting to resemble Katrina while it was over the Bahamas.

Almost textbook, very impessive.

I would very surprised if Hanna does not strengthen significantly today. I dont see anything to inhibit her right now. I expect rapid intensification, cant think of any other storms I can say that about. I hope I am wrong.

[AxaltaRacing24]

That is some massive outflow and I dare say this is starting to resemble Katrina while it was over the Bahamas.

Almost textbook, very impessive.

I would very surprised if Hanna does not strengthen significantly today. I dont see anything to inhibit her right now. I expect rapid intensification, cant think of any other storms I can say that about. I hope I am wrong.

I am hoping that July climo can at least keep her in check.

[Shell Mound]

That is some massive outflow and I dare say this is starting to resemble Katrina while it was over the Bahamas.

Almost textbook, very impessive.

I would very surprised if Hanna does not strengthen significantly today. I dont see anything to inhibit her right now. I expect rapid intensification, cant think of any other storms I can say that about. I hope I am wrong.

I am hoping that July climo can at least keep her in check.

If conditions are sufficiently conducive to rapid intensification, then July climatology doesn’t really matter. The W Gulf can support a Cat-5 right now.

[GCANE]

Watch for any large pressure drop from Recon.
The more the pressure drops, the more entrainment of high TPW air from the EPAC and W Carib.
The longer it sits before making landfall, the stronger it'll get.

[northjaxpro]

That is some massive outflow and I dare say this is starting to resemble Katrina while it was over the Bahamas.

Almost textbook, very impessive.

I would very surprised if Hanna does not strengthen significantly today. I dont see anything to inhibit her right now. I expect rapid intensification, cant think of any other storms I can say that about. I hope I am wrong.

..

I am afraid that you will not be wrong. Hanna is in about as close of an ideal environment you will see right now. There is very low shear, if at all, very warm ssts, a very moist environment, and worse of all, she is moving slowly currently. She is already beginning the intensification stage, So today there is no telling just how intense she could get. There is virtually nothing I see standing in her way. to really get going.

I hopeand stress to everyone out there to really buckle up because Hanna I am afraid is about to deliver a pretty good pucnch on the Texas coast on Saturday.

[GCANE]

Perfect example of "Don't Believe The Models"
CIMSS showing a strong anticyclone just to the west.
GFS showing it stuck between two anticyclones with a strong jet overhead.
I don't see any evidence of an UL Jet on satellite.

A good point was made last night.
A lot of model data comes from commercial airlines.
Due to COVID and the limits of flights, data could be very limited.

BTW, tracking into an anticyclone is a sure recipe for intensification.

[USTropics]

Some curved banding starting to appear within the CDO in the last few frames, signs Hanna is in the process of building an eyewall:

[Chemmers]

Wouldn't be surprised if it was close to a major hurricane by the end off the day

Seem like all the modal are playing catch up again

[xironman]

I thought they might have gone with a hurricane watch, but it is probably best to wait for data from the plane.

[michelinj]

This looks like all the components are falling into place for Hanna. The only obstacle I can see is sometimes storms try and run before they can walk, and it can take a while to sort out all it’s convection. Only an observation I’ve had with a few WPac storms in perfect conditions.

[GCANE]

BTW, I haven't seen any high-level drop missions.
I guess they are tied up with Douglas and Gonzo.
NOAA planes are doing LL missions into Hanna.
So, basically working blind knowing what's quantitatively going on in the upper troposphere.
CIMSS showing a totally clear path to the coast.
It'll hit a high CAPE pool just before landfall.
Troposphere will be saturated from sea surface to tropopause.
Very good chance for RI then.

[bob rulz]

Wouldn't be surprised if it was close to a major hurricane by the end off the day

Seem like all the modal are playing catch up again

I think a major hurricane by the end of the day is a BIG reach. This is still in the process of building a core. Could it be a major by landfall though? It's not like it can be completely ruled out, but I would still say that's a stretch.

[GCANE]

I haven't seen a warm core this high in the atmosphere before.
At this latitude, that's likely at the tail end of the stratosphere.
Clear tell of how well this is being vented and the strong anticyclone overhead.

[GCANE]

Looks like they may have lost radar satellite data too.
Last was 11 hrs ago.
If I am correct, should have had 2 passes by then.

[GCANE]

And no updates from Recon.

[Shell Mound]

Major U.S. Hurricane Landfalls in July, 1851–2019

21 Jul 1909 (TX): 100 kt / 959 mb
5 Jul 1916 (MS/AL): 105 kt / 950 mb
10 Jul 2005 (FL): 105 kt / 946 mb (DENNIS)

The main negative factor against Hanna’s reaching MH status pre-landfall, besides time, is the presence of some westerly mid- to upper-level shear, given the displacement of the UL anticyclone to the SW of the greatest LL convergence and hence convection, which also contributes to the slight tilt of the structure with height and the modest separation of the LLC from the MLC. Otherwise, the thermodynamic and synoptic environment is excellent for rapid intensification, given the dual outflow channels between upper lows to the SW and E of the system. However, the slow movement of the system while centred in a col could compensate somewhat and allow shear to subside in time as ridging builds to the NW and N of the system. Once vertical alignment takes place, expect rapid to explosive deepening. It’s not if, but when. If it happens in time, and Hanna continues to meander, than a Cat-3 or even Cat-4 at landfall is not out of the question.

Hanna: 120 kt / 939 mb at landfall in TX?

[xironman]

And no updates from Recon.

Recon is in the air and reporting

Time: 09:37:00Z
Coordinates: 27.667N 83.483W
Acft. Static Air Press: 464.0 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 6,493 m (21,302 ft)
D-value: 372 m
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 158° at 10 kts (From the SSE at 11.5 mph)
Air Temp: -8.8°C* (16.2°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 10 kts (11.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 14 kts (16.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr

[GCANE]

And no updates from Recon.

Recon is in the air and reporting

Time: 09:37:00Z
Coordinates: 27.667N 83.483W
Acft. Static Air Press: 464.0 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 6,493 m (21,302 ft)
D-value: 372 m
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 158° at 10 kts (From the SSE at 11.5 mph)
Air Temp: -8.8°C* (16.2°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 10 kts (11.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 14 kts (16.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr

See it now - thanks