WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

What happened with Virac RPUV (98446)? it stopped reporting

The latest figure at 19Z is 991.1hPa? I can see it.

got it, saw it now also

[Cunxi Huang]

Some GCOM fun. 115K PCT, what the hell.

[SouthDadeFish]

Some GCOM fun. 115K PCT, what the hell.

https://i.imgur.com/eroRC67.png
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc2020/WP/WP222020/png_dev/89pct/gcom-w1/20201031_173352_WP222020_amsr2_gcom-w1_89pct_170kts_12p41_1p0.png

WHAT!? That is an insane amount of ice in the eyewall. Just crazy.

[Highteeld]

Some GCOM fun. 115K PCT, what the hell.

https://i.imgur.com/eroRC67.png
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc2020/WP/WP222020/png_dev/89pct/gcom-w1/20201031_173352_WP222020_amsr2_gcom-w1_89pct_170kts_12p41_1p0.png

WHAT!? That is an insane amount of ice in the eyewall. Just crazy.

It would be like getting hit by a sledgehammer in those downdrafts

[mrbagyo]

i dont know if the reading's accurate but here it is.

[ElectricStorm]

I hope that Virac station survives... It would be nice to see just how low Goni's pressure is

[Kingarabian]

I would peg Goni at 175 knots, along with Angela from 1995. Haiyan I believe was at 185 knots, and Patricia around 180 knots

Officially: Patricia was 185kts and 872mb in pressure. Haiyan was 170kts.

[Ed_2001]

Eye once again clearing out during the last minutes...eyewall is probably onshore now.

[mrbagyo]

90.90 kph gust now being recorded in Tiwi, Albay.
Tiwi - pressure down to 991
Ligao City - 990.18 mb as of 20:10 UTC

[shah83]

The situation is most similar to supertyphoon Durian and Rammasun, maybe Nock-ten.

a couple of takeaways, is watch for lahar going off the volcano slopes, and Metro Manila can still get hit hard from a strong storm to the south.

[Hayabusa]

WDPN31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI)
WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A COMPACT, DENSE, AND SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH A WELL
DEFINED 12 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE PRESENT IN
THE EIR AND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 170 KTS IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T8.0
(170 KTS, PGTW, RJTD AND KNES) AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN AN ADVANCED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T7.8 (164 KTS) AND A 311654Z CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 161 KTS. THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND RADIAL UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). STY GONI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR LEGAZPI,
PHILIPPINES WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS AS AN INTENSE SUPER
TYPHOON. AFTER LANDFALL, CONTINUED MODERATE VWS AND
INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TO 75 KTS BY TAU 24, BY WHICH TIME
IT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE AT
THIS TIME AS HIGH (20-25 KTS) VWS HINDERS INTENSIFICATION
DESPITE CONTINUED WARM SST, THROUGH TAU 48. AS A RESULT,
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO 65 KTS BY TAU 36
AND FURTHER WEAKEN TO 60 KTS BY TAU 48. AT THIS TIME, VWS
WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY, HOWEVER SST WILL ALSO DECREASE
DURING THIS PERIOD. THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW STY GONI TO
MAINTAIN A 60 KTS INTENSITY BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH AN MAXIMUM
213 NM SPREAD IN TRACK SOLUTIONS BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS INITIAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS LAID NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, STY GONI WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND
MAKE A SECONDARY AND FINAL LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM
SOUTH OF DA NANG PRIOR TO TAU 120. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS AND
AFTER LANDFALL WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO ADDITIONAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL BE REDUCED TO
35KTS. NAVGEM DIVERGES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF
NUMERICAL MODELS AND JGSM TO THE LEFT, THEREBY OFFSETTING
EACH OTHER. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS
LAID ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/KeraunosObs/status/1322633552396247043

[Shell Mound]

Eye once again clearing out during the last minutes...eyewall is probably onshore now.

One can literally watch the eye warm every few minutes just as it moves onshore, per Himawari-8 rapid-scan data. It’s making an excruciating effort to be extreme.

[al78]

I would peg Goni at 175 knots, along with Angela from 1995. Haiyan I believe was at 185 knots, and Patricia around 180 knots

Officially: Patricia was 185kts and 972mb in pressure. Haiyan was 170kts.

You mean 872 mb?

[ElectricStorm]

Eye once again clearing out during the last minutes...eyewall is probably onshore now.

One can literally watch the eye warm every few minutes just as it moves onshore, per Himawari-8 rapid-scan data. It’s making an excruciating effort to be extreme.

It already is extreme...

[Cunxi Huang]

Virac Airport 981.1 hpa.

[Shell Mound]

Eye once again clearing out during the last minutes...eyewall is probably onshore now.

One can literally watch the eye warm every few minutes just as it moves onshore, per Himawari-8 rapid-scan data. It’s making an excruciating effort to be extreme.

It already is extreme...

I meant “extreme” as in “as extreme as humanly possible.”

[Kingarabian]

I would peg Goni at 175 knots, along with Angela from 1995. Haiyan I believe was at 185 knots, and Patricia around 180 knots

Officially: Patricia was 185kts and 972mb in pressure. Haiyan was 170kts.

You mean 872 mb?

lmao oops!

[aspen]

Eyewall is moving onshore now...must be an absolute nightmare there.

[Kingarabian]

I'm not completely familiar with the population areas in the Philippines, but has Goni's track shifted SW enough to spare the most populated areas?