ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[jaguars_22]

It looks to me like the nam is beginning to push a littler further north. If this thing reaches cat 2 could it come in at port o Connor still? Or is the high still too strong

[CyclonicFury]

Buoy 42395, which is NE of the center, reported a 33.1 kt sustained wind with a 44.7 kt gust.

[Ubuntwo]

Buoy 43295, which is NE of the center, reported a 33.1 kt sustained wind with a 44.7 kt gust.

Can't find a buoy 43295 on NDBC, mind linking?

[GCANE]

Current estimate from SATCON is 997 mb, 44 knots.
Let's see what recon says.

[CyclonicFury]

Buoy 43295, which is NE of the center, reported a 33.1 kt sustained wind with a 44.7 kt gust.

Can't find a buoy 43295 on NDBC, mind linking?

Meant to type 42395

[GCANE]

A tower going off a couple miles south of the CoC.
Not sure if a P3 can handle going thru this at 1500 ft.
Strong feeder-band convection firing up to the NE.
The longer the shrimp tail, the stronger this gets.

[supercane4867]

Hanna is looking rather healthy this morning.

[NDG]

Recon already observing higher flight level winds than on last night's mission.

105500 2634N 09035W 9205 00827 0111 +224 +213 167034 036 025 000 00
105530 2633N 09037W 9231 00805 0111 +227 +212 168033 034 025 000 00
105600 2632N 09038W 9228 00806 0110 +229 +205 166037 039 025 000 00
105630 2631N 09040W 9230 00804 0109 +227 +214 165040 040 025 000 00
105700 2629N 09041W 9229 00805 0110 +232 +193 167040 041 026 000 00

[NDG]

111130 2620N 09136W 9239 00777 0089 +224 +219 189033 035 034 006 00
111200 2620N 09138W 9240 00774 0088 +224 +216 190036 037 032 005 00
111230 2620N 09140W 9239 00775 0089 +223 +212 193037 037 029 005 00
111300 2620N 09142W 9239 00776 0089 +224 +206 196039 040 029 006 00
111330 2620N 09144W 9238 00775 0088 +223 +209 193039 039 031 006 00
111400 2620N 09146W 9240 00774 0087 +221 +210 191039 039 030 006 00
111430 2620N 09148W 9240 00772 0087 +220 +209 190039 040 030 005 00
111500 2620N 09150W 9240 00773 0087 +222 +208 190040 041 032 004 00
111530 2620N 09152W 9239 00772 0087 +221 +207 191040 041 032 004 00
111600 2620N 09154W 9238 00775 0087 +222 +203 195041 043 030 006 00
111630 2620N 09156W 9239 00775 0089 +216 +209 198044 045 033 006 00
111700 2620N 09158W 9239 00772 0088 +216 +211 201044 044 032 008 00

[NDG]

I guess some dry air and light northerly shear has gotten into Hannah during the night, recon finding the CoC on the northern edge of the convection.

[Ubuntwo]

I guess some dry air and light northerly shear has gotten into Hannah during the night, recon finding the CoC on the northern edge of the convection.

Doesn't look like a dry air issue considering the hefty convection. With the system's tilt to the south, northerly shear looks like the main culprit.

[zhukm29]

Winds are still relatively weak. Luckily, this thing will run out of time soon - the 55 kt forecast that NHC has seems right on the mark (barring some ridiculous RI, which seems less likely given the storm's current sheared structure).

[GCANE]

I think its the remnants from the hole last night.
I consider it a bubble of warm core air from all the latent heat flowing into it due to the surrounding convection.

[NDG]

Pressure down to ~1000mb.

113930 2713N 09246W 9255 00697 0005 +252 +226 086019 020 024 011 03

[AveryTheComrade]

Storm seems weaker than I thought it might be, 55kt peak seems a little high considering how little time it has left

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Yall know nhc is conservative right.

[NDG]

I guess some dry air and light northerly shear has gotten into Hannah during the night, recon finding the CoC on the northern edge of the convection.

Doesn't look like a dry air issue considering the hefty convection. With the system's tilt to the south, northerly shear looks like the main culprit.

Yep, definitely northerly shear now analyzed in the 10-15 knot range as the UL anticylone has pushed a little to the west of it.

[NDG]

Compared to last night the strongest winds are now farther away from its LLC.
We wouldn't see rapid intensification today if the light to moderate shear continues.

[hurricaneCW]

Euro has it intensifying quickly before landfall and that seems the likely course however it's generating some extremely strong convection right now.

If the shear lets up a tad that convection will envelop the center and then it could start intensifying earlier.

[GCANE]

Satellite radar about 1.5 hrs ago.
Recon puts it a bit north.