ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[OuterBanker]

This years GFS is like covid 19.

Wear a mask and stay at least 6 feet away.

[SFLcane]

No 06z runs yet but it’s interesting how the HWRF is strengthening 92L now in the Bahamas.

[DestinHurricane]

No 06z runs yet but it’s interesting how the HWRF is strengthening 92L now in the Bahamas.

https://iili.io/dAYAas.jpg

Its the HWRF, what else is it supposed to do?

[SFLcane]

No 06z runs yet but it’s interesting how the HWRF is strengthening 92L now in the Bahamas.

https://iili.io/dAYAas.jpg

Its the HWRF, what else is it supposed to do?

It had sheared blob last couple of runs also plenty of dry air.

[Aric Dunn]

No 06z runs yet but it’s interesting how the HWRF is strengthening 92L now in the Bahamas.

https://iili.io/dAYAas.jpg

Its the HWRF, what else is it supposed to do?

It had sheared blob last couple of runs also plenty of dry air.

HWRF has been doing far better than the globals this year..

[jlauderdal]

No 06z runs yet but it’s interesting how the HWRF is strengthening 92L now in the Bahamas.

https://iili.io/dAYAas.jpg

Its the HWRF, what else is it supposed to do?

Thats true about hwrf because thats what its default is..i would wxpect the other models to start showing a more intense system, conditions will be favorable and if it stays off the dr coast with minimal inflow issues, watch out

[Blown Away]

06z NAVGEM

[jlauderdal]

Its the HWRF, what else is it supposed to do?

It had sheared blob last couple of runs also plenty of dry air.

HWRF has been doing far better than the globals this year..

The bar has been low with the gfs and euro, that will change..the hwrf had its day, thats in the past, it can score some wins but beware

[Aric Dunn]

Not far from Hurricane strength.

6z EURO

[jlauderdal]

Not far from Hurricane strength.

6z EURO

Thats a major hurrican path for se florida, needs to stay away from dr

[Ritzcraker]

Seems like another classic case of “model over did the trough” this isn’t really a surprise...

[Blown Away]

Not far from Hurricane strength.

6z EURO

https://i.ibb.co/xzf1VyV/Capture.png

Thats a major hurrican path for se florida, needs to stay away from dr

Also, that is 3 days away, 92L is flying, things could go 0-60 real fast today...

[NDG]

I smell a track similar to Irma 2017 in the future.

[Aric Dunn]

Seems like another classic case of “model over did the trough” this isn’t really a surprise...

I have been saying since the models started showing recurve..

that cut off low/trough over the central US and Ohio valley.

does not exist it is spawned from a system that exists over canada leaving behind energy..

Typically I call it .. "The Models Phantom Trough Syndrom"

[Shell Mound]

I smell a track similar to Irma 2017 in the future.

https://i.imgur.com/HbZLdJv.gif

The EPS has not yet finished trending slower and deeper with the shortwave trough over the past six runs, so 92L could end up tracking farther W* than Irma.

*Farther W before curving northward




All images from Wikipedia

[northjaxpro]

I smell a track similar to Irma 2017 in the future.

https://i.imgur.com/HbZLdJv.gif

Narrow ridge extends into the North Florida area to the Northeast GOM on this particular EURO run. This likelywould take the potential Isaias on.a path into Florida.

Also the trough is hanging farther back over the the Mississippi Valley on this run.

[NDG]

I smell a track similar to Irma 2017 in the future.

https://i.imgur.com/HbZLdJv.gif

The EPS has not yet finished trending slower and deeper with the shortwave trough over the past six runs, so 92L could end up tracking farther W* than Irma.

*Farther W before curving northward

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/32/1903_Atlantic_hurricane_3_track.png/440px-1903_Atlantic_hurricane_3_track.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e6/1926_Miami_hurricane_track.png/440px-1926_Miami_hurricane_track.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d9/1935_Labor_Day_hurricane_track.png/440px-1935_Labor_Day_hurricane_track.png
All images from Wikipedia

It may get into the far eastern GOM but not that far as the first image. The EPS has been trending towards a deeper trough in the MS river valley but with still a strong Bermuda ridge to get it to threaten FL.

[SconnieCane]

The 00z GFS-para forecast shows what a well-organized system with enhanced diabatic outflow can do:
https://i.ibb.co/QFkb38s/gfsp-z850-vort-atl-fh0-180.gif

Hugo, is that you?

That NAVGEM run is also eerily similar...over PR to the Bahamas and into the Carolinas (although if I remember correctly, Hugo mostly missed the Bahamas to the east, taking a more direct NW track from PR to SC).

[northjaxpro]

I smell a track similar to Irma 2017 in the future.

https://i.imgur.com/HbZLdJv.gif

The EPS has not yet finished trending slower and deeper with the shortwave trough over the past six runs, so 92L could end up tracking farther W* than Irma.

*Farther W before curving northward

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/32/1903_Atlantic_hurricane_3_track.png/440px-1903_Atlantic_hurricane_3_track.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e6/1926_Miami_hurricane_track.png/440px-1926_Miami_hurricane_track.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d9/1935_Labor_Day_hurricane_track.png/440px-1935_Labor_Day_hurricane_track.png
All images from Wikipedia

It may get into the far eastern GOM but not that far as the first image. The EPS has been trending towards a deeper trough in the MS river valley but with still a strong Bermuda ridge to get it to threaten FL.

https://i.imgur.com/iv5n51u.gif

Yes NDG, that is pretty much right. I just gave a similar assessment earlier

[Blown Away]

12z... It's worth noting the TVCN spends @2 days slowly moving over E Central Florida... Still moderate TS or Cat 1 at the high end...