ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

eye is starting to warm very quickly now... pin hole eye coming very soon

[Do_For_Love]

Now that we're talking about ACE, does anyone have a link to a place where we can find the ACE of all or at least many storms? It will be interesting to compare Delta to other Caribbean cruisers like Wilma later on.

I second your request but sadly I don't have the information. I tried a google search but it didn't turn up much. This info is surprisingly difficult to find IMO.

[FLpanhandle91]

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

[Ryxn]

Now that we're talking about ACE, does anyone have a link to a place where we can find the ACE of all or at least many storms? It will be interesting to compare Delta to other Caribbean cruisers like Wilma later on.

I second your request but sadly I don't have the information. I tried a google search but it didn't turn up much. This info is surprisingly difficult to find IMO.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

Edit: Nevermind, I can't find the ACE for individual storms pre-2020 on that site....sorry

[aspen]

With how well the eye is coming along on visible, I’m thinking this could be close to 110 kt by now. We’ll know in only 20 minutes or so.

[GCANE]

Eye relative humidity measured at 86%.
Up from 63% last night.
Watching the trend today if it continues to increase as a possible precursor to a EWRC.

[Kazmit]

[supercane4867]

Now that's a pinhole. It's so small that you can barely spot it on microwave.

[cheezyWXguy]

https://i.imgur.com/74QkDs4.png

Reminds me of Felix 07 when it hit cat5 the second time

[supercane4867]

[Shell Mound]

https://i.imgur.com/74QkDs4.png

Reminds me of Felix 07 when it hit cat5 the second time

In terms of H/TS radii, this is actually much more analogous to the 1935 Labor Day hurricane, especially in terms of ERI. The circulation is tiny.

[p1nheadlarry]

Using the 970.4 mbar pass at 07:56AM UTC, this has deepened 2.95 mbar/hour over the last 4 hours. Another 20 hours of similar (not even increasing) intensification could make it a sub-900 mb system.

Yup, pressure falls are non-linear

[gfsperpendicular]

Now that we're talking about ACE, does anyone have a link to a place where we can find the ACE of all or at least many storms? It will be interesting to compare Delta to other Caribbean cruisers like Wilma later on.

I second your request but sadly I don't have the information. I tried a google search but it didn't turn up much. This info is surprisingly difficult to find IMO.

As always, wikipedia has the information you seek. Here's Wilma: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk%3A2005_Atlantic_hurricane_season%2FACE_calcs#25L.Wilma

[aspen]

Not even at the center and Kermit is already recording 95 kt FL winds and 978.8 mbar extrapolated pressure.

[kevin]

Now that we're talking about ACE, does anyone have a link to a place where we can find the ACE of all or at least many storms? It will be interesting to compare Delta to other Caribbean cruisers like Wilma later on.

I second your request but sadly I don't have the information. I tried a google search but it didn't turn up much. This info is surprisingly difficult to find IMO.

As always, wikipedia has the information you seek. Here's Wilma: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk%3A2005_Atlantic_hurricane_season%2FACE_calcs#25L.Wilma

Oh wow, I didn't know this existed, thanks.

[p1nheadlarry]

Eye relative humidity measured at 86%.
Up from 63% last night.
Watching the trend today if it continues to increase as a possible precursor to a EWRC.

Why is RH increase a sign of EWRC? Decreased radial inflow leading to less latent heating in the eye and thus +PV tendency in the eye?

[NotoSans]

Latest SHIPS RI indices show a 38% chance of 40kt within the next 24hrs. The initial intensity is 95kt so SHIPS is basically saying around a one-third chance that Delta will become a Cat5.

[p1nheadlarry]

https://i.imgur.com/74QkDs4.png

Reminds me of Felix 07 when it hit cat5 the second time

In terms of H/TS radii, this is actually much more analogous to the 1935 Labor Day hurricane, especially in terms of ERI. The circulation is tiny.

One of the few storms I wish we had satellite for. That and the LI Express.

[kevin]

New Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure is 957.2 mbar. That's another 2.4 mbar drop in about an hour.

[wx98]

Pressure still falling. It’s right on the edge...