ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[Shell Mound]

I smell a track similar to Irma 2017 in the future.

https://i.imgur.com/HbZLdJv.gif

The EPS has not yet finished trending slower and deeper with the shortwave trough over the past six runs, so 92L could end up tracking farther W* than Irma.

*Farther W before curving northward

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/32/1903_Atlantic_hurricane_3_track.png/440px-1903_Atlantic_hurricane_3_track.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e6/1926_Miami_hurricane_track.png/440px-1926_Miami_hurricane_track.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d9/1935_Labor_Day_hurricane_track.png/440px-1935_Labor_Day_hurricane_track.png
All images from Wikipedia

It may get into the far eastern GOM but not that far as the first image. The EPS has been trending towards a deeper trough in the MS river valley but with still a strong Bermuda ridge to get it to threaten FL.

https://i.imgur.com/iv5n51u.gif

If you look at the trough’s axis, you might observe that the loop shows the axis shifting from eastern Québec to western Ontario, indicating a substantial westward shift over the past four runs. Still, the trend toward a more amplified NHEM pattern, along with the orientation of the ridge relative to 92L’s/Isaias’ location, might indicate a track along or just east of the east coast of FL, meaning a track NNW toward NE FL (shout out to northjaxpro!), GA, or SC, à la the 1893 Sea Islands hurricane or Hugo ‘89, based on the operational ECMWF run(s). A track into Jacksonville, Savannah, or Charleston would be quite damaging, to not mention the impacts in the Bahamas.

Edit: That is the EPS, I apologize!

[SouthFLTropics]

Does anyone have the overnight UKMET?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[northjaxpro]

The EPS has not yet finished trending slower and deeper with the shortwave trough over the past six runs, so 92L could end up tracking farther W* than Irma.

*Farther W before curving northward

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/32/1903_Atlantic_hurricane_3_track.png/440px-1903_Atlantic_hurricane_3_track.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e6/1926_Miami_hurricane_track.png/440px-1926_Miami_hurricane_track.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d9/1935_Labor_Day_hurricane_track.png/440px-1935_Labor_Day_hurricane_track.png
All images from Wikipedia

It may get into the far eastern GOM but not that far as the first image. The EPS has been trending towards a deeper trough in the MS river valley but with still a strong Bermuda ridge to get it to threaten FL.

https://i.imgur.com/iv5n51u.gif

If you look at the trough’s axis, you might observe that the loop shows the axis shifting from eastern Québec to western Ontario, indicating a substantial westward shift over the past four runs. Still, the trend toward a more amplified NHEM pattern, along with the orientation of the ridge relative to 92L’s/Isaias’ location, might indicate a track along or just east of the east coast of FL, meaning a track NNW toward NE FL (shout out to northjaxpro!), GA, or SC, à la the 1893 Sea Islands hurricane or Hugo ‘89, based on the operational ECMWF run(s). A track into Jacksonville, Savannah, or Charleston would be quite damaging, to not mention the impacts in the Bahamas.

Edit: That is the EPS, I apologize!

Yeah, I already am prepping both around my house and making preps with my work schedule with the potential of Isaias i.pacting us here in Northeast Florida this weekend. I am about to be a very busy person, virtually non-stop for the coming days!!!

[Ubuntwo]

Does anyone have the overnight UKMET?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Much weaker due to continued land interaction, especially with Hispanola

[NDG]

The EPS has not yet finished trending slower and deeper with the shortwave trough over the past six runs, so 92L could end up tracking farther W* than Irma.

*Farther W before curving northward

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/32/1903_Atlantic_hurricane_3_track.png/440px-1903_Atlantic_hurricane_3_track.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e6/1926_Miami_hurricane_track.png/440px-1926_Miami_hurricane_track.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d9/1935_Labor_Day_hurricane_track.png/440px-1935_Labor_Day_hurricane_track.png
All images from Wikipedia

It may get into the far eastern GOM but not that far as the first image. The EPS has been trending towards a deeper trough in the MS river valley but with still a strong Bermuda ridge to get it to threaten FL.

https://i.imgur.com/iv5n51u.gif

If you look at the trough’s axis, you might observe that the loop shows the axis shifting from eastern Québec to western Ontario, indicating a substantial westward shift over the past four runs. Still, the trend toward a more amplified NHEM pattern, along with the orientation of the ridge relative to 92L’s/Isaias’ location, might indicate a track along or just east of the east coast of FL, meaning a track NNW toward NE FL (shout out to northjaxpro!), GA, or SC, à la the 1893 Sea Islands hurricane or Hugo ‘89, based on the operational ECMWF run(s). A track into Jacksonville, Savannah, or Charleston would be quite damaging, to not mention the impacts in the Bahamas.

Edit: That is the EPS, I apologize!

I don't see it gaining much latitude before FL, the latest 06z Euro ensembles' means still shows a strong narrow ridge to the north of it while it tracks near the Antilles before the trough deepens over in the MS river valley.

[aspen]

Here are details on the latest model runs, including the new parallel models.

06z GFS: still weak, but shows a slightly stronger TS, and the stall/recurve is delayed until this gets over Florida

00z ECMWF: finally shows a slightly stronger system that gets north of the Greater Antilles. While very weak at the end of the run, it sneaks through the Straits of Florida and into the western Gulf like Irma.

06z GFS-Para: most bullish of the models, shows a Cat 3 around the Bahamas/SEUS coast and recurves into the NE

06z CMC: continues to show a TS riding north of the islands before recurving off the SEUS coast and becoming a hurricane over the Gulf Stream. However, it’s slightly closer to land

06z NAVGEM: TS north of the Greater Antilles, becomes a hurricane around the Bahamas, and recurves. However, it’s closer to land than prior runs and ends up plowing into SC/NC

06z ICON: weak TS north of/through the Greater Antilles for 5 days; run doesn’t go far enough out to see if this recurves or not

00z HWRF: passes through Virgin Islands as a TS and starts becoming a hurricane at the Bahamas, reaching Cat 2/3 status close to Florida in 5 days. Not long enough to see recurve

00z HWRF-Para: passes through NW Lesser Antilles and remains a weak/moderate TS while tracking north of the GA until it nears Florida, possibly becoming a hurricane

00z HMON: just about the same track as the HWRF/CMC/NAVGEM and a very similar intensity to the HWRF, but it starts to recurve about a day earlier and well before it gets to Florida


All have just about agreed on 92L tracking through the very NW Caribbean and staying north of the Greater Antilles as it approaches the Bahamas. However, they’ve been diverging when it comes to the recurve. Out of the models that go far enough out, the EMCWF and GFS have a recurve over or west of Florida, while the CMC, NAVGEM, and HMON stick to a recurve east of Florida. Based on the westward shift to this run, I wouldn’t be surprised if the NAVGEM starts to follow a trend similar to the GFS/ECMWF in a couple of runs.

[northjaxpro]

It could at least enter into the extreme Eastern GOM based on that run image NDG before turning north/ northeast with the approach of the trough from the northwest.

[Kazmit]

I’m starting to wonder that a Hermine-like situation could be a possibility if it doesn’t gain much latitude and doesn’t strengthen due to land interaction.

[caneseddy]

Here are details on the latest model runs, including the new parallel models.

06z GFS: still weak, but shows a slightly stronger TS, and the stall/recurve is delayed until this gets over Florida

00z ECMWF: finally shows a slightly stronger system that gets north of the Greater Antilles. While very weak at the end of the run, it sneaks through the Straits of Florida and into the western Gulf like Irma.

06z GFS-Para: most bullish of the models, shows a Cat 3 around the Bahamas/SEUS coast and recurves into the NE

06z CMC: continues to show a TS riding north of the islands before recurving off the SEUS coast and becoming a hurricane over the Gulf Stream. However, it’s slightly closer to land

06z NAVGEM: TS north of the Greater Antilles, becomes a hurricane around the Bahamas, and recurves. However, it’s closer to land than prior runs and ends up plowing into SC/NC

06z ICON: weak TS north of/through the Greater Antilles for 5 days; run doesn’t go far enough out to see if this recurves or not

00z HWRF: passes through Virgin Islands as a TS and starts becoming a hurricane at the Bahamas, reaching Cat 2/3 status close to Florida in 5 days. Not long enough to see recurve

00z HWRF-Para: passes through NW Lesser Antilles and remains a weak/moderate TS while tracking north of the GA until it nears Florida, possibly becoming a hurricane

00z HMON: just about the same track as the HWRF/CMC/NAVGEM and a very similar intensity to the HWRF, but it starts to recurve about a day earlier and well before it gets to Florida


All have just about agreed on 92L tracking through the very NW Caribbean and staying north of the Greater Antilles as it approaches the Bahamas. However, they’ve been diverging when it comes to the recurve. Out of the models that go far enough out, the EMCWF and GFS have a recurve over or west of Florida, while the CMC, NAVGEM, and HMON stick to a recurve east of Florida. Based on the westward shift to this run, I wouldn’t be surprised if the NAVGEM starts to follow a trend similar to the GFS/ECMWF in a couple of runs.

Similar to an “I” storm from 2017. All the models showed recurve but where it made the recurve was the question.

[stormlover2013]

Needs to develop first

[Aric Dunn]

Phantom Trough Syndrom.

[TheStormExpert]

I smell a track similar to Irma 2017 in the future.

https://i.imgur.com/HbZLdJv.gif

The EPS has not yet finished trending slower and deeper with the shortwave trough over the past six runs, so 92L could end up tracking farther W* than Irma.

*Farther W before curving northward

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/32/1903_Atlantic_hurricane_3_track.png/440px-1903_Atlantic_hurricane_3_track.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e6/1926_Miami_hurricane_track.png/440px-1926_Miami_hurricane_track.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d9/1935_Labor_Day_hurricane_track.png/440px-1935_Labor_Day_hurricane_track.png
All images from Wikipedia

It may get into the far eastern GOM but not that far as the first image. The EPS has been trending towards a deeper trough in the MS river valley but with still a strong Bermuda ridge to get it to threaten FL.

https://i.imgur.com/iv5n51u.gif

Well there’s that Bermuda High we haven’t seen much of this summer.

[plasticup]

GFS-parallel on a coke-fueled bender through the Bahamas and into OBX:

[aspen]

Needs to develop first

I can’t wait for my entire post to be rendered irrelevant by the end of the day once recon data is put into the models. With ASCAT showing the SW lobe pinching off from the stretched-out original circulation, there might be a more defined center that today’s recon flight is able to find, which could easily change all of the models’ solutions.

[SFLcane]

Not far from Hurricane strength.

6z EURO

https://i.ibb.co/xzf1VyV/Capture.png

Um what!?

[SoupBone]

Yeah, last night's Para run was super fast as well. It wastes no time moving on out.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS Para insists on the yet-to-form shortwave over the midwest to get stronger to push this OTS.

[Siker]

GFS Para insists on the yet-to-form shortwave over the midwest to get stronger to push this OTS.

I see the Outer Banks and New England have been relegated to OTS status .

[SoupBone]

GFS Para insists on the yet-to-form shortwave over the midwest to get stronger to push this OTS.

I see the Outer Banks and New England have been relegated to OTS status .

The thing about the Para is that it doesn't really have an established history, not that it really needs one I guess. But the GFS and Euro are kind of the devils we know.

[gatorcane]

12Z NAM a bit stronger than the 06Z heading WNW in the SE Bahamas. 993MB.