ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Haven’t been on the last couple of hours, but I noticed that TD 13 finally initialized.

Of course now some models are actually weakening this right after this was classified. No surprises there.

[SouthFLTropics]

Feeling safeish for now up here in southern Martin county.

Ooof, that's it...Now you went and done it. Now you've cursed us on the Treasure Coast.

In all seriousness, I'll feel safe once this thing is north of us. Until then, all bets are off.

North of us? I like it better being south of us. I don’t want to see any shifts north. I feel like this one should stay to our south. I think it may end up missing Miami through the keys even...

North means it's headed out and won't likely come back (Except for Jeanne and Betsy). If it's South of us, we are still in play.

[DestinHurricane]

Feeling safeish for now up here in southern Martin county.

Ooof, that's it...Now you went and done it. Now you've cursed us on the Treasure Coast.

In all seriousness, I'll feel safe once this thing is north of us. Until then, all bets are off.

North of us? I like it better being south of us. I don’t want to see any shifts north. I feel like this one should stay to our south. I think it may end up missing Miami through the keys even...

Why do you like it better south of you? That would mean an onshore flow, worse winds, and higher probability of it shifting towards you as shifts northeast towards a recurve are usually more common than the other way in this situation.

[wx98]

Haven’t been on the last couple of hours, but I noticed that TD 13 finally initialized.

Of course now some models are actually weakening this right after this was classified. No surprises there.

The 6z models will be the first ones after classification, so we would wait to see what they do with it.

[ozonepete]

Haven’t been on the last couple of hours, but I noticed that TD 13 finally initialized.

Of course now some models are actually weakening this right after this was classified. No surprises there.

The 6z models will be the first ones after classification, so we would wait to see what they do with it.

The 12Z global will be most important/interesting.

[AutoPenalti]

Haven’t been on the last couple of hours, but I noticed that TD 13 finally initialized.

Of course now some models are actually weakening this right after this was classified. No surprises there.

The 6z models will be the first ones after classification, so we would wait to see what they do with it.

The 12Z global will be most important/interesting.

That’s assuming it’s established a center by then.

[jaxfladude]

Local Northeast Florida area impacts will be what strong winds lots of rains, or too soon to tell?

[curtadams]

It's a ginormous system, and big systems have a hard time staying formally closed. When the globals "lose" it maybe they're just thinking it'll stay a great big unclosed sort-of-low, which isn't crazy. Northerly convection notwithstanding, if you look at the clouds for an area not moving or going west, you have to look near the ITCZ, implying the surface low, if there is one, is pretty low latitude and far from that convection, which is not favorable for development.

[ozonepete]

Local Northeast Florida area impacts will be what strong winds lots of rains, or too soon to tell?

Way too soon.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1296235432066396161



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1296238371325521928



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1296240023940009984



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1296243480575070209



 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1296238992225120256

[ColdMiser123]

This was the 0z Euro forecast valid at hour 30, less than 2 hours from now. It didn't have any convection colder than ~-50 C, which clearly isn't the case so far, since we have plenty of <-70 C cloud tops.

[Hammy]

This was the 0z Euro forecast valid at hour 30, less than 2 hours from now. It didn't have any convection colder than -50 C, which clearly isn't the case so far, since we have plenty of <-70 C cloud tops.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EfyWC9qWsAAo_9U?format=jpg&name=medium

Seems like the Euro simply isn't reading the atmosphere correctly. GFS/Icon have pretty similar scenarios, along with the CMC albeit with it's typical east bias--and all three vastly different than the Euro.

[ozonepete]

This was the 0z Euro forecast valid at hour 30, less than 2 hours from now. It didn't have any convection colder than ~-50 C, which clearly isn't the case so far, since we have plenty of <-70 C cloud tops.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EfyWC9qWsAAo_9U?format=jpg&name=medium

Shows how much further both we and the models have to go.

[SouthFLTropics]

Whoever made that Miami to Cedar Key forecast a little bit ago. CMC is not far off from it. Maybe a hair north on the landfall.

[ColdMiser123]

This was the 0z Euro forecast valid at hour 30, less than 2 hours from now. It didn't have any convection colder than ~-50 C, which clearly isn't the case so far, since we have plenty of <-70 C cloud tops.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EfyWC9qWsAAo_9U?format=jpg&name=medium

Shows how much further both we and the models have to go.

This could be an excellent satellite DA case study for a graduate research project.

[ozonepete]

Here’s my forecast and those between Palm Beach to the Key West May need to prepare for a major hurricane

Here is the forecast intensity

Now. TD. 35mph
12hrs. TS. 40mph
24hrs. TS. 45mph
36hrs. TS. 50mph
48hrs. TS 60mph
72hrs. C1. 80mph
96hrs. C2. 100mph
108hrs C2. 110mph over Miami
120hrs C1 85mph Over Lakeland
144hrs. C1. 80mph near Cedar Key

You really have to put a plainly visible disclaimer on a forecast like that (or any really) that it's a non-professional opinion.
There are a lot of people on here who might panic after seeing your forecast and spread it to other people.

[Evil Jeremy]

You really have to put a plainly visible disclaimer on a forecast like that (or any really) that it's a non-professional opinion.
There are a lot of people on here who might panic after seeing your forecast and spread it to other people.

Unrelated, but remember 10+ years ago when people had their own forecast threads with regular “advisories”? And the pro-Mets has their own forum for their personal advisories? Good times...

[Hurricane Mike]

Have there been any synoptic flights ahead of this thing yet?

[Hurricaneman]

Have there been any synoptic flights ahead of this thing yet?

Not yet but I do expect them either tomorrow or Friday

[Shell Mound]

Personally, I think there is a good chance that this ends up missing FL to the east, given that models are underestimating short-term as well as long-term organisation. The key is that the ridge to its north is going to be narrow. Any changes in either the size/intensity of 98L and/or the orientation of the ridge axis relative to the numerous shortwave impulses will make a tremendous difference, since 98L will be nearing the Bahamas and FL at an angle, heading WNW or even NW. This puts us in yet another Matthew-, Irma-, or Dorian-type scenario, with potentially large ramifications. Note that the global models show persistent northwesterly flow over the Northeastern U.S. This kind of pattern normally would favour a sharp curve at some point, especially if one is contending with a powerful major hurricane. Of course, uncertainty is still high at this stage, but climatology and the upcoming setup combined would normally favour a track missing FL, especially if we are dealing with a major hurricane.

CMC
ECMWF
EPS