ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Center is now much closer to the deep convection than what it was this morning, shear is once again letting up some.

[GCANE]

Eye drop at 988mb

[NDG]

Eye drop at 988mb

https://i.imgur.com/lrzPCAW.png

With 22 knot surface winds is probably more like 986-987mb.

[galaxy401]

Eye drop at 988mb

https://i.imgur.com/lrzPCAW.png

With 22 knot surface winds is probably more like 986-987mb.

Correct, the NHC has 986 for the advisory.

[NDG]

Is getting organized much quicker than I thought it was going to do this afternoon, amazing how quickly things change.

[AnnularCane]

This storm wants to live!

[Iceresistance]

Is getting organized much quicker than I thought it was going to do this afternoon, amazing how quickly things change.

https://i.imgur.com/OOhj4qg.gif

It looks like it restacking & recoupled.

[kevin]

I think I spoke to soon about this not becoming a hurricane before its 1st landfall. Ever since I made that post Zeta has started to improve significantly.

[crimi481]

Water vapor shows the front barreling down pretty fast. Zeta must move quickly for it to stay in forecast cone. Timing is everything. eh?
Not a pro

[NDG]

We have a hurricane.

URNT15 KNHC 261855
AF309 0728A ZETA HDOB 25 20201026
184630 1926N 08549W 6958 03042 9853 +136 +119 021008 011 030 001 00
184700 1926N 08549W 6958 03042 9848 +144 +113 012018 021 012 001 03
184730 1926N 08553W 6967 03034 9838 +154 +114 012023 025 009 000 03
184800 1928N 08553W 6949 03056 9836 +156 +111 030019 025 /// /// 03
184830 1929N 08552W 6963 03036 9825 +164 +109 073020 022 011 000 00
184900 1931N 08550W 6960 03041 9809 +181 +098 095029 035 016 001 00
184930 1932N 08549W 6956 03046 9796 +194 +080 107035 036 028 000 00
185000 1933N 08547W 6960 03041 9817 +173 +098 114040 042 037 000 03
185030 1935N 08545W 6955 03050 9822 +170 +106 118044 046 045 001 00
185100 1936N 08544W 6956 03052 9848 +149 +119 123050 053 059 003 00
185130 1936N 08544W 6956 03052 9871 +139 +132 133053 055 062 010 00
185200 1939N 08540W 6958 03065 9889 +131 +129 138060 064 069 003 01
185230 1940N 08538W 6955 03076 9891 +120 +119 139058 061 071 002 01
185300 1942N 08537W 6959 03079 //// +084 //// 137055 059 071 003 01
185330 1943N 08535W 6955 03090 //// +082 //// 140056 058 070 004 01
185400 1944N 08533W 6956 03093 //// +080 //// 139060 063 068 002 01
185430 1946N 08531W 6954 03102 //// +091 //// 136058 061 068 002 01
185500 1947N 08530W 6960 03097 //// +104 //// 135059 062 063 001 01
185530 1948N 08528W 6962 03101 9959 +108 +097 138062 063 064 000 05
185600 1950N 08526W 6955 03112 9965 +108 +091 137057 062 066 002 03
$$
;

[NDG]

979mb extrap pressure on the latest pass, wow.

184930 1932N 08549W 6956 03046 9796 +194 +080 107035 036 028 000 00

[kevin]

979mb extrap pressure on the latest pass, wow.

184930 1932N 08549W 6956 03046 9796 +194 +080 107035 036 028 000 00

This one is ramping up fast .

[aspen]

WOW, that was a massive pressure drop and wind increase form last pass. Easily a 65-70 kt, 980 mbar Cat 1 hurricane.

[GCANE]

Eye Drop
985mb
Interesting that the last 2 eye drops showed 100% RH at 700mb

[NDG]

Eye Drop
985mb
Interesting that the last 2 eye drops showed 100% RH at 700mb

https://i.imgur.com/AAVpgF0.png

That's because they probably missed the true CoC, especially with 36 knot winds at splashdown. I would say 982-983mb is its current pressure.

[Nimbus]

979mb extrap pressure on the latest pass, wow.

184930 1932N 08549W 6956 03046 9796 +194 +080 107035 036 028 000 00

Cozumel is a big island but I think the track is starting to bank right a little.

[GCANE]

Pretty consistent warm-core feature on IR

[weeniepatrol]

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ZETA HAS STRENGTHENED TO A HURRICANE...


Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Zeta has become a hurricane, with maximum sustained winds near
80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts.

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1320805512447811584

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Very rapid increase in organization on visual. Still plenty of time over water; unless mid-level shear ramps up again, we could see anywhere from 90-100 mph at landfall.

Zeta's intensification to a hurricane marks the 11th hurricane of the year, the most in a hurricane season since 2010.