ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

What does the surface pressure field look like?
If its shallow broad and elongated there are likely going to be multiple vorts.

[Aric Dunn]

probably the strangest flight path ive seen yet...

[northjaxpro]

PTC 9 just has to slow down for it to really gel and coalesce a centralized circulation. It really won't do this imo until iit approaches the Leewards. I anticipate in the next 12-24 hours for this to begin organizing.

[SouthFloridawx]

Just my opinion, but I was thinking something more like this. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200728/c6ddd6f21a60bd2f2544ad8b8e379cc1.jpg

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Personally, this has been my thinking for the last couple of days. A lot of hand-cringing about this model and that model while mega-blob continues to chug on to the west. Until we have one (or possibly two?) better defined surface vortex, then it's just unreasonable to assume models are initializing this correctly. I can't see this storm passing east of the Mona Passage, but believe this could well approach D.R. or Haiti from the southeast
It just comes down to how long it will take AND where consolidation finally occurs

Exactly. We will see.

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[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/A6Fy80H.gif
https://i.imgur.com/u84y5Fe.jpg
14.4/55.9, that's the LLC and convection popping on top.

If that’s the LLC and the MLC is wayyyyy WSW of it, this will take a while...

[Blown Away]

NHC says LLC moving at 280 degrees, IMO it appears closer to 300 and I predict PTC9 will move on the N side of the cone until next advisory.

[HurricaneFrances04]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1288184780798992385

What does this mean? That the SW "blob" as everyone is calling it, will flip to being the NE "blob" as it rotates?

Levi explained it quite well in his video last night. See here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psjfyScuucQ

He says that the circulation is elongated SW to NE, but it should become more S to N as it reaches the islands tomorrow and that is when he expects an actual circulation to consolidate.

[johngaltfla]

NHC says LLC moving at 280 degrees, IMO it appears closer to 300 and I predict PTC9 will move on the N side of the cone until next advisory.

I like the way you think. I have too much work to do this weekend. No time for this nonsense!

Everyone, repeat after me:

Fish, fish, fish

[Aric Dunn]

Here is the LLC that seemingly Recon avoided for some reason.

you can see it pretty clear the last few frames as the upper clouds fade a little.

Loop---
https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/s/L1uJtU

[Do_For_Love]

I can see definitely see the north-ish motion now that the SW lobe has become more like the SWW lobe, lol. Still super elongated, weird storm to follow. I guess the track really all depends on how it ends up developing and shifting around and what not. The NHC is explicitly uncertain itself in the last advisory as to intensity and track.

[Evil Jeremy]

That LLC looks to me more like a stray eddy getting ejected than a circulation gaining traction, IMO. Time will tell.

[sunnyday]

Local met just said that if the storm goes to So Fl, it isn’t likely to be a hurricane at that time. Is there enough info now to draw that conclusion?

[Hammy]

Why'd the plane fly completely around where the LLC is more than likely at rather than confirming it's closed?

[AxaltaRacing24]

Local met just said that if the storm goes to So Fl, it isn’t likely to be a hurricane at that time. Is there enough info now to draw that conclusion?

Sorta. While it is true that it isn't the likely outcome at this time, you cannot entirely rule it out.

[curtadams]

LLC is converging with the western blob, although the old western MLC is dying:

(orange is vorticity; blue is convergence; yes they're not perfect matches to LLC and MLC but pretty good)

[northjaxpro]

Local met just said that if the storm goes to So Fl, it isn’t likely to be a hurricane at that time. Is there enough info now to draw that conclusion?

I think it is a bit premature to draw that conclusion, especially given the difficulty of forecasting intensity of cyclones. Plus, sea surface temps in some spots in the area around the Gulf Stream are approaching 31 degrees Celsius. Bath watrer essentially. Plenty of octane fuel for this cyclone to really thrive upon in the coming days.

[SouthFLTropics]

Local met just said that if the storm goes to So Fl, it isn’t likely to be a hurricane at that time. Is there enough info now to draw that conclusion?

Hanna is on the white courtesy phone and would like to speak with that Met.

[BobHarlem]

Local met just said that if the storm goes to So Fl, it isn’t likely to be a hurricane at that time. Is there enough info now to draw that conclusion?

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1288223652618670082




Met is repeating the official forecast here, and isn't wrong, fwiw.

[GCANE]

Flying back for rum cocktails.
They did record some moderate rain rate though.
Core is slowly warming.

[Evil Jeremy]

Local met just said that if the storm goes to So Fl, it isn’t likely to be a hurricane at that time. Is there enough info now to draw that conclusion?

Hanna is on the white courtesy phone and would like to speak with that Met.

I'm not sure I'm in favor of local meteorologists (I'm assuming this was a TV met) sending messages that directly contradict the NHC. NHC isn't forecasting a Hurricane at this time. If the ghost of Hanna is to call anyone, it's the NHC, not the local TV met.

If NHC is not currently forecasting a Hurricane for Florida, due to the unknowns regarding the storm's potential future organization, land interaction, and shear, I think the TV met was correct to maintain that general messaging. For the moment.