ATL: LAURA - Models

[eastcoastFL]

18z intensity

[Blown Away]

Oh boy HWRF... big shift north

Wow, that’s over 100 miles N of 12z at 72 hours...

[ConvergenceZone]

Oh boy HWRF... big shift north

The shift is probably because it’s making it so strong. But will it be out to sea strong?

[Blown Away]

Oh boy HWRF... big shift north

The shift is probably because it’s making it so strong. But will it be out to sea strong?

Correction it is stronger...

This has the feel of one of those HWRF CAT 7 Runs...

[WeatherEmperor]

HWRF looks to go north of Hispanola. Rest of the run probably wont end well.....




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[Aric Dunn]

There are shifts.. but the same general track and synoptic set up and ridging are the same.

the track shifts are due to short term motion variations from interactions with the vorts well to the SW and just normal rotational wobbles during formational stages.

[SFLcane]

There are shifts.. but the same general track and synoptic set up and ridging are the same.

the track shifts are due to short term motion variations from interactions with the vorts well to the SW and just normal rotational wobbles during formational stages.

Shifts the can determine whether we tracking a batch of showers or a hurricane in the Bahamas.

[USTropics]

THe 12z Euro gave it the "ol college try" at 12z with a close in sharper vort then we have seen recently but to no avail.

The 12z euro ensembles showed a big uptick in members showing tropical storms/hurricanes compared to the previous two runs. The Parallel GFS ensembles have been bullish as well. It will be frustrating/disappointing to see if the operational Euro and GFS whiff so bad on genesis, but what a coup if the euro is right.

The parallel is really interesting as it sees a big weakness and sends 98l to the Carolinas

That's actually a different system (the 10/40% highlighted from NHC) near the coast of Africa that makes landfall in the Carolinas. 98L cuts through Caribbean and moves south of Cuba, following a similar path to 97L:


As others have stated on here earlier the globals will struggle until we have an established center. Dorian last season is a great example. An underforecasted center reformation to the north allowed for the system to avoid major interaction with GA. Still a wide array of possibilities with 98L, and the ensembles provide a better "overall" picture (if you were needing to create a forecast today).

[WeatherEmperor]

Continuing WNW theough the Bahamas




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[caneseddy]

HMON Cat 3 heading toward Andros. I think we likely know what will be the endgame most likely

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF is more than 120 miles N of 12z...

[Aric Dunn]

There are shifts.. but the same general track and synoptic set up and ridging are the same.

the track shifts are due to short term motion variations from interactions with the vorts well to the SW and just normal rotational wobbles during formational stages.

Shifts the can determine whether we tracking a batch of showers or a hurricane in the Bahamas.

Yes, but people are constantly posting asking if its going to recurve. so saying there is a "huge shift" is misleading to some that follow the forums.

[WeatherEmperor]

Here is the HMON for reference




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[DestinHurricane]

HMON wants to party like it's 1992

[caneseddy]

HMON ends run with a 945mb major hurricane heading for Southern Dade and extreme upper Keys on Tuesday

[WeatherEmperor]

Hwrf closing on Florida




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[SconnieCane]

HMON wants to party like it's 1992 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2020081918/hmon_ref_98L_42.png

Is that on the anniversary?

EDIT: And the HWRF agrees. Don't know if I've seen the two main operational globals and the hurricane models be so many worlds apart from each other.

[caneseddy]

HMON wants to party like it's 1992 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2020081918/hmon_ref_98L_42.png

Is that on the anniversary?

the day after.

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF 111hrs... @180 mile N shift from 12z... Wow, the model was pretty consistent through the big islands into Cuba waivering a few miles here and there...

[DestinHurricane]

HMON wants to party like it's 1992 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2020081918/hmon_ref_98L_42.png

Is that on the anniversary?

Day after but still eerie.