ATL: ETA - Models

[Hurricane Alexis]

Gordon 1994 comes to mind considering eta potentially being subtropical and hanging around a few days. Something like that wouldn't be destructive but very disruptive.

[chris_fit]

06 GFS Ens showing uptick in intensity over the 00Z Runs

[N2FSU]

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[DESTRUCTION5]

Here we go again...

06 GFS sheared nothing after 96 hr
00 EURO strong cane into the panhandle

Another day if changes.

[SFLcane]

Wow 06z with a hurricane before Cuba coming into SFL.

**Hurricane King 1950**

[SFLcane]

06z hwrf and Hmon are west.

[Blown Away]

06z hwrf and Hmon are west.

I think you mean east.

[SFLcane]

06z hwrf and Hmon are west.

I think you mean east.

Yep, thanks!

[Weatherboy1]

06z hwrf and Hmon are west.

I think you mean east.

Yep, thanks!

Next 24/36 hours crucial IMO. Need to see what is left of ETA circulation and/or when/where it “jumps” off the coast. Still think the MOST we get is an Irene-strength hurricane. More likely a high-end TS or ST storm

[SFLcane]

I think you mean east.

Yep, thanks!

Next 24/36 hours crucial IMO. Need to see what is left of ETA circulation and/or when/where it “jumps” off the coast. Still think the MOST we get is an Irene-strength hurricane. More likely a high-end TS or ST storm

Irene type storm is all you need for disruption power outages etc.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Guidance shows a scare to South Florida with a turn to the west last minute. Intensity guidance all keep this is a weak to moderate TS.

[TheStormExpert]

Here's the 06z HWRF with a 977mb hurricane over Palm Beach County in 99hrs. for what it's worth.

[AutoPenalti]

Here's the 06z HWRF with a 977mb hurricane over Palm Beach County in 99hrs. for what it's worth.

https://i.imgur.com/Cnp5Hco.png

Typical Summer time afternoon storm?

[TheStormExpert]

Here's the 06z HWRF with a 977mb hurricane over Palm Beach County in 99hrs. for what it's worth.

https://i.imgur.com/Cnp5Hco.png

Typical Summer time afternoon storm?

It's an outlier at the moment so take it with a grain of salt.

[aspen]

Here's the 06z HWRF with a 977mb hurricane over Palm Beach County in 99hrs. for what it's worth.

https://i.imgur.com/Cnp5Hco.png

Typical Summer time afternoon storm?

It's an outlier at the moment so take it with a grain of salt.

Technically, the HWRF was also an outlier showing a Cat 4/5 hurricane on approach to Nicaragua.

It’s been performing pretty well this year, so nothing can be excluded from it just yet. Everything depends on what Eta looks like in a few days after moving off of CA.

[TheStormExpert]

Typical Summer time afternoon storm?

It's an outlier at the moment so take it with a grain of salt.

Technically, the HWRF was also an outlier showing a Cat 4/5 hurricane on approach to Nicaragua.

It’s been performing pretty well this year, so nothing can be excluded from it just yet. Everything depends on what Eta looks like in a few days after moving off of CA.

We need to wait and see the state of Eta when it re-emerges into the Caribbean in a few days. I'm sure one of these models might be correct, but which one?

[Blinhart]

06z hwrf and Hmon are west.

I think you mean east.

Or Both

[Blown Away]

06z Navgem

[AdamFirst]

NAVGEM has been pretty consistent in that Bahamas to FL solution. Obviously it's just the NAVGEM but the models are all honing in on a westerly course at one point or another

[Nuno]

Center reformation will be key. I don't think it'll take until Friday for us to see a new circulation brewing, and probably not as far west as models would indicate. The next 48 hours will be interesting as it will shift the track east or west depending on where this occurs...