ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[us89]

Beta has now made landfall, according to the NHC:

...CENTER OF BETA CROSSES THE TEXAS COAST NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF
MATAGORDA PENINSULA...

Surface observations received after the issuance of the previous
advisory indicate that Beta's center crossed the Texas coast near
the southern end of Matagorda Peninsula around 10 PM CDT.

That is the 10th tropical cyclone landfall on the continental US so far this year, and the 9th at TS intensity or greater. (In case you've forgotten, the others were Bertha, Cristobal, Fay, Hanna, Isaias, Marco, Laura, and Sally.)

Wait, what was the Tropical Depression that made landfall?

Sally hit Florida as TD 19 before strengthening in the Gulf. So 9 TCs have hit the conus, but 10 TC landfalls.

[vbhoutex]

Seeing pretty significant amounts of rain still to fall in SE TX over the next couple of days on the short range models. So far 3.66" here.

Some metro areas S of Houston have had up to 9" according to some OCM. It appears official per HCFCD are in the 7" range in the Pearland area. With Beta hanging around through Wednesday we could easily see that much more through the next 2 days especially in areas S of I-10.

[Blinhart]

Any chance that the big mess of storms south of New Orleans gets its own CoC??? I'm not impressed with the mess at the Center of Beta. I know there is significant flooding South of Houston, but still not that impressive.

[SoupBone]

It's amazing because nothwest of Houston I've only had 1.25" in 2 days.

[wxman22]

Any chance that the big mess of storms south of New Orleans gets its own CoC??? I'm not impressed with the mess at the Center of Beta. I know there is significant flooding South of Houston, but still not that impressive.

Say that to the people dealing with flooding right now.... Bayou and creeks are going out of their banks in southwest Houston many motorist are stranded right now with rescues ongoing. And even heavier rain is forecast tomorrow than what fell today, with several models showing a core rain event tomorrow over metro Houston.

[utweather]

After this, we Beta have something more interesting and worthy to track this season, and it Beta not be a monstrous land threat like Laura.

And I promise I’m done with these terrible Beta puns.

I prefer tracking beneficial tropical rainstorms instead of deadly hurricanes.

[bob rulz]

Beta has now made landfall, according to the NHC:

...CENTER OF BETA CROSSES THE TEXAS COAST NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF
MATAGORDA PENINSULA...

Surface observations received after the issuance of the previous
advisory indicate that Beta's center crossed the Texas coast near
the southern end of Matagorda Peninsula around 10 PM CDT.

That is the 10th tropical cyclone landfall on the continental US so far this year, and the 9th at TS intensity or greater. (In case you've forgotten, the others were Bertha, Cristobal, Fay, Hanna, Isaias, Marco, Laura, and Sally.)

Do you happen to know what the record is? That's got be close.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[HouTXmetro]

So much for Beta being a dud... this is unfolding to to be a significant flooding event.

[Nimbus]

So much for Beta being a dud... this is unfolding to to be a significant flooding event.

Squall banding was forecast, but will we ever have the technology to accurately predict dry slot anomaly 24 hours in advance?

[HoustonFrog]

So much for Beta being a dud... this is unfolding to to be a significant flooding event.

Yeah huge rains in the Memorial area around Buffalo Bayou since yesterday late afternoon. Much more than I anticipated

[SoupBone]

I'm finally getting dumped on right now. It's really nasty.

[wxman22]

Beta was greatly underestimated by the models as far as rainfall totals.... WPC has issued a HIGH risk of flash flooding in the Houston area today. Freeways are even flooded now in the city.



NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
443 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Sep 22 2020 - 12Z Wed Sep 23 2020

...A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...

...Middle/Upper Texas Coast into southern Louisiana...
Beta is expected to continue a slow east-northeastward movement
along the Middle and Upper Texas Coast today with a prolonged
period of heavy rain expected from just north of Matagorda Bay to
Galveston Bay, including the Houston-metro area. Through at least
00Z Wednesday, Slow moving spiral inflow bands are expected to
oscillate in intensity and location between the center of the
circulation to just west of a significant dry intrusion noted in
the 700-300 mb layer over the Sabina River Valley. KHGX rainfall
estimates from an ongoing slow moving rainfall axis, located over
southern Harris County, were in the 7-10 inch range as of 08Z.
Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr with localized rates in excess of 3
in/hr are expected to persist during the day today. With
widespread 3-6 inch totals that have already fallen through 08Z
this morning between roughly Houston to Victoria, additional
localized rainfall maxima of 5-10 inches will allow for
significant flash flooding in and around the Houston metro area
which is surrounded by a High Risk. Deformation banding on the
north side of Beta's circulation center will be slow to move
northeastward through southeastern Texas today which accounts for
the Moderate Risk. Individual members of the 00Z HREF supported 24
hour totals of 5 to 10 inches, with local maxima of 15 inches, and
these numbers do not seem unreasonable.

Farther east, persistent low level confluence with 850 mb wind
speeds of 20-30 kt are expected to continue strong moisture
transport into the southern Louisiana coast...east of the
aforementioned dry intrusion. A limiting factor for heavy rain
extending more than 20-30 miles north of the coastline is weak
instability. Hi-res model runs from previous nights have been too
aggressive with northward penetration of heavy rainfall into
Louisiana, and while tonight's 00Z suite is not as aggressive,
there remains some west-east displacement of heavier totals. 24
hour totals of 3-5 inches appear likely. However, given far
southern Louisiana is a difficult area to flash flood given
marsh-like land areas, debated whether to remove the Moderate Risk
from continuity, but ultimately it was agreed that a narrow
portion could remain into southern Louisiana based on
collaboration with LCH/LIX.

[South Texas Storms]

Here we go again...another year, another significant flood event in Houston. I'm at around 6 inches since yesterday, with another 6 inches possible over the next 24 hours.

[wxman57]

10" in the past 12 hours in SW Houston. Same area hit by 3 major floods in the past few years. Only street flooding at my house, though. Northeastern half of Harris County got less than an inch. Most areas 1-2 inches. Looks like Brays Bayou is still within its banks, though. By the way, surface obs around Victoria indicate 15-20 kts. No evidence of anything near TS winds.

[Steve]

Beta has now made landfall, according to the NHC:

...CENTER OF BETA CROSSES THE TEXAS COAST NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF
MATAGORDA PENINSULA...

Surface observations received after the issuance of the previous
advisory indicate that Beta's center crossed the Texas coast near
the southern end of Matagorda Peninsula around 10 PM CDT.

That is the 10th tropical cyclone landfall on the continental US so far this year, and the 9th at TS intensity or greater. (In case you've forgotten, the others were Bertha, Cristobal, Fay, Hanna, Isaias, Marco, Laura, and Sally.)

Do you happen to know what the record is? That's got be close.

9 named storms landfalls in the US in 1916 and 2020.

[SoupBone]

Here we go again...another year, another significant flood event in Houston. I'm at around 6 inches since yesterday, with another 6 inches possible over the next 24 hours.

Unfortunately for those in SE Houston and near Bellaire (SW), it appears to be confined to that area for some reason. I got dumped on this morning but I'm still only at 3.2" over the last several days.

[SoupBone]

Looks like some dry air getting pulled in right now. Could that help create some dry pockets? It's very close to being pulled in where Houston is getting some banding.

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like some dry air getting pulled in right now. Could that help create some dry pockets? It's very close to being pulled in where Houston is getting some banding.

https://i.imgur.com/f4YpwWR.png

I think it's already happening.

[SoupBone]

Even more prominent in the lower levels.